Fantasy Baseball Round Table: Reactions to trade deadline moves

by Todd Zola, MastersBall.com on August 1, 2013 @ 13:40:00 PDT

 

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What player(s) not directly involved in a deal was (were) hurt the most?

PVH: Either Jarrod Dyson or David Lough in KC if the Royals are going to play Maxwell every day.

LM: I think Justin Morneau might have been able to stretch and help a contending team, and he no longer gets to showcase his stuff in any kind of limelight.

NM: Also hard to say. I'd guess that Boston's acquisition of Peavy is more a reflection of their concern about Clay Buchholz's health than their confidence in Felix Doubront to continue to pitch so well. That's all TBD, though. Anywhere a new starting pitcher has gone, that's where those most hurt are, probably. No big bats moved. I guess the Oakland Athletics didn't have much faith in Eric Sogard.

Philadelphia Phillies 3B Michael Young
Phils may not move Young after all

RL: Possibly Felix Doubront if Clay Buchholz can find his way back to health. Jason Hammel similarly will have no rotation spot to come back to when activated from the disabled list. Vernon Wells will become a full-time bench player when Curtis Granderson comes off the DL for the Yankees.

TZ: Those who picked up Brandon Workman for his two-start week may have a different Boston pitcher in mind, but at least he's sticking around and moving to the bullpen. I'm with Perry, I was looking forward to seeing what Lough could do the last couple of months.

You know we're not done, there will be a waiver move or two. Who do you feel is most likely to be moved in August?

PVH: Adam Dunn (to Texas).

LM: Alex Rios or Morneau. It has to be great to be hot on the heels of Kelly Shoppach and Carlos Pena, though.

NM: Just don't see why the Philadelphia Phillies shouldn't move Michael Young for whatever they can get. Ruben Amaro Jr. isn't exactly a genius, though. Trying to remember who else ... someone from the Seattle Mariners, too, they hold the cards with the bats, it seems. Mike Morse may just need to prove that he's healthy. Pending suspensions and the standings will help to determine who feels more pressed to make a deal in August.

RL: A reliever or three of modest quality. Maybe Michael Young, Justin Morneau, Mike Pelfrey. In other words, middling free-agents who will be targets of excessive, saved up trade deadline intended FAAB.

TZ: My colleagues have this covered pretty well. However, I do think it will be interesting to see how many claims are made by those on the fringe of the playoffs, if for no other reason than to keep top teams from getting stronger. I realize they may be stuck with the salary, but in some cases it could be worth it. The original team may then opt to pull the player back. For instance, there is no way Michael Young makes it all the way to the Red Sox.

With the slow deadline, will you adjust how you approach FAAB next season AL- and NL-only leagues?

PVH: My FAAB spending in AL- and NL-only leagues is defined by team needs/injuries rather than by trying to guess what might be available in a crossover trade -- people who "saved" their FAAB this year suddenly don't have much to buy. (Sneaky play in NL-only leagues depending on retention rules will be to buy Mike Olt when he comes up later in the year.)

LM: No, not yet.

NM: Not really. I don't consider what happened one year an indicator of what will happen the next, unless it's related to the way teams value players on the trade market. Every year is different. The players rumored to be available this year just aren't quite as exciting as those in previous years. The freedom to trade compensatory picks, money allotted to international signings and things like that would seem likelier to help than to hurt the prospects of trade frequency. It can't hurt to pursue the players who move earliest, though, since they have the most time to help you -- just one more factor to consider when you bid. But, I wasn't broken-hearted that I didn't get Scott Feldman in AL LABR, for instance.

RL: No. I do not limit my spending based on the time of the year. I focus more on, if talent becomes available, go get it. This is especially the case in leagues where you can acquire FAAB via trades and especially keeper leagues that do this. You can always add additional FAAB via trades later as a throw-in or sweetener.

TZ: I'm going to come right out and say it -- yes, I am going to alter my approach to FAAB spending ... sort of. Here's the deal. I respect and believe in the politically correct answers supplied by my colleagues. Perry and Rob are right -- you react to the situation at the time. Lawr and Nick are right -- you don't have a knee-jerk reaction to one season. But sometimes you need to stay ahead of the curve. It doesn't always work out, but there's only one way to find out if what you sense is true and that is to jump in the deep end. My sense is the later Super Two deadline is keeping prospects in the minors just a little longer and they are just a little bit better when they are promoted. Of course if I have an April injury I will address, but I am going to make a conscious effort to take advantage of the early June call-ups since I don't believe this is a one-year phenomena.

Hmm, that sounds like an interesting topic for a Round Table.

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About Todd Zola, MastersBall.com

Focusing primarily on the science of player valuation and game theory starting in 1997, Todd Zola and Mastersball carved out an important niche in the fantasy industry. In 2006, Todd became the Research Director for fantasybaseball.com, and in 2009, he relaunched Mastersball and is now a managing partner.

Todd competes in Tout Wars and the XFL, and has been a multiple-time league champion in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. He has been a contributor to the fantasy content at MLB.com and SI.com, is a frequent guest on Sirius/XM and Blog Talk Radio and is an annual speaker at the spring and fall First Pitch Forum symposiums.

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