Francisco Liriano, P, Minnesota Twins

February 16, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by KFFL Staff

Two offseasons ago, the Minnesota Twins dealt All-Star C A.J. Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants for pitchers Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano. At the time of the trade, Liriano was the least prominent of the three hurlers involved. Even though Nathan has established himself as one of baseball’s finest closers, Liriano has the chance to become the prize catch of the deal. Liriano was arguably the best pitcher in the minor leagues in 2005 and he showed a glimpse of his overpowering stuff during a brief cup of coffee in Minnesota.

Table: Francisco Liriano Career Stats

Yr	Team	Level	W	L	ERA	WHIP	IP	K	H	BB	ER	HR	AVG
2001	AZ Giants	R	5	4	3.63	1.21	62.0	67	51	24	25	3	.232
2001	Salem-Keizer	R	0	0	5.00	0.89	9.0	12	7	1	5	2	.206
2002	Hagerstown	A	3	6	3.49	1.15	80.0	85	61	31	31	6	.210
2003	San Jose	A	0	1	54.00	10.50	0.2	0	5	2	4	0	.714
2003	AZ Giants	R	0	1	4.32	1.32	8.1	9	5	6	4	1	.192
2004	Fort Myers	A	6	7	4.00	1.38	117.0	125	118	43	52	6	.269
2004	New Britain	AA	3	2	3.18	1.56	39.2	49	45	17	14	4	.287
2005	New Britain	AA	3	5	3.64	1.25	76.2	92	70	26	31	6	.242
2005	Rochester	AAA	9	2	1.78	0.88	91.0	112	56	24	18	4	.177
2005	Minnesota	MLB	1	2	5.70	1.10	23.2	33	19	7	15	4	.221

POSITIVES

The sky is the limit for Liriano. The 6-2, 185-pound southpaw has the arsenal and the talent to eventually develop into a second ace next to SP Johan Santana in the Twins’ rotation. The Dominican native already throws three big league quality pitches which includes a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a slider and a changeup. Liriano’s fourth pitch is a curveball. Thanks to his filthy array of pitches, the 22-year-old Liriano led minor league baseball with 204 strikeouts last season.

Throughout the 2001 to 2004 seasons, Liriano had his share of success but was setback by injuries and issues with his command and mechanics. Many of these problems were related to Liriano’s inexperience with the craft of pitching, as he played in the outfield when he was signed by the San Francisco Giants as an amateur. Last season, the light switch finally turned on for Liriano and fans were treated to his raw talent. Liriano’s season at Triple-A Rochester was nothing short of phenomenal. He racked up twice as many strikeouts as hits allowed, averaging 11.1 punchouts per nine innings pitched, and fanned 4.7 hitters for every base-on-balls surrendered.

Even though his ERA does not show it, Liriano did not fall on his face in his major league debut. His impressive strikeout rate, 1.10 WHIP and opponent batting average of .221 are all positive signs, albeit with a small sample size. Liriano will probably struggle with his command at times as a rookie, but he will not have problems blowing batters away with his overpowering repertoire. Strikeout starting pitchers are scarce beyond the first ten rounds of fantasy drafts and Liriano most likely will be available that late in non-keeper leagues.

NEGATIVES

Opportunity is the biggest obstacle preventing Liriano from having an immediate impact in 2006. The Minnesota Twins enter spring training with Santana, Brad Radke and Carlos Silva set as their top three starting pitchers. P Kyle Lohse has a firm grip on the fourth spot entering spring training. Lohse has not performed well in the last two seasons, but he has started at least 30 games in four consecutive years. Liriano will compete with fellow youngster, P Scott Baker, for the fifth and final rotation spot. Baker is a polished pitcher who posted an admirable 3.35 ERA in 53.2 innings last season as a rookie. The Twins gave Baker more of an opportunity to help the parent club last season because he is more experienced and is two years older than Liriano. If Liriano loses out on the spring training battle, he will either return to Triple-A Rochester or earn a spot in the bullpen. The Twins' reasoning for a Rochester demotion would be to limit Liriano’s free agent service time and to place him in a routine where he starts every fifth day.

Minnesota’s track record indicates the bullpen is a strong possibility for Liriano. Back in 2002 and 2003, Santana started only 32 of his 72 total appearances as a hurler. Even though Santana was his best pitcher, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire was conservative with his usage. Santana did not become a full-time starter until 2004 at the age of 25; the same year he won the American League Cy Young Award. Santana and Liriano are both southpaws that retire batters with similar repertoires. When you consider Liriano’s lean build and his ripe young age of 22, a Santana-type career path might be Minnesota’s long-term plan. Additionally, the Twins lost their favorite southpaw specialist, RP J.C. Romero, in the offseason, so they are looking for somebody to fill that role in spring training.  

Liriano is also a health risk, as are many young pitchers. Shoulder problems were ultimately the reason why San Francisco unloaded Liriano prior to the 2004 season. Liriano’s shoulder issues were so serious they limited him to just nine innings pitched during the 2003 season. During the last two years, Liriano has enjoyed the healthiest seasons of his professional career. The bad news is, Liriano notched 191.1 innings of work at the age 21 and his 185 pound frame makes his past a little worrisome.

Liriano most likely will experience some command issues in the big leagues as a rookie. Prior to the 2005 season, Liriano posted 1.38 and 1.56 WHIP figures at Single-A Fort Myers and Double-A New Britain. While Liriano has come a long way, he is only two years removed from mediocrity. Unlike phenom P Felix Hernandez of Seattle, Liriano does not have the heavy fastball that can create groundouts when he misses with location. One of the reasons why Liriano’s major league ERA was at 5.70 is because he did surrender four gopher balls by missing with his fastball. The strikeouts will be there, but Liriano will not be the friendliest WHIP and ERA starter for your fantasy team.

SUMMARY  

Liriano’s value in short-term leagues is going to weigh heavily on whether or not he wins a rotation spot out of spring training. Fantasy players should monitor the Liriano-Baker competition very closely as it plays out in Fort Myers this spring. Liriano is also listed on the unrevised Dominican Republic World Baseball Classic roster, so there is a small possibility he will not be in camp for the majority of the Twins’ Grapefruit League games. Despite the playing time concerns, Liriano is well worth the risk because he is a quality talent. Liriano will probably last until the teens of your MLB universe draft and he is well worth rolling the dice on. Strikeout starting pitchers are scarce beyond the first 10-to-12 rounds and Liriano is a good bet to average at least nine punchouts per nine innings pitched. Liriano is an excellent keeper league choice and his stock should be adjusted at least three-to-four rounds higher.

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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