Fantasy Football On Target: What you should know after Week 11

by Tim Heaney on November 19, 2013 @ 11:40:46 PDT

 

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For a complete listing of targets and touches, check out our Statistics Analyzer and Utilizations pages.

Write-ups labeled with WW are waiver wire targets. Find more fantasy football risers in our Fantasy Football Waiver Wire.

KFFL Target Data

Bull's eye

Making it Rainey

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have no choice but to lean toward upside at this point. They've found their best substitute for Doug Martin (shoulder) in Bobby Rainey, who led all running backs in Week 11 work during his three-touchdown showing. Listed at 5-foot-8 (lulz), the second-year carrier brandishes more power than most people realize and makes a point about hiding in plain sight behind his blockers.

When this space endorsed Brian Leonard last week, it was chiefly based upon a combination of the mismanagement skills of Greg Schiano and the fact that Leonard was, by experience, next man up. But he's more of a passing-down specialist, and Rainey undoubtedly has more promise to deliver each week. Also, it's hard not to get behind someone averaging 5.5 yards per tote with his current squad.

Baltimore Ravens RB Ray Rice
Steal this Buc

Given, Tampa Bay has faced two of the most vulnerable run defenses of late in its last two games, yet Rainey looks like a weekly flex option moving forward, with Leonard scraping the barrel of playability.

Will Rice remain a treat?

Meanwhile, Ray Rice broke through, finally, against a weakened Chicago Bears defensive front. The hip injury that has bugged him all year may very well be clearing up, as he showed some punch on a 47-yard run early in Sunday's game.

Of course, he only averaged 3.5 yards per haul on his other 24 hand-offs. Although he had a few other moderately big runs, that, the favorable matchup shields the continuing problems along the Baltimore Ravens' offensive line. The fantasy allure of his remaining schedule? Mixed. Bernard Pierce, despite his own struggles, looms for a momentum play if John Harbaugh decides to change the hot hand. If you're a championship team that has been waiting on Rice, you should be less likely to trade him, if you still can. His turnaround would be more valuable than anything you'd probably net in a deal. In PPRs, Rice can still give you RB2 value.

Running backs

Week 11 utilizations
Rk
Player
Tm
Wk11
Notes
1
Bobby Rainey
TB
32
WW: See our Bull's eye.
2
Ray Rice
BAL
30
See our Bully's eye, Part II.
3
Knowshon Moreno
DEN
28
Montee Ball had 12 utils, 2 TDs. He'll continue to encroach.
4
Ben Tate
HOU
25
117 offensive yards highest total of season. Has min. 20 utils each of last 3 weeks.
5
Rashad Jennings
OAK
25
May overtake Darren McFadden (hamstring) as starter when DMC comes back.
6
Jamaal Charles
KC
24
DEN defended screen game effectively.
7
Matt Forte
CHI
24
That's more like it.
8
LeSean McCoy
PHI
24
Ran for TD for first time since Week 5.
9
Adrian Peterson
MIN
24
Groin injury will be examined. Watch for Toby Gerhart, even if AD plays.
10
Le'Veon Bell
PIT
23
Has averaged 2.59 or fewer yds per carry in 3 of last 4 G. Thankful for PPR leagues
11
Andre Brown
NYG
23
56 utils last 2 wks lead RBs.
  • Stevan Ridley (13 utilizations), Shane Vereen (12) and LeGarrette Blount (10) will form a frustrating trio for fantasy owners. Bill Belichick went away from Ridley after a fumble, but he went back in and eventually found paydirt. Vereen is the most stable PPR play, despite BB's confidence in Ridley.
  • Speaking of putting the ball on the dirt, apparently Reggie Bush's two Week 11 mistakes (one was lost) weren't the only reasons the Detroit Lions went away from him. Jim Schwartz said the muddy conditions in Pittsburgh probably hindered Bush's grip and ability to move. The sloppy conditions were better designed for a Joique Bell contest. Luckily, four of Detroit's final five games in the fantasy season come inside their dome home, so if Bush can protect the pigskin, it'll work out.
  • WW: Reports of Chris Ogbonnaya's increased involvement held up. Go get him. The Cleveland Browns like what he offers in the passing game. Willis McGahee is gassed.
  • Despite a hot start to Thursday Night Football, Chris Johnson only had four carries for six yards in the second half. The Tennessee Titans would eventually lose. Maybe Shonn Greene isn't the end-all, be-all of clock control. Johnson's remaining schedule commands continued optimism, though.
  • Rashard Mendenhall gained 14 yards on 13 carries. One of them happened to be a touchdown. Andre Ellington will continue backing him up and, despite his lackluster game, should be the Arizona Cardinals back fantasy owners trust.
  • Darren Sproles (foot, knee) was limited in Week 11 and eventually left the game. The New Orleans Saints, considering their cache of weapons, adjusted. Fantasy owners may have to do the same on this short turnaround for Thursday night.
  • As if it weren't clear before the bye, Chris Ivory is the New York Jets' new lead back.
  • WW: Donald Brown isn't necessarily that for the Indianapolis Colts, but he's proven more effective than Trent Richardson, who'll continue relying on volume and disappointing his owners.

Wide receivers

Week 11 utilizations
Rk
Player
Tm
Wk11
Notes
1
Andre Johnson
HOU
17
He's happy Case Keenum will start. We all are.
2
Josh Gordon
CLE
15
Substitute Keenum for Jason Campbell here.
3
Dwayne Bowe
KC
14
No ill will after arrest. 26 looks last 2 G
4
Alshon Jeffery
CHI
14
Last 3 G: 44 tar for Jeffery. Brandon Marshall? 35.
5
Calvin Johnson
DET
13
Megatron keeps transforming.
6
Brian Hartline
MIA
13
Mike Wallace's ineptitude keeps Hartline atop the pecking order.
7
Demaryius Thomas
DEN
13
Has become the target mainstay.
8
Kendall Wright
TEN
12
21 in 2 G w/Ryan Fitzpatrick playing at least majority
9
Vincent Jackson
TB
12
Josh who?
10
Michael Floyd
ARI
11
WW: Talent legit, but can Carson Palmer get that protection the rest of the season?
11
Antonio Brown
PIT
11
Hasn't had G with fewer than 8 tar all year
12
Victor Cruz
NYG
11
Caught 8 for 1st 100-yard G since Week 4. Eli Manning finding groove?
13
Pierre Garcon
WAS
11
10-plus in 5 of last 6 weeks

Tight ends

Week 11 utilizations
Rk
Player
Tm
Wk11
Notes
1
Garrett Graham
HOU
13
Taking full advantage of Owen Daniels' (leg) absence. Probably another 2 weeks until he returns.
2
Heath Miller
PIT
13
Magnet for double teams saw some space this week. Probably still getting drive back after knee rehab.
3
Jimmy Graham
NO
11
Even in limited snaps, the best the position offers.
4
Coby Fleener
IND
10
Andrew Luck's No. 2 target.
5
Delanie Walker
TEN
10
WW: Fitzpatrick's No. 2 target.
6
Rob Housler
ARI
9
WW: 14 in last 2 wks. Role stabilizing?
7
Greg Olsen
CAR
9
Grabbed 40 of 60 this year, similar to last year
8
Tony Gonzalez
ATL
8
Focus of defensive coverage. Matt Ryan doing him few favors. Salvaged in PPR.
9
Charles Clay
MIA
7
72.4% catch rate tops among TEs with at least 50 tar.
10
Marcedes Lewis
JAX
7
13 in last 2 weeks but only 6 catches.
11
John Carlson
MIN
7
Since Kyle Rudolph's foot injury, he's caught 12 of 14 tries.
12
Jordan Cameron
CLE
7
Catch % of 70.9 on the year
13
Rob Gronkowski
NE
7
Despite controversial final play, back in fantasy dominance
  • Welker missing time would also benefit Julius Thomas if he weren't nursing a knee strain. He's day-to-day. Joel Dreessen would step in if Thomas can't go but isn't worth fantasy attention in the majority of setups.
  • Ladarius Green's big-play ability is stealing some thunder from the San Diego Chargers' Antonio Gates, despite Gates' heavy target advantage in the last two weeks at 14 to 6. This may start capping Gates' ability to post TE1 numbers, especially since the Bolts' lagging passing game may force their hand to use Green more often. It's not worth moving on Green in most games yet, but he could be a late-season dice roll in deeps.
  • McGloin also included Mychal Rivera in the Raiders' passing game. McGloin isn't meek when it comes to downfield strength, but his into-the-fire situation could mean he favors Rivera for now, pushing him into TE2 utility.
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About Tim Heaney

Tim's work has been featured by USA Today/Sports Weekly, among numerous outlets, and recognized as a finalist in the Fantasy Sports Writers Association awards. The Boston University alum, who competes in LABR and Tout Wars, has won numerous industry leagues in both baseball and football.

During baseball and football season, he appears on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio on Thursdays and Sundays, and every Wednesday on 1570 AM WNST in Baltimore.

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