Fantasy football analysis draft: Round 4

by KFFL Staff on August 2, 2013 @ 13:16:08 PDT


Pages 1 | 2 | all's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft (FAD) brings you behind the scenes for all 16 rounds of an actual fantasy football league draft. Each of our experts participating give you their analysis on why they made each selection. This is not a mock fantasy football draft; this league will be played out during the course of the 2013 fantasy football season ... each participant is drafting to win!

A standard scoring system with one point per reception (RB-WR-TE) was used for this draft.

1) Wes Welker, WR, Denver Broncos
Team: Ryan Dodson | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: I was trying to decide between V-Jax and Welker for this pick, and Pio made it for me by taking Jackson. I'm cool with Welker in this format. There are plenty of questions whether there are enough targets to go around, but Manning has always liked throwing to slot receivers. And Welker will probably be doing a lot of what he did in New England. I look for 90-100 catches, 1,100 yards and 6 or 7 scores.

2) DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Team: Tim Piotrowski | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: I was trying to decide whether to take Murray or Darren McFadden for my No. 2 running back and decided to go with Murray because the Cowboys have the better offense in my opinion. Even though he has dealt with leg injuries in the past, I am hoping Murray will be able to post around 900 to 1,000 rushing yards, seven to nine touchdowns and around 30-40 receptions.

3) Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: Tim Heaney | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: The rook has a clear shot at workhorse duty and already has the pedigree to be on the field for all downs. Pittsburgh wants to get back to a pounding gameplan, and a healthy O-line should help them achieve the goal. Bell getting 1,300 total yards with 10 scores would bolster my flex spot. I'm comfortable with three RBs this early the way this draft has gone.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

4) Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
Team: Dan Dobish | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: I thought about taking Cam Newton here ... as living in the RDU area, I get to watch all of the Panthers games on local tube. But the smartest pick here is Nicks. Sure, he's coming back from injuries, and always seems to be on the sidelines with something, but when he is on, he can be fantasy gold. Pairing him with Victor Cruz will force me to prick up my ears when I see a FOX Sports scoring update from the Meadowlands.

5) Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints
Team: Eric McClung | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: Outside of Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham, I'm willing to wait to get a pair of arms this season. I'm also not going to overreact to runs on wide receiver. Here in Round 4 I'm stuck with Colston. All he's done is average nearly 1,100 yards and more than eight touchdowns over the last four seasons. Colston is another 30-year-old dude going too late in drafts.

6) Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Jack Douglas | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: One of the problems of a 12-team league is that the talent thins rapidly, but I think Bowe is going to shine in Andy Reid's offense with Alex Smith throwing to him. He's the best they have, and Reid prefers to throw, so I look for 1,100 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. I prefer him to Hakeem Nicks, because Bowe is more durable, so this is as nice consolation grab.

7) Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Team: Brian Polking | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: After slumping a bit early in his sophomore season, Newton returned to form over the final few weeks. More importantly, he still finished as the fourth-highest scorer at the QB position in a year when he supposedly took a step back. In his first two seasons, Newton has basically averaged 4,000 yards and 20 scores through the air to go along with 700 yards on the ground and 11 scores, and I'm not convinced he has reached his full potential by any means.

Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys

8) Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Team: Nicholas Minnix | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: Reggie Wayne, Eric Decker ... a few others would be good picks here, too, I'm sure. Kind of splitting hairs, for some, considering the offenses for which they play. A line with something like 75-plus receptions, 1,250-plus yards and 10-plus TDs seems about right for a healthy Nelson, especially now that Greg Jennings plays for a rival.

9) Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys
Team: Jared Byrd | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: Witten has never been a touchdown machine, but his consistency in one of the NFL's most pass-happy offenses makes him one of the most valuable players in PPR leagues. I don't expect him to catch 110 passes again, but there is no indication that Witten's role will decrease significantly, even though the Cowboys drafted Gavin Escobar. He should be good for 90 catches and 900 to 1,000 receiving yards.

10) Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins
Team: Ryan R. Bonini | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: Miller, despite not quite having a stranglehold on the starting job just yet, is poised to be one of this year's breakout players. In a retooled Miami offense, featuring some big-play receivers and little competition at running back, there should be plenty of open holes for Miller to slash through. He can run inside and outside, should be a three-down back and catch plenty of passes. I'm expecting 1,200 yards rushing, 500 yards receiving and close to 10 total touchdowns.

11) Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
Team: Cory J. Bonini | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: A last-minute gear change has me pointed in a different direction than I had expected to go. DMC likely will miss a few games, but he should be dynamite when healthy with the return to a power-blocking scheme in Oakland. I think this offense will have some competency with Matt Flynn under center. I'm hoping for around 1,200 rushing yards, 400 receiving and 10 total scores. Seeing him live up to his potential and start 16 games is asking for too much.

12) Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Team: Keith Hernandez | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: I briefly considered Eric Decker, but the fact that he's competing for targets with Wes Welker in addition to Demaryius Thomas scared me away. At 34 years old, Wayne still plays at a high level and is the unquestioned No. 1 wideout on his squad. He was targeted almost 200 times last year by Andrew Luck. If he can stay healthy for another full season, there's no reason why he shouldn't top 1,000 yards with around 90 grabs.

How do you feel about each selection? Would you have made the same move? We want to hear your thoughts in the comments area below.

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