Dioner Navarro, C, Los Angeles Dodgers

January 30, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Anthony Agolia
Edited by KFFL Staff

On Jan. 11, 2005, the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired C Dioner Navarro and three minor league pitchers from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for OF Shawn Green. Just a day earlier, the Diamondbacks acquired Navarro, P Javier Vazquez and P Brad Halsey from the New York Yankees in exchange for P Randy Johnson. Now, just over one year later, Navarro is slotted to be the starting backstop in Los Angeles and within the organization, expectations are high that he will be the next addition to the organization's famed lineage of star catchers.

Despite the modern shortage of fantasy-viable catchers, Navarro does not figure to be a very prominent factor in 2006. His minor league statistics reveal a disciplined yet relatively unimposing offensive presence. The book on Navarro is that he is a smart, confident hitter, but lacks any real power, and doesn't figure to develop it any time soon.

Table: Dioner Navarro Career Stats

Year	Level/Team	AB	HR	RBI	AVG	BB	SO	OBP
2001	RK (NYY)	143	2	22	.280	17	23	.345
2002	A (NYY)	330	8	36	.239	39	61	.327
2003	A (NYY)	197	3	28	.299	17	27	.364
2003	AA (NYY)	208	4	37	.341	18	26	.388
2004	AA (NYY)	255	3	29	.271	33	44	.354
2004	AAA (NYY)	136	1	16	.250	14	17	.316
2004	NYY	7	0	1	.429	0	0	.429
2005	AAA (LAD)	241	6	29	.266	28	24	.366
2005	LAD	176	3	14	.273	20	21	.354

Yet Navarro has consistently been named one of the best prospects in baseball over the past 18 months, and both the Dodgers front office and manager Jim Tracy seem to love the guy. He was not considered a top prospect until he nearly hit .300 in about 200 AB at Single-A ball, and then hit .341 with a .388 OBP in about 200 AB in Double-A. Even though 2004 saw his BA drop, his value amongst execs remained high, mostly because he continued to demonstrate superb patience at the plate, posting K to BB ratios of 33-44 in Double-A and 14-17 in Triple-A. Going 3-for-5 in his first cup of coffee with the New York Yankees probably didn't hurt his image either. Interestingly enough, when he was dealt to Arizona, the general perception was that his inclusion was just as integral to the deal as Vazquez' was. The fact that he was traded straight-up for a bona fide run producer like Shawn Green is truly indicative of how high his star had risen by 2005. With the Dodgers organization, he has continued to improve. While his BA appears to have leveled off in the .270 range, he drew more walks than strikeouts in Triple-A, and did almost the same in 176 AB for the Dodgers.

Projected over a full season, Navarro's 2005 performance would have yielded about 10 HR, 50 RBI and 60 R. Together with a respectable BA, these numbers are fairly encouraging for a rookie playing at a rather barren fantasy position. One should expect all of these numbers to improve slightly if he can entrench himself as Los Angeles' every day catcher. Also worthy of note is Navarro is a very confident ball player, perhaps even to a fault. For example, when asked at what age he started playing baseball, he said: " When I was four." And then, when asked at what age he realized that he would become a pro, he responded, " When I was four." While some in Los Angeles have worried that this may evolve into a sense of cockiness, the Bronx brass actually considered it a plus, because it is an attribute that is characteristic of players who have succeeded in the pressure cooker that is New York. The concern is that he will stop working to keep his weight down, but the odds are that his self assurance will only expedite his progress. In his second tour of duty at the major league level, you can expect a .275-12 HR-60 RBI-75 R season, and don't be surprised if his run total rises into the 80's, due to his proclivity for getting on base.

The wild card in this equation is free agent C Bengie Molina, who spurned a three year, $18 million dollar proposal from the New York Mets earlier this offseason, only to now be seeking a one year, $6 million dollar deal from anyone. Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti has considered offering Molina a package of this sort because he thinks that the Dodgers may have enough talent to compete for the pennant in a weak western division, and has misgivings about asking a rookie to manage a veteran pitching staff all by himself. But it is unclear how seriously Colletti is considering this move, and all has been quiet on the western front for over ten days now.

To further complicate things, even if Molina isn't acquired, the LA Times has reported that the Dodgers expect another highly touted catching prospect, Russell Martin, to challenge Navarro for the job at some point during the summer. Therefore, it would be wise to proceed with caution when devising a draft strategy for Navarro. Before you can consider drafting him at all, wait to see where Molina lands. If it is elsewhere, which seems to be the more likely scenario (Toronto, perhaps), Navarro should be Los Angeles' opening day catcher. This makes him worth selecting towards the end of your draft, but don't expect to him to be floating around on waivers after the fact. Because of his status as a top prospect, he carries more name value than you might think.

Indeed, it is fairly likely that Navarro could end up being something like the 10th catcher selected in your average fantasy league, which would actually make him a bargain. To put things in perspective for you, Jason Kendall was the 10th ranked C in fantasy last season, and he hit .271 with zero HR. Due to the lack of quality offensive catchers, if Navarro does in fact produce the .275-12-60-75 season that we predict, he would actually be a top five or six fantasy catcher, provided that the rest of the field continues to hit at the same rate as it did in 2005. If this seems hard to believe, remember that Detroit Tigers C Ivan Rodriguez, the fifth-best fantasy catcher in 2005, finished with .276-14 HR-50 RBI-71 R.

This does not mean that you should rush to draft Navarro once the big five (Cleveland Indians C Victor Martinez, Boston Red Sox C Jason Varitek, Minnesota Twins C Joe Mauer, New York Yankees C Jorge Posada and Rodriguez) are off the board. As a general rule, it is usually unwise to get caught up in a " run" at a scarce position like catcher, and in particular, you can afford to wait to get Navarro. While others are wasting eighth and ninth round picks on fellows like Baltimore Orioles C Ramon Hernandez, you can stock up at other, deeper positions and snag him in the final few rounds of your draft. And if you doubt that he will actually produce the .275-12-60-75 that we predict, keep looking at those OBP numbers from the past three years, especially at the .354 he posted during his 175 AB with Dodgers last year at the age of 22. This plate discipline will translate into more hits and runs in 2006, and those numbers might just translate into Navarro being one of those annual, late-round sleeper picks made by many an astute owner in April.

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Anthony Agolia
Anthony graduated with a B.A. in Philosophy from James Madison University in 2002, and is currently attending Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law. His aspirations include becoming the GM of the NY Mets and establishing the MLBPA (Major League Beer Pong Association). He strongly believes that the Yankees are the devil, the words flammable and inflammable shouldn't mean the same thing, and that there is no intelligent life anywhere in our universe. He has been with KFFL since 2005.

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