Coco Crisp, OF, Boston Red Sox

February 6, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by KFFL Staff

After Beantown favorite, center fielder Johnny Damon, bolted to the rival New York Yankees, Red Sox fans were pulling their hair out for several weeks over the huge black hole in center field. Their fears were calmed in late January when the Boston Red Sox acquired outfielder Coco Crisp (real name Covelli) in a seven player trade with the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland sent Crisp, relief pitcher David Riske and reseve catcher Josh Bard to Boston for blue-chip third base prospect Andy Marte, relief pitcher Guillermo Mota, catcher Kelly Shoppach, a player to be named later and cash. The Red Sox saved a boatload of money by letting Damon walk to the Bronx for $52 million because Crisp is only on the books for $2.75 million in 2006. Crisp is also six years younger than Damon and has yet to reach his peak.

Coco Crisp was originally drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the seventh round of the 1999 draft out of Pierce Junior College in Los Angeles. Cleveland landed Crisp in a 2002 deadline deal that sent established southpaw Chuck Finley to St. Louis. When Cleveland acquired Crisp, he was a little-known prospect who was widely perceived as a long-shot. Prior to the 2003 season, Baseball America ranked Crisp as the 26th best prospect in the Cleveland system. Early in his professional career, Crisp was a raw athlete with unrefined baseball skills, but he has blossomed into a well-rounded player in recent years.

Table: Coco Crisp Career Stats

YEAR	TEAM	LEVEL	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB	BB	OBP	SLG
1999	Johnson City	Rookie	.258	3	22	55	27	44	.379	.354
2000	New Jersey	Single-A	.239	0	14	18	25	11	.301	.276
2000	Peoria	Single-A	.276	0	7	14	7	16	.377	.367
2001	Potomac	Single-A	.306	11	47	80	39	52	.368	.423
2002	New Haven	Double-A	.301	9	47	61	26	36	.365	.428
2002	Akron	Double-A	.406	1	4	9	4	3	.457	.531
2002	Buffalo	Triple-A	.238	0	2	3	1	0	.238	.286
2002	Cleveland	MLB	.260	1	9	16	4	11	.314	.386
2003	Buffalo	Triple-A	.360	1	24	42	20	26	.434	.511
2003	Cleveland	MLB	.266	3	27	55	15	23	.302	.353
2004	Cleveland	MLB	.297	15	71	78	20	36	.344	.446
2005	Cleveland	MLB	.300	16	69	86	15	44	.348	.465

POSITIVES

The switch hitting Crisp stands in at 6-0, 185 pounds and hails from a family of athletes. Crisp's father was a boxer, his mother was a world-class sprinter and his sister ice skates for a living. Crisp can thank his genetics for his wheels, though he has had only broken 15 stolen bases once in three seasons. Crisp's power surge in recent years has been the most significant turnaround of his young career. Prior to his breakout 15 home run campaign in 2004, Crisp had hit just 29 round-trippers in his entire professional career. Last season, Crisp validated his 2004 season by clubbing 16 home runs and raising his slugging percentage by 19 points. 

Even before he was dealt to Boston, Crisp was a good candidate for a breakout going into the 2006 season. Historically, players have their finest seasons in the 26-to-28 age range. When the trade to Boston was announced as official, Crisp's stock soared even higher. Boston's Fenway Park has historically been one of baseball's friendliest hitters' parks. According to park-factor statistics, Fenway Park was the seventh friendliest venue for home runs in 2005. By comparison, Jacobs Field in Cleveland was the second toughest place to hit home runs in the American League in 2005. Last season, Crisp hit 12 of his 16 round-trippers on the road. Crisp is licking his chops knowing he is moving to the corner of Yawkey Way and Brookline Avenue. He is a good bet to shatter his career high and smash at least 20 home runs in 2006. As for other slugging figures, Crisp will hit less doubles at Fenway, a shorter and skinnier field. In 2005, Crisp hit 27 of his 42 doubles at Jacobs Field.

Boston scored 910 runs last season, which was the highest total in Major League Baseball. Cleveland ranked seventh, scoring 120 fewer runs than the Red Sox. Boston also ranked first in on-base percentage and second in slugging percentage. Obviously, Crisp is in a better situation to score runs and drive them in. Barring injury, Crisp should break the century mark in runs scored and surpass 80 RBI. As for batting average, Crisp is a career .287 hitter and posted solid batting averages of .297 and .300 in the last two seasons. Even though batting average is a difficult statistic to predict, Crisp is likely to repeat his track record if not improve on it.

Entering the 2006 season, Crisp has three factors working heavily in his favor: age, hitting environment and supporting cast. These factors are the reasons why Crisp will likely enjoy his best offensive season in 2006.        

NEGATIVES

Even with his exceptional stopwatch speed, Crisp has only been a mediocre base stealer. For his career, Crisp has 54 thefts in 83 attempts - a 65 percent success rate. In 2004, Crisp swiped 20 bags and got gunned down 13 times for a 60 percent success rate. The widely accepted standard for quality base stealing is 75 percent, so the Red Sox are not going to tolerate the stealing mishaps. Boston is a " Moneyball" influenced organization that uses new age philosophies to operate their baseball club, so the front office is not a big proponent of base stealing. Plus, the Red Sox have such a juggernaut offense, there is little need for taking on risk with base stealing attempts. Crisp is going to have to improve his base stealing or face the possibility of getting less opportunities. 

Even though Crisp is perceived as a leadoff hitter, he does not walk enough to succeed in that role. His base-on-balls statistics and on-base figures are slightly below average. In fact, Grady Sizemore, not Crisp, was Cleveland's leadoff hitter last season. The Red Sox might not even utilize Crisp in the leadoff role because of their high regard for on-base percentage. Since Crisp is built like a leadoff hitter, managers tend to view him as a guy with great stolen base potential. Other than his speed, Crisp does not have many factors working in his favor to improve on his stolen base statistics. If Crisp repeats his 2005 theft totals of 15, managers should be pleased. Johnny Damon had his share of thefts during his stay in Boston and Crisp will continue to use his wheels to get his share. However, the bottom line is Crisp has little chance for growth and a decent chance for decline.

FANTASY SUMMARY

Crisp has shot himself into the top ten rounds of drafts coming off an improved performance in 2005 and by moving to an advantageous situation in Boston. Crisp is a good draft pick in the seventh round, but other managers may select him higher due to his increased exposure. Other than his stolen base figures, his numbers across the board should reach career highs. Since stolen bases are the " Holy Grail" of fantasy statistics, the threat of Crisp losing five thefts may be enough to scare some managers away as well.

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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