Fantasy Baseball Round Table: Types of rookies you want

by Todd Zola, MastersBall.com on August 14, 2013 @ 15:00:00 PDT

 

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Here's the data for starting pitching:

2012
IP
W
K
ERA
WHIP
April
114
7
101
3.97
1.27
May
101
6
70
4.40
1.38
June
68
3
48
4.16
1.38
July
41
2
45
2.53
1.17
August
30
1
24
5.44
1.46
September
13
0
13
4.26
1.29
2011
IP
W
K
ERA
WHIP
April
110
6
79
4.50
1.37
May
71
3
56
4.69
1.43
June
49
1
33
3.83
1.38
July
47
2
22
4.90
1.42
August
41
2
25
4.98
1.50
September
19
1
13
4.40
1.43
2010
IP
W
K
ERA
WHIP
April
112
7
80
4.52
1.43
May
45
2
32
4.50
1.51
June
78
5
53
4.27
1.34
July
64
4
45
4.20
1.35
August
41
3
35
4.91
1.45
September
21
1
14
3.83
1.32

Keeping in mind that again each decision is unto itself, the global data is not as optimistic for rookie pitching. The majority of these ratios will be detrimental to your squad. Not to mention, rookies don't throw many innings, so if you need to use FAAB to get the rookie pitcher, you're likely going to need to use more to replace the pitcher later in the season.

The purpose of this little exercise was not to derive some game-theory strategy to revolutionize fantasy baseball, but rather to give a quick peek into the utility of rookies. At least based on this cursory treatment, I'll really look at emerging hitters but likely shy away from emerging pitchers.

I know what you're thinking.

Jose Fernandez.

There will always be exceptions.

That's why looking at players individually, as the Knights concluded last week, is the best practice.

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About Todd Zola, MastersBall.com

Focusing primarily on the science of player valuation and game theory starting in 1997, Todd Zola and Mastersball carved out an important niche in the fantasy industry. In 2006, Todd became the Research Director for fantasybaseball.com, and in 2009, he relaunched Mastersball and is now a managing partner.

Todd competes in Tout Wars and the XFL, and has been a multiple-time league champion in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. He has been a contributor to the fantasy content at MLB.com and SI.com, is a frequent guest on Sirius/XM and Blog Talk Radio and is an annual speaker at the spring and fall First Pitch Forum symposiums.

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