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Strategy: How to Win a Playoff League

January 5, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

In the Week 15 strategy report we discussed how to setup a fantasy playoff league. It's one way to keep the fantasy season alive just a few weeks longer. Let's face it - there are always owners who will still be "Jonesing" for their fantasy fix, especially those who missed the playoffs in their own league.

A fantasy playoff league is very similar to the regular season, just crunched into a shorter time period. There is the draft consideration as usual, but the biggest difference is projecting which teams will have the most life in the NFL's second season. Since a player is done when his team loses a playoff game, you lose a team member. Having said that, let's look at some strategy considerations that affect your playoff league.

LEAGUE SCORING

This caveat comes into play for any league, but bears repeating: Know how your points are compiled. There are so many different variations lately, and it's easy to get tripped up. In the scoring format KFFL proposed, the scoring system is pretty common. The one significant change that directly changes your draft strategy is quarterback scoring. In our format, each completion is worth one point. That means your quarterbacks will score approximately 1.5 times more points than other position players.

WEATHER/DOMES

This plays a role every year. Certain teams have hostile environments simply due to weather. For evidence, take a look back at Week 15 and Atlanta Falcons QB Michael Vick. Playing against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, he couldn't find enough layers to keep warm on the sidelines and played like he wanted to be somewhere else... anywhere else.

This year we have the Bears, New York Giants, Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals and New England Patriots hosting games. Recently, each one of these stadiums has given visiting teams rain, snow or cold - in some games, all three. Quarterbacks are less efficient when the ball is cold, receivers tend to drop more catches when the ball is wet and running backs slip in the snow. Be aware of this fact when creating your draft board.

Usually, the number of dome teams is also a consideration, since they have a tougher row to hoe when they head outside into the elements. However, this year is proving a little different. The Indianapolis Colts enjoy "dome field" advantage throughout, and should they advance to the big game, it will be played indoors as well. Thus, they are not at the mercy of the elements. That is an enormous benefit for a team of the Colts' caliber and adds value to skill players on the team.

WILD CARD and BYE TEAMS

Tempting, isn't it, to take a player who could enjoy all four playoff games, including the Super Bowl? Say Carolina Panthers WR Steve Smith? It's a nice thought, but be careful.

This year's wild card teams are the Carolina Panthers, Washington Redskins, Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers. The four teams receiving a bye during Wild Card Weekend are the Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks. It's time to begin thinking that your players will have three games to produce, but more likely, just two outings. Rarely does a wild card team advance all the way to the Super Bowl. Carolina did it in the 2003 season, but only seven teams have pulled off such a feat since 1978 when they instituted the wild card format.

This is where the hard questions come in. Let's think about it using the example above. Smith is a scoring machine, no doubt; he has been most of the year. Do you think he can do that in New York in January? Will Carolina be able to knock off the Giants in their home stadium? If you answered "No" to either question Smith should be dropping on your draft board. For the sake of argument, let's say you answered "Yes" instead.

Now, do you think Smith can take his show on the road to Seattle or Chicago and give you healthy production? One of those two places will be his destination, should Carolina advance. Maybe he could in Seattle, maybe not in Chicago. The odds are dwindling. If Carolina gets bounced in New York, you have just lost one of your receivers and top picks for the next three weeks. One strategy here would be to target a lesser receiver on a bye team. At least you know which game he will miss and can draft around that event. Leave the wild card players for a later round and expect just a single game out of them. Better yet, maybe another owner will burn his first receiver pick on someone you believe will only last one game.

Perhaps the applicable caveat here is: "Hope for the best, plan for the worst."

Miscellaneous Tips and Thoughts

If you adopt our proposed scoring format, remember that this makes your quarterbacks more valuable than other positions. This is a significant change from most common scoring formats where running backs rule.

Spread your picks out between both conferences. If you already have two NFC players on your team, start looking to the AFC. It will increase your chances of still having players come the Super Bowl.

Set your brackets all the way through to the Super Bowl. Laying out who you think should win each game is the first step in creating your draft board.

Limit the number of players from one team. While it may be tempting to load up on Colts or Seahawks, avoid this temptation. Use three as your cutoff. You never know what can happen in the post-season, and every year that adage is proven true once again. In addition, try to pick up at least one player from each team. It's not unheard of for two owners to have just one player left when the Super Bowl arrives.

Due to the makeup of post-season teams this year, the usual advice concerning indoor kickers must be altered. Only Colts PK Mike Vanderjagt will be kicking indoors with any certainty. You will have to predict what other teams will pass through the RCA Dome in order to properly order the kicker position.

Conclusion

Take heart, fantasy addicts. Week 17 did not signal the end of your game: you just have to change your approach. Grab some of your buddies, hold a quick draft and enjoy another month of fantasy. With the tips provided in this report, you should have a leg up. Best of luck!