Jeromy Burnitz, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

January 9, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Scott Ehrlich
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Baltimore Orioles vice-president of baseball operations Jim Duquette thought he would enter 2006 with Jeromy Burnitz penned in as the starting right fielder. Instead, Burnitz and his agent, Howard Simon, pulled an about face, and elected to spurn the agreed upon two-year, $12 million deal with Baltimore for a one-year, $6 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, that also contains a mutual option for a second year at the same price, with a $700,000 buyout. Whether Simon is to be believed when he says that the decision was about problems with the contract language regarding the physical, or Duquette, when he says that he believes Burnitz simply had a change of heart, is a matter of debate. What is not likely debatable is what playing in spacious PNC Park as opposed to compact Camden Yards will do to Burnitz’s power numbers after spending the last two seasons at hitters' parks Coors Field and Wrigley Field respectively.

Even at 36, Burnitz is still a prodigious power hitter. He has hit over 30 home runs six times, most recently with the Rockies in 2004. Last season, with the Cubs, Burnitz hit 24 home runs and drove in 87, while hitting .258 and striking out 109 times. While down from the monster numbers he put up the previous season in Colorado, they do serve as a pretty good estimate of what Burnitz is still capable of for this season and next. He is a .255 career hitter who averages 31 home runs a season, although he has only exceeded that number once, with the Rockies, since leaving Milwaukee in 2001. At age 36, it is reasonable that his power would start to drop a bit as his bat slows. Burnitz is also just a .174 lifetime hitter in 92 at-bats in PNC Park with three homers, so it is highly unlikely he will get to 30 again.

Expect something around 25 home runs this season, which, if you are interested in Burnitz, is largely the only category he is really helpful in. At this stage of his career, he’s more likely to hit .230 than .280, and he is not likely to steal more than five or six bases. The large gaps in PNC Park is more likely a disservice to Burnitz, who is the prototypical uppercut swinger, leading to a lot of high fly balls that leave plenty of time to be caught. For all the downside to Burnitz, he is a player that will play everyday as his salary is far too large for a team like the Pirates to justify platooning him with Craig Wilson, although Burnitz shows significantly less power against lefties so keep that in mind.

In the real baseball world, Burnitz did the Pirates a service by rejecting Baltimore for Pittsburgh. He’ll be a significant offensive upgrade for a Pirates team that has been power starved for year, and his veteran leadership should play well on a very young club. However, he did fantasy players far less of a service. Burnitz is a .385 lifetime hitter in Camden Yards with nearly as many home runs (2) and RBI (6) as he has had in PNC Park, despite 66 fewer at-bats there. He would have been surrounded by a much more potent lineup in Baltimore, and would have been benefited substantially in the RBI category with Brian Roberts leading off rather than Nathan McLouth. Whatever Burnitz’s reasons for spurning the Orioles for the Pirates, enhancing his attractiveness to fantasy baseball players was certainly not one of them.

 

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Scott Ehrlich

Scott Ehrlich has been involved with sports for the last four years. He spent parts of three seasons working with various minor league baseball teams and internet sports sites. In 2004 he hosted his own sports talk show on 790AM in South Florida, featuring guests from all four major sports. Scott currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, FL but will be attending law school at the University of Florida in August, where he hopes to one day be the guy responsible for holding your favorite player out of training camp.

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