Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers

March 13, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Buck Davidson
Edited by KFFL Staff

The Texas Rangers traded second baseman Alfonso Soriano to the Washington Nationals during the offseason, leaving a gaping hole at the keystone sack. Perhaps the top candidate to fill that void is 23-year-old second baseman Ian Kinsler, who has shown an intriguing combination of power and speed in his three-year minor league career. Kinsler will compete with veterans Mark DeRosa and D'Angelo Jimenez for the Rangers' top job at second, and if he gets the nod he'll be a solid fantasy sleeper option in 2006.

UPSIDE:

Kinsler has made a rather rapid ascent through the Texas farm system, and has shown a knack for getting on base at every stop he's made. He has a lifetime .380 OBP and a .304 batting average in 1,219 minor league at-bats. His 2005 campaign at Triple-A Oklahoma City was particularly impressive: 23 homers, 94 RBI, 102 runs and 19 stolen bases in 131 games. Kinsler has good size for a second baseman, and there's no reason to believe that he won't continue to produce decent power numbers at the major league level - especially in the hitter-friendly confines of Ameriquest Field.

Once he gets on base, Kinsler is not shy about running, as he's stolen 42 bases the past two seasons. The Rangers will sorely miss Soriano's speed - their former second baseman accounted for 30 of the Rangers' 67 total stolen bases in 2005. It is this element of Kinsler's game the Rangers treasure most, and it's why he'll be given every opportunity to win a starting job this spring. If he continues along the path he's taken in the minor leagues, Kinsler is a legitimate candidate to amass 15 homers and 15 steals in 2006 - with a 20/20 season not beyond his grasp. Take a look at the numbers:

Table: Ian Kinsler Minor League Statistics

YEAR	AB/H	R	AVG.	HR	RBI	SB
2004 (AA)*	277/83	51	.300	9	46	7
2005 (AAA)	530/145	102	.274	23	94	19

* Does not include .402-11-52 and 16 steals in Class-A

Kinsler will almost certainly be available very late in your fantasy draft, and his track record makes him a potential late-round steal.

DOWNSIDE:

Minor league stats are nice to talk about, but the fact is, Kinsler has never faced one regular-season major league pitch. Kinsler's also not the only horse in the Rangers' second base race - the presence of veterans DeRosa and Jimenez increases the chance Kinsler will start the season at Triple-A. Jimenez slumped last season, but he's only a year removed from a solid .270-12-67 campaign with 13 steals for Cincinnati in 2004. DeRosa is an eight-year veteran who posted .243-8-20 in only 148 at-bats for Texas in 2005. The versatile DeRosa played first, second, short and the outfield for Texas last season, and he figures to stick around whether or not he wins a starting job.

Kinsler's batting average steadily dropped from .402 to .300 to .274 as he climbed from the Single-A to Triple-A level the past two years. Consequently, there are still legitimate questions as to whether or not he is ready to face major league pitching on a daily basis. Given his history, it is easy to imagine Kinsler getting off to a slow start this year - if he even wins the starting job. One possible scenario would have Kinsler starting the year at Triple-A, then moving to the major league club if Jimenez and/or DeRosa suffers an extended slump.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

Kinsler figures to win the starting job in Texas, and he'll likely bat ninth in one of the AL's most potent lineups. We project him to hit 12-15 homers and steal a similar number of bases in 2006, making him a player worthy of consideration in AL-Only and deep mixed leagues. If you decide to take a flyer on Kinsler, we recommend that you back him up with an established second baseman since the rookie-to-be will almost certainly struggle with his first look at big league pitching.

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Buck Davidson

Buck Davidson is a lifelong (the team's, not his) Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan who has been involved in fantasy sports since 1992....and been watching sports since his eyes first focused. He's far too skinny and slow to have ever played the game on a serious level, but enjoyed a notable and prosperous sandlot QB career until, at last, advancing years and condominium construction brought an end to both his NFL aspirations and the Florida sandlots. He has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.

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