Ian Snell, P, Pittsburgh Pirates

January 30, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Jason Hoffmann
Edited by KFFL Staff

It seems like every year, a pitching prospect comes from out of nowhere and turns the fantasy world upside down with his dominance. From Florida Marlins SP Dontrelle Willis' 14-6 campaign in 2003 to San Francisco Giants SP Noah Lowry's 6-0 mark in 14 starts in 2004 to Pittsburgh Pirates SP Zach Duke's 8-2 record and 1.81 ERA last year, fantasy owners have seen innocent waiver claims on these unknown names turn their teams into champions. This year, Pirates SP Ian Snell will look to add his name to the list of impact rookie pitchers.

Snell was not considered an elite pitching prospect for Pittsburgh after he was drafted out of high school in the 26th round of the 2000 draft, and at 5-11 and 180 pounds Snell is not an imposing figure on the mound. However, his stature should not discourage fantasy owners from considering him. Smaller starters like Houston Astros SP Roy Oswalt (6-0 and 185 pounds) and New York Mets SP Pedro Martinez (5-11 and 180 pounds) have been fantasy stalwarts, so similar success for Snell is possible.

While Snell may not have been a 'can't-miss' prospect, he has forced his way into the Pirates' plans with hard work and excellent pitching throughout his minor league career. Snell has a career 2.95 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in the minors and has a proven track record of success, winning at least 11 games in each of the last four seasons. He has averaged impressive strikeout numbers (8.85 K/9 IP) while showing remarkable control (only 2.59 BB/9 IP). Snell made headlines at Triple-A Indianapolis last year when he twirled a no-hitter May 16 against the Norfolk Tides. Snell needed 102 pitches to complete the no-no, fanning nine hitters while walking only one. In his stay at Indianapolis, Snell had an 11-3 record, a 3.70 ERA, a sparkling 1.01 WHIP and averages of 8.36 K/9 IP and only 1.85 BB/9 IP.

Table: P Ian Snell, Minor League Stats (2002-2005)

Year	Team	Level	IP	W-L	ERA	WHIP	BB/K
2002	Hickory	A	139.2	11-6	2.71	1.23	45/149
2003	Lynchburg	A	116.1	10-3	3.33	1.19	33/122
2003	Altoona	AA	36.2	4-1	1.96	1.25	10/23
2004	Altoona	AA	151.0	11-7	3.16	1.24	40/142
2005	Indianapolis	AAA	112.0	11-3	3.70	1.01	23/104

Snell has had stints with the Pirates in each of the last two seasons. He was roughed up in his brief time with the club in 2004, posting a 7.50 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in 12 innings of work. Snell had a more extended audition in 2005, making 15 appearances (including five starts) that covered 42 innings. He struggled a little, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, but he finished the season in strong fashion by going 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in three September starts. Snell gave fantasy owners a glimpse of excellence in his second-to-last start, hurling eight shutout innings and notching his first major league win against the World Series-bound Houston Astros.

However, be careful not to rate Snell too highly based on the Astros' start. Snell is still working to add a changeup to his two-pitch repertoire, a fastball that reaches the mid 90's and a slider. He could have a tough time fooling hitters over five or six innings each outing if his changeup does not develop. He has never thrown more than 163 innings in a professional season, so come September, Snell could be worn out after a full season of starting - that is, if he even receives the chance to be a starter. Some people within the Pirates' organization feel Snell's eventual niche with Pittsburgh could be as a reliever because his smallish frame might cause stamina issues.

Despite the feelings of the Pirates' brass, Snell will be given a chance to win a spot in Pittsburgh's rotation in spring training. The bad news is, doing so may be easier said than done. The Pirates have four pitchers locked into their 2006 rotation plans – right-handed SP Kip Wells and southpaw SPs Duke, Oliver Perez and Paul Maholm. Snell's competition for the fifth spot looks to be quite fierce, with Ps John Van Benschoten, Sean Burnett and Victor Santos all vying for the final starting slot.

Two of Snell's competitors will go into spring training with major health question marks. Van Benschoten had surgery last January to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder and Burnett underwent Tommy John surgery in May, forcing both to miss the entire 2005 campaign. Because of this, Van Benschoten and Burnett have to be considered long shots to earn a starting role in 2006. Thus, it appears Santos should be Snell's biggest obstacle in gaining the fifth starting spot.

Even though Santos has two years experience as a starter in the majors (as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers), don't assume he has the edge on Snell. Santos burst onto the scene for fantasy owners in the first half of 2004 when he compiled an 8-3 record and a 4.08 ERA for Milwaukee, but he soundly disappointed owners with an abysmal second half (3-9, 5.97 ERA, 1.53 WHIP). Since 2004 was Santos' first full season as a starter, the hope was his production would become more consistent with experience. He started strong again last year – despite a 2-9 record, Santos had a 3.50 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. But the wheels fell off again in the second half (7.45 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, .327 BAA), and Santos was relegated to the Brewers' bullpen and was eventually released. This inconsistency could give Snell a legitimate chance at the fifth spot.

FANTASY OUTLOOK

At this point, Snell faces an uncertain role in 2006. Is he a starter? Will he be used out of the bullpen? Could he start the year in Triple-A Indianapolis again? Without a definite answer, it's hard to predict anything more than a handful of wins, an ERA close to 4.00, a WHIP around 1.25 and about one strikeout per inning. With numbers like this, Snell is worth a late-round draft flyer in NL-Only leagues or keeper leagues.

However, even if your draft does not take place right before Opening Day, keep a close eye on the Pirates during spring training to see how their rotation situation plays out. If Snell emerges as the Pirates' fifth starter, he could be in line for around 10 wins with similar numbers mentioned above. In this case, he would be a solid free agent addition for fantasy owners. With Snell's tenacity and proven minor-league track record, he would have a fighting chance to make an impact on fantasy rosters. Who knows - Snell could be the next seldom-known addition who jump starts owners toward a title run.

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Jason Hoffmann

A lifelong Wisconsin resident, Jason Hoffmann has seen plenty of good (Green Bay Packers) and bad (Milwaukee Brewers) in sports. Armed with a statistics degree from UW-Madison, Hoffmann prides himself in finding important trends that cannot be seen by simply scanning box scores. Hoffmann has been involved in competitive fantasy baseball and basketball since 1999 and a KFFL contributor since 2004.

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