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Z - Impact AnalysisKris Benson, SP, Baltimore Orioles
By Nicholas Minnix The New York Mets completed a deal Jan. 21 that sent SP Kris Benson to the Baltimore Orioles for RP Jorge Julio and SP John Maine. Benson, a right-hander, immediately becomes one of the Orioles' top starters. Benson's deal calls for him to make $7.5 million in 2006 and 2007, with the same salary due in 2008 unless the team buys him out for $500,000. The Mets added Julio, who signed a one-year, $2.525 million deal through arbitration less than a week after the trade, to bolster a bullpen that lacked punch last season. Maine is a solid rookie who could conceivably compete for a spot at the back of New York's rotation. The team felt comfortable making the deal, though, because they believe that P Aaron Heilman, a righty, is ready to assume a similar position. The Orioles seemed rather desperate to improve a staff that was 10th in the AL in ERA at 4.56 and a group of starters that finished ninth in the league with a 4.82 ERA. Benson, a career underachiever, brings a lifetime 57-61 record and a 4.25 ERA to Baltimore. Last year, the former No. 1 overall pick in the 1996 draft missed all of April with a strained right pectoral muscle, but went 10-8 with a 4.13 ERA and 95 Ks for the Mets the rest of the way. The Mets acquired Benson from the Pittsburgh Pirates near the trade deadline of 2004 and signed him to his current contract that same offseason. He enjoyed his best season in Pittsburgh in 2000 when he went 10-12 with a 3.85 ERA and 184 Ks. Elbow trouble forced him to undergo Tommy John surgery in May 2001, and he wasn't able to pitch again until the following season, when he spent some time in the minors before returning to the Pirates. Since that time he's never fully lived up to his potential. He's shown declines in his strikeout totals while never recording an ERA of less than 4.00 or winning more than 10 games after his rookie season. Table: Kris Benson Career Statistics
Scouts always thought Benson had good stuff. The 31-year-old features a sharp, low-90s fastball, a good curve and slider as well as a mediocre changeup. He's always around the plate, as evidenced by his low walk totals and solid BB/K ratio. He does have a tendency to get hit around (career .263 BAA), which could indicate that he has the physical tools, but doesn't really understand how to pitch. The Orioles hope new pitching coach Leo Mazzone can have a great influence on Benson in that department. Benson's move to the AL could be a dangerous one. The junior circuit, with the designated hitter, features deeper lineups that are more likely punish a fastball, Benson's best offering. Benson leaves the NL East, which includes the Philadelphia Phillies (5.0 runs per game, second in the NL; .270 BA, tied for second), Atlanta Braves (4.7 runs per game, fourth; .265 BA, sixth), Florida Marlins (4.4 runs per game, eighth; .272 BA, first) and Washington Nationals (3.9 runs per game, 16th; .252 BA, 16th). He heads to the AL East, which features the Boston Red Sox (5.6 runs per game, first in the AL; .281 BA, first), New York Yankees (5.5 runs per game, second; .276 BA, second), Toronto Blue Jays (4.8 runs per game, fifth; .265 BA, ninth) and Tampa Bay Devil Rays (4.6, eighth runs per game; .274 BA, third). Benson also leaves pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium for the perennial launching pad at Camden Yards. This is an interesting move for the Mets, who included prospects in deals to land players like 1B Carlos Delgado and lured high-dollar free agents like CL Billy Wagner to New York in hopes of contending for a pennant. Mets GM Omar Minaya had coveted Julio, 26, for quite some time, and, despite last year's 3-5 record and 5.90 ERA, leaped at the chance to acquire him. He's a power pitcher with a mid-to-high 90s fastball and a hard slider, though he struggles with location. Julio was Baltimore's closer before current Blue Jays CL B.J. Ryan took the job from him. The right-hander is a career 11-24 with a 4.20 ERA, 83 saves and a K/9 ratio approaching 8.0. Maine, 24, started eight games and appeared in two others for the Orioles last season. The righty went 2-3 with a 6.30 ERA and 24 Ks in 40 innings. He spots a low-90s fastball well and mixes it with a decent slider, curve and changeup. In the minors, the 2002 sixth-round selection was a career 30-24 with a 3.24 ERA and K/9 ratio of greater than 10.0, but his repertoire doesn't figure to translate into strikeouts in the majors. From a fantasy standpoint, Heilman perhaps warrants the most intrigue. After going 5-3 with a 3.17 ERA, five saves and 106 Ks in 108.0 innings last season, some fans thought Heilman was their future closer. He's not really suited for that role and has certainly pushed for his chance to be a starter. In one of his seven starts he tossed a one-hitter against the Florida Marlins. He has that chance now. Heilman, 27, was 19-22 with a 3.68 ERA and a 7.6 K/9 ratio in the minors. In a handful of stints in 2003 and 2004, the majors weren't quite as kind to the 2001 first-round selection out of Notre Dame. Table: Aaron Heilman Career Statistics
Heilman began 2005 in the rotation, but then moved to the bullpen where he settled down and reverted to the arm angle that made him a successful collegian. He twirls a low-90s fastball as well as an above-average slider and changeup to keep hitters off-balance. The knock on him was his inconsistency and a desire to be too perfect with his pitches. If last year's numbers (0.68 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 45 Ks in 40 innings after the All-Star break) were any indication, he's well on his way to overcoming those problems. Most of Heilman's success in the majors has come as a reliever, but he's familiar with the role of starting pitcher. He will also get to make roughly half of his starts at Shea, where he was 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 61 Ks in 61 innings in 2005. This trade could be beneficial to both clubs. The Mets, though, may have been wise to get rid of Benson, who may have reached his ceiling and whose wife, Anna, is constantly a potential source of distraction. New surroundings could leave Benson overvalued when in fact he'll be facing some new and intimidating adversities. At this point, Julio and Maine have little, if any, fantasy value. Heilman, on the other hand, will embrace this opportunity and has shown an ability to retire major league batters. He's still largely unproven, though, so don't overestimate him. Heilman could qualify as a late-round steal with the potential to put up 10 to 13 victories, an ERA of less than 4.00 and 150 Ks if he pitches 180 innings - a total he's only approached once, in 2004. He has the ability to exceed those numbers but also the inexperience that could cause him to fall short of them.
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Author Bio
Nicholas Minnix KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010. The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter. Featured LinksTalk Sports 24/7! Recent articles:
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