I'm not keen on Ubaldo Jimenez now that he's signed with the Baltimore Orioles. (I can't say that I was prior to the development.) I had some general ideas why. (Obviously, one of them is Camden Yards' set of park factors.) Then I read Jeff Sullivan's commentary on FanGraphs, and I gained some clarity. (The piece that Eno Sarris posted after the news just reinforced some fears.)
BAD splash, in a good way?
It's not as if Jimenez is going to come off the board before the final third of a draft or cost more than a handful of dollars in an auction of a mixed league. Or require bids well into double digits in an AL-only league. But I doubt that I'll be interested unless he comes in well below my expectation of the market for him, even then.
I can't forecast a K/9 above 9.0 again. The BB/9 will still hover around 4.0. And in the AL East, Jimenez won't get the kind of breaks in the schedule that he could have in the AL Central, such as the stretch in his final month-plus with the Cleveland Indians last year that Sullivan recounts.
Jimenez smells like a WHIP killer and a possible ERA drag, no matter how good the strikeout total is. There are too many good pitchers these days to invest much in him.
The Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft (BAD -- we should really think about popping that F in front) kicked off on Monday morning. It's a mixed league, for those who don't know. We expanded to 15 teams this year, and Tim and I are really excited about that.
Anyway, I'm sure you want to know: Miguel Cabrera went first, Mike Trout second. Definitely some interesting picks after that, though. Check out the players' thoughts on Round 1 (don't forget Page 2). Tell me there aren't some unexpected choices. Not one but two second basemen in the first round!
Round 2, Round 3, Round 4 and Round 5 are up, too. Navigate to the BAD home page on KFFL to find out more about the players and their organizations as well as the league setup. Comment with the hash tag #BADfantasy on Twitter (tell @KFFL_Baseball, if no one else) and someone will find it ... and, probably, have something to say back. Especially if it's nice. Or not nice.
About Nicholas Minnix
Minnix is baseball editor and a fantasy football analyst at KFFL. He plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.
The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570.
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