Corey Patterson, OF, Baltimore Orioles

January 16, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Anthony Agolia
Edited by Ryan Dodson

On Jan. 9, 2005, the Chicago Cubs finally cut ties with OF Corey Patterson, trading him to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for IF Nate Spears and P Carlos Perez.  Entering the 2005 season, such a transaction seemed about as likely as the Cubs trying to trade SP Mark Prior during the offseason, or their cross-town rivals winning the World Series in four games.  Patterson was coming off of a long-awaited, breakout 2004 campaign in which he had 32 SB and 24 HR at the age of 25, while establishing himself as one of the better defensive CFs in the game.  But this is Major League Baseball, where any and everything can and will happen.  Just one year later, after spending much of the winter dangling Patterson over a sizzling hot stove, Cubs GM Jim Hendry was able to secure only two relatively unknown prospects in return for him.

From the time he was selected third overall in 1998 amateur draft, most scouts and executives have considered him to be the top prospect in all of baseball.  At the age of 19, he went .320-20-79 with 33 SB in A ball, and the next year he went .261-22-82 with 27 SB at AA.  Additionally, he has always been viewed as having a terrific makeup, possessing both baseball intelligence and a solid work ethic for a young player. Cubs fans and fantasy players everywhere anxiously awaited his major league debut, and in 2004 Patterson delivered with his aforementioned breakout season. 

Table: Corey Patterson, OF, Baltimore Orioles – Career Stats

Season	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	K	BA	OBP
2000	11	9	2	2	1	14	.167	.239
2001	131	26	4	14	4	33	.221	.266
2002	592	71	14	54	18	142	.253	.284
2003	329	49	13	55	16	77	.298	.329
2004	631	91	24	72	32	168	.266	.320
2005	451	47	13	34	15	118	.215	.254

That Hendry had to practically beg Orioles VP Jim Duquette to take Patterson off his hands is even more incredible when one considers how long the Cubs have waited for a promising positional player to emerge from their system.  The last positional farmhand to become an All-Star for the Cubs was Joe Girardi in 2000  (Lance Johnson and Sammy Sosa were White Sox products, Michael Barrett and Henry Rodriguez were Montreal Expos and Luis Gonzalez became an All-Star in Arizona).  One would think that Chicago would have asked for nothing less than the sun, moon and stars in exchange for a centerfielder with his kind of five-tool prowess, but instead they practically gave him away. 

The circumstances leading to Patterson’s demise constituted the perfect storm of baseball adversity: the pressure of being the top prospect in the organization; of igniting the offense of a club that has lacked a legitimate leadoff hitter since 2B Eric Young in 2001; of being the savior of a franchise that has waited longer than any other for a championship, of finally gaining command of the strike zone; and most importantly, of doing all of these things immediately.  By midsummer, with Patterson’s strikeout total skyrocketing and his on-base percentage plummeting, Chicago’s boo-birds started chirping loudly.  Patterson was demoted to the minor leagues, and even though he hit well enough to be recalled, he never silenced the jeers of the Wrigley faithful.

But make no mistake, Patterson’s problems in 2005 were not a complete shock to anyone.  His home run stroke has been well publicized, but so has his failure to change his approach with two strikes.  The more fundamental problem is that his pitch selection has never been good, and thus he has never been very adept at drawing walks or making consistent contact.  The last time he hit over .266 in a full season was 1999 for Single-A Lansing.  The highest OBP (on-base percentage) he has posted at the major league level is .329, but that came during his injury-shortened 2003 season, when he had only 329 AB.  Even during Patterson’s coming-out party of 2004, he struck out 168 times, while he manufactured just 45 BB and hit only .266.  So while his speed is exciting, he lacks the discipline of a top-of-the-order batter; and while his power is titillating, he lacks the consistency required to be an effective run producer.

Patterson’s 2006 fantasy value entirely depends upon his psychological development, not his baseball ability.  The sky is the limit of his offensive potential; he is one of perhaps five players on the planet that one could imagine developing into a 50-50 threat.  Yet he is also one of many young phenoms that could end up out of baseball in five years.  Neither outcome is very likely.  Instead, precisely because he struggled so mightily in 2005, we predict Patterson will return to nothing less than his 2004 form, and more.  The pressure is finally off, and he has always been regarded as a mentally tough ballplayer.  To illustrate how different things are for him now, the folks at Camden Yards are not even sure if Patterson will be their opening day centerfielder; the Cubbies had him penciled in at centerfield for the next quarter century the moment they drafted him.  Orioles vice-president Mike Flanagan has stated that Patterson will compete with OF Luis Matos and rookie OF Nick Markakis for a starting gig in the Baltimore outfield.  While this would appear to hinder his fantasy value, the true effect of this arrangement is precisely the opposite. 

While it is difficult to predict how a young player will respond to this kind of adversity, a .275-25 HR-90 RBI-90 R-25 SB season is a very real possibility.  His average draft position will probably be no higher than his total strikeouts (think around 150), while by August he will probably be a top 50 fantasy player.  What you have here, then, is the kind of opportunity that rarely presents itself in fantasy baseball – the chance to draft a true three-category player towards the end of your draft, because most of your fantasy peers will view him in the same manner as Duquette. 

With respect to his draft position, it would be wise to closely monitor the rhetoric flowing out of Baltimore’s front office, and if word spreads that he is starting, you might need to go after him as early as the 10th round.  And if he struggles in the early going, don’t panic – stash him on your bench and just wait for the bird to fly.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Anthony Agolia
Anthony graduated with a B.A. in Philosophy from James Madison University in 2002, and is currently attending Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law. His aspirations include becoming the GM of the NY Mets and establishing the MLBPA (Major League Beer Pong Association). He strongly believes that the Yankees are the devil, the words flammable and inflammable shouldn't mean the same thing, and that there is no intelligent life anywhere in our universe. He has been with KFFL since 2005.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

Fantasy baseball players in the news (05/24)
Fantasy football players in the news (05/24)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Dee Gordon's problems at bat (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Will Smith, Yordano Ventura, Wil Myers, more (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: How trade talks develop (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Closer Hot Seat: Tyler Clippard, J.J. Putz (05/23)
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Mark Teixeira's ill beginnings (05/23)
Fantasy NASCAR race preview: Coca-Cola 600 (05/23)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - AL (05/23)
Fantasy baseball closer depth charts - NL (05/23)