Wily Mo Pena/Bronson Arroyo

April 3, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Anthony Agolia
Edited by KFFL Staff

The Cincinnati Reds have had a logjam in the outfield for years, with outfielders Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena all in the fold. So when first baseman Sean Casey left for Pittsburgh in the offseason, the natural assumption was that Dunn would move to first and both Kearns and Pena would finally have an opportunity to play every day. But one never can tell what the baseball gods have in store for us, as Pena was promptly shipped out to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for pitcher Bronson Arroyo March 20th.

This deal means that Arroyo, who was not expected to be a part of Boston's crowded starting rotation this year, is suddenly the No. 2 starter in the Reds' rotation. It also means that Pena, who has never managed to garner more than 335 at-bats in a single season at the major league level, is once again destined to be a platoon player. Boston's outfield is just as crowded as Cincinnati's has been, with Manny Ramirez in left, Coco Crisp in center and Trot Nixon in right. Ramirez and Crisp are both likely to play every day, which means Pena and Nixon will be splitting time in right field. Pena will get the nod whenever a left handed pitcher is on the mound, because Nixon struggles against southpaws, but Nixon will probably see plenty of time against right-handed pitchers.

This probably means fantasy owners everywhere will have to wait at least one more year to see what kind of power numbers Pena can produce if given 500 at-bats. His raw power at the plate is incredible, and even though he is only 24, over the past two seasons, he has hit 45 homers in 647 at-bats. He still hasn't quite figured out how to handle off-speed stuff, and is therefore prone to slide into long, miserable slumps, but this is a common problem for young power hitters. From a fantasy perspective, it is truly a shame that he probably won't even come close to setting a new career high in at-bats this year with the Red Sox. Bottom line, neither Trot Nixon nor Wily Mo Pena are worthy of roster spots in mixed leagues right now. Of course, if and when Nixon gets hurt again, sign Pena immediately and enjoy the power dividends.

It also means Arroyo should now be back on everyone's radar. He is moving from one hitter's park to another, so this trade really won't help him statistically. However, he will be given every opportunity to become the ace of an otherwise underwhelming staff that is currently being anchored by starting pitcher Aaron Harang. If nothing else, Arroyo has proven to be an innings eater with Boston, as he has averaged over 190 innings over the past two seasons. 2004 was his breakout year, as he went 10-9 with a 4.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 142 strikeouts and .249 BAA. Last year he took a definite step backward in every category except for wins, as he went 14-10, 100 strikeouts, 4.51 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .266 BAA. Despite these trends, Arroyo is clearly worthy of a roster spot in NL-Only formats, and could certainly be a respectable fifth starter in mixed leagues. He will probably receive less run support in Cincinnati, and the Reds bullpen might be even worse that Boston's, but a dozen wins, an ERA around four and a WHIP of 1.25 all seem very reasonable to expect.

Perhaps the most interesting upshot to this whole deal is that both second baseman Tony Womack and infielder Ryan Freel should play every day for Cincinnati. The emergence of rookie third baseman Edwin Encarnacion had created a three way competition for the starting second base job between Freel, Womack and Rich Aurilia. The departure of Pena means Freel can move to the outfield, a position he has played in the past, and Womack can start at second. Both Freel and Womack can flat run, as Freel swiped 36 bases in 369 at-bats and Womack stole 27 in 329 at-bats last year. Neither player is special in any other category, and Womack is an absolute liability in terms of batting average, but both are still fantasy assets because of their speed. Freel is being drafted late this year because Cincinnati hasn't officially announced he will start, so you might be able to wait until the 15th round or later, which is pretty remarkable considering he is second base, third baseman and outfield eligible. Womack isn't really being drafted at all, both because he hasn't been officially named the starter at second, and because few people actually realize he is still a valuable commodity at the age of 36. Make him your 20th round pick or add him from the waiver wire and laugh your way to an extra 30 steals.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Anthony Agolia
Anthony graduated with a B.A. in Philosophy from James Madison University in 2002, and is currently attending Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law. His aspirations include becoming the GM of the NY Mets and establishing the MLBPA (Major League Beer Pong Association). He strongly believes that the Yankees are the devil, the words flammable and inflammable shouldn't mean the same thing, and that there is no intelligent life anywhere in our universe. He has been with KFFL since 2005.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

Fantasy baseball players in the news (05/24)
Fantasy football players in the news (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Dee Gordon's problems at bat (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Will Smith, Yordano Ventura, Wil Myers, more (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: How trade talks develop (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Tyler Clippard, J.J. Putz (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Mark Teixeira's ill beginnings (05/23)
Fantasy NASCAR race preview: Coca-Cola 600 (05/23)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/23)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/23)