Chris Davis probably won't be on my fantasy baseball teams

      January 7, 2014 @ 18:50:26 PDT

He'll almost certainly go in the first round. If he does, it won't be me who owns the Baltimore Orioles' first baseman.

Baltimore Orioles 1B Chris Davis
Davis has plenty of room to fall

Judging from an array of his indicators after the All-Star break, pitchers seemed to figure out something about him. Check his post-break rise in his infield fly rate, his normalized 21.3 HR/FB and his .245 average (.309 BABIP, about 25 points below his career norm). There's a distinct likelihood that Chris Davis was just on a once-in-a-career tear in the season's first three and a half months.

Davis has incredible power, but he's a flawed hitter. He was more selective this past season, as RotoGraphs writer Brett Talley points out, so he's clearly evolving. But I've seen enough of these outlandish career years followed by something much closer to peak-years-mean-sans-outlier-campaign. Davis' profile has never screamed "complete hitter," so it's unlikely that we're looking at more than one terrific money-earning season.

Disclosure: I haven't determined how much of the natural contrarian in me is fueling my desire to pan Davis. But it's a third of the reason, max. I think.

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About Nicholas Minnix

Minnix is baseball editor and a fantasy football analyst at KFFL. He plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570.

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