Jon Papelbon, P, Boston Red Sox

February 17, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Scott Ehrlich
Edited by KFFL Staff

The Boston Red Sox's 2005 season wasn't nearly as magical as 2004. One positive that did arise out of it, however, was the emergence of P Jon Papelbon as a major league pitcher. Papelbon, a 2003 fourth round pick out of Mississippi State, first burst onto the scene with a stellar 2004 in Single-A Sarasota. He followed this up last season by dominating the upper minors and by certainly holding his own in his first taste of major league action.

Table: Jon Papelbon Career Stats

Year	Team	Level	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	WHIP
2003	Lowell	A	1-2	6.34	32.2	43	9	36	1.59
2004	Sarasota	A	12-7	2.64	129.2	97	43	153	1.08
2005	Portland	AA	5-2	2.48	87	59	23	83	.94
2005	Pawtucket	AAA	1-2	2.93	27.2	21	3	27	.87
2005	Boston	MLB	3-1	2.65	34	33	17	34	1.47

Papelbon has learned to locate his fastball and has also added a nasty splitter to his arsenal. At 6-4, 230 pounds, Papelbon gets a nice downward trajectory on his splitter. His heat works in the low-90s, although he can rev it up to the mid-90s when needed. A dominant college closer, Papelbon really has yet to refine his off-speed pitches, although his ability to locate has been so good he has yet to need them in the minors.

Despite pitching in relief at Mississippi State, the Red Sox immediately turned him into a starter. Despite struggling in his first season, the move has paid dividends by allowing Papelbon to get extensive minor league work before reaching the majors. His ultimate role in the majors is yet to be determined.

While he made three tremendously effective starts in August, the depth of the Red Sox rotation, along with some uncertainty in the bullpen, may lead Papelbon to start the season in relief. With only two above-average major league pitches as of right now, relief may be where he stays if he cannot find a viable off-speed pitch. For Boston, this may not be such a bad thing. RP Keith Foulke is a huge question mark this season and there is no lock to succeed him if he cannot regain his effectiveness. RPs Mike Timlin, David Riske and Julian Tavarez would probably be first in line to succeed him. Timlin is probably more useful to the Red Sox in a setup role while neither Riske nor Tavarez has ever shown a closer's mentality. RP Craig Hansen, a college closer at St. John's, was not effective in a late inning relief role last season.

Meanwhile, it was Papelbon who manager Terry Francona most trusted with the ball late in the games down the stretch. He showed plenty of moxie and was quite effective, making it possible that he could emerge as the closer by season's end. More than likely, he will start in a long-relief role and make a few spot starts. However, his command of his pitches, along with his reasonable long-term potential for some saves or wins, makes Papelbon a safe sleeper for this season and a solid long-term pickup in AL-Only leagues.

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Scott Ehrlich

Scott Ehrlich has been involved with sports for the last four years. He spent parts of three seasons working with various minor league baseball teams and internet sports sites. In 2004 he hosted his own sports talk show on 790AM in South Florida, featuring guests from all four major sports. Scott currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, FL but will be attending law school at the University of Florida in August, where he hopes to one day be the guy responsible for holding your favorite player out of training camp.

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