Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers

January 17, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Jason Hoffmann
Edited by KFFL Staff and Ryan Dodson

A year after the Milwaukee Brewers welcomed a pair of rookies (2B Rickie Weeks and SS J.J. Hardy) to their everyday lineup, another rookie will get his shot in the Brewers’ infield. 1B Prince Fielder, a prospect that has created a serious buzz among fantasy owners, will assume the first base duties for the Brewers in 2006.

If family bloodlines are any indication, Fielder has the tools to be a prolific power hitter at the major league level. His father, Cecil Fielder, swung a thunderous bat in his day, mashing 51 homers for the Detroit Tigers in 1990 while topping 30 home runs in five other seasons. Cecil’s natural position was first base, like his son. Like his dad, Prince is a massive figure (6-0, 260 pounds) who can hit the ball a mile. His tales of tape measure shots actually go back to Cecil’s days with the Tigers. At the age of 12, Prince would take batting practice at Detroit’s old Tiger Stadium and would routinely send pitches into the upper deck!

Table: 1B Prince Fielder, Stats (2002-2005)

Year	Team	Level	Games	HR	RBI	AVG
2002	Ogden	Rookie	41	10	40	.390
-	Beloit	A	32	3	11	.241
2003	Beloit	A	137	27	112	.313
2004	Huntsville	AA	135	23	78	.272
2005	Nashville	AAA	103	28	86	.291
-	Milwaukee	NL	39	2	10	.288

The similarities between father and son end there, however. While Cecil was a right-handed hitter, the younger Fielder bats from the left side of the plate. The elder Fielder only had a .255 career batting average, with a high mark of .277 achieved in 1990. Prince has shown he can hit for average, batting .288 in his three-plus seasons in the minors and .288 in 59 at-bats with the Brewers last year.

Plus, Cecil exhibited absolutely no speed in his 13 years in the majors, notching only two career stolen bases. Prince, meanwhile, stole eight bases last season and swiped 11 bases for Double-A Huntsville in 2004, incredible totals for a 260-pound man. Though he may never match those totals at the major league level, the steals show that Fielder has athleticism, which could make him an all-around hitting threat capable of legging out infield hits, stretching singles into doubles, and so on. Thus, Prince does not appear to be your typical " all-or-nothing" power hitter.

While Fielder’s minor-league stats have been impressive, the thing that most excites Milwaukee fans (and fantasy owners) is Fielder’s youth - he won’t turn 22 until May. Fielder has been one of the youngest players at every stop of his professional career, yet he has managed to put up impressive batting and power numbers everywhere he’s been. Since he is still maturing at the plate, Fielder has the potential to be at least a perennial .280-30-100 hitter. This means he has the chance to be one of the elite fantasy players in all of baseball.

Fielder will replace 1B Lyle Overbay in Milwaukee, who was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays during the winter meeting in December. Overbay was a steady player in his two seasons with the Brewers. He posted a .289 batting average with 18 home runs with 80 RBI per season and played solid defense at first base. However, the Brewers felt he was close to reaching his ceiling in terms of power, if he hadn’t reached it already. On the other hand, Fielder could give them a more imposing presence at first base for 2006 and beyond (even if it meant a slight decrease in defensive ability at the position).

The Overbay trade can also be considered a cost-cutting move for Milwaukee. Though Overbay’s salary in 2005 was $446,000, he was eligible for salary arbitration and figured to get a hefty raise. On Jan. 16 Overbay got just that, agreeing to a $2.525 million contract with Toronto for the 2006 season. While that kind of raise may seem minimal to a team like the Blue Jays or the New York Yankees, small-market teams like the Brewers need to save every dollar they can to remain competitive. With a younger, cheaper alternative waiting in the wings (Fielder), the Brewers decided the future was now and sent Overbay packing.

Fortunately for Fielder, the Brewers don’t need him to put up monster numbers right away. You may not realize it, but the Brewers’ offense in 2005 was actually pretty potent. They only batted .259 as a team, tied for ninth in the NL, but they were sixth in the NL with an average of 4.48 runs per game and tied for fifth in the league with 175 home runs. Plus, Milwaukee’s Miller Park gives its hitters a slight advantage. Last year, the Brewers slammed 91 home runs in 81 games and averaged 4.64 runs per game there. Adding Fielder to the mix on a full-time basis could help Milwaukee rise even further up the offensive charts. 

The Brewers may opt to use Fielder as their No. 5 hitter, behind proven power hitters like OF Carlos Lee (.265 BA, 32 HR, 114 RBI) and OF Geoff Jenkins (.292 BA, 25 HR, 86 RBI). Or, the Brewers may choose to bat Fielder in the No. 3 slot, ahead of Lee and Jenkins and right after Weeks. Weeks batted .239 with 13 home runs, 42 RBI and 15 steals in 96 games a year ago but labored with a torn thumb ligament. He had surgery in the offseason and is expected to be 100 percent by spring training, so he should see his numbers improve across the board in 2006. Either way, Fielder should have the advantage of hitting in a prime spot in the Brewers’ lineup.

If you’re looking to predict Fielder’s production this year, consider last year’s stats from Philadelphia Phillies 1B Ryan Howard. Like Fielder, Howard is a big first baseman (6-4, 230 pounds) who was a home run machine in the minors (104 home runs in three-plus seasons). Howard excelled in his first chance at full-time duty with Philadelphia, batting .288 with 22 homers and 63 RBI in only 88 games. Howard is four years older than Fielder, but given his talent there’s a chance Fielder could come close to matching Howard’s first-year numbers in 2006.

From a fantasy perspective, Fielder’s raw talent should allow him to hit 20-25 home runs and drive in 70-80 runs. He may have troubles hitting consistently in his first year at the major league level, so expect a batting average in the .260-.280 range. This is enough to make Fielder a solid option in NL-Only leagues, and he may be worth taking in the latter rounds of mixed league drafts. If Fielder is somehow available in keeper leagues, do everything possible to acquire his services. Fielder has all the talent needed to be one of the elite fantasy players for the next decade, if not longer.

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Jason Hoffmann

A lifelong Wisconsin resident, Jason Hoffmann has seen plenty of good (Green Bay Packers) and bad (Milwaukee Brewers) in sports. Armed with a statistics degree from UW-Madison, Hoffmann prides himself in finding important trends that cannot be seen by simply scanning box scores. Hoffmann has been involved in competitive fantasy baseball and basketball since 1999 and a KFFL contributor since 2004.

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