Octavio Dotel, RP, New York Yankees

January 10, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Steven Kraser
Edited by Ryan Dodson

The New York Yankees, who started the offseason hot stove period in an uncharacteristically slow fashion, signed RP Octavio Dotel on Dec. 29. This was just one of many additions to New York that happened in rapid fire as the team once again became very active in the free agent market. Dotel's deal is for one year at $2 million, with a possible additional $1.25 million in incentives.

The signing of Dotel completes an almost complete makeover of the Yankees' erratic middle relief corps, which has been a negative for New York since their last world championship in 2000.

THE GAME PLAN

The deal is a bit of a gamble for New York, as Dotel missed most of last season after undergoing " Tommy John" surgery to replace a ligament in his right throwing elbow. Dotel, 32, went 1-2 last season with the Oakland Athletics before the surgery with a 3.52 ERA in 15 games. He was able, however, to record seven saves. The optimistic timeframe, coming from Dotel's camp, for his return to action is sometime during the first couple of months of the season. But the team is aware that Dotel's return could take longer, more realistically the second half of the season, based on other players' history of recovery from the type of surgery.

The Yankees see minimal risk with Dotel's deal and plenty of upside. There is just a one-year commitment, and New York can wait on him because he's not the only addition to the bullpen. New York plans to use the newly inked righthander Kyle Farnsworth (Detroit Tigers/Atlanta Braves with 16 saves and 2.19 ERA in 2005) and lefthanded specialists Ron Villone (Seattle Mariners/Florida Marlins) and Mike Myers (Boston Red Sox) – to complement the returning righthander Tanyon Sturtze in attempting to finally have a solid bridge to extraordinary CL Mariano Rivera (43 saves and 1.38 ERA). To add some potential depth, the Yankees are also bringing back favorites Ramiro Mendoza from the right side, as well as Al Leiter (lefthanded), with minor league deals and the potential to win a bullpen spot in spring training.

When healthy, Dotel will have the potential to thrive as one of the Yankees' setup men, as he's proved he can be effective in long or short relief:

Table: Dotel's Statistics (2003-2005)

Year	Team	G	IP	H	WHIP	R	ER	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA	BAA
2003	Hou	76	87.0	53	0.97	25	24	31	97	6	4	4	2.48	.172
2004	Hou/Oak	77	85.1	68	1.18	38	35	33	122	6	6	36	3.69	.217
2005	Oak	15	15.1	10	1.37	6	6	11	16	1	2	7	3.52	.185

Dotel has seen too many base runners over the past three seasons (1.10 WHIP average), but the Yankees needed some strikeout punch in the middle relief. Dotel can provide that (1.25 average strikeouts-to-innings ratio). Opposing batters have also had a tough time in the box versus Dotel (.194 BAA over the past three seasons).

The Yankees have been toying with their middle relief the past few seasons, and Dotel should help improve a bullpen that ranked 10th in the AL in bullpen ERA. Given the fact that Rivera's statistics are included, the bullpen was abysmal in 2005 – with only the relief corps of the Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Devil Rays and Boston Red Sox ranked lower.

CONCLUSION

The Yankees will not rush Dotel back, with Sturtze providing some help from the right side and Mendoza providing some potential bullpen depth until Dotel returns. The key to both Dotel's and the team's success is how well he adjusts back to being a setup man. Maybe the pressure of not being on the spot almost every time out will go a long way with Dotel. New York is pulling out all stops to get back to the World Series and not burn out Rivera by the postseason.

BOTTOM LINE

Recovery from " Tommy John" surgery can be tricky. With a return date projected between late April and July, and his projected setup role, Dotel will not be in the saves mix. When healthy, Dotel most likely would not be the first closer replacement option if Rivera would go down. Farnsworth, who converted all 10 save opportunities after joining the Braves last season, would probably be first in line. Look at Dotel is a good risk/reward option, but fantasy owners should wait on him.

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Steven Kraser

Steven Kraser is a management consultant for the sports management and entertainment business. He has consulted for professional and college franchises, leagues and news agencies in the areas of strategy, finance, and business operations. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

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