I have five players in mind that are grossly overvalued by fantasy owners, and you will regret drafting them. Everyone has a point in which they are worth drafting, but it almost never happens with some players.
QB Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
The loss of his top target in Michael Crabtree (Achilles') will set him back much more than people expect. This offense still runs through the ground game and a strong defense. Jim Harbaugh will rely on a strong power-running attack to keep defenses honest. Kaepernick's legs can do only so much ... he's a questionable No. 1 fantasy passer in my eyes.
RB Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Martin was awesome last year. I get that. However, he was really special in four of his 16 starts, which resulted in 45.3 percent of his overall rushing production. I prefer more consistency from my first-round pick. Martin averaged 66.3 yards in 12 games and 164.8 in the rest. Furthermore, 142 of those yards came in a meaningless Week 17 game against a 13-2 Atlanta Falcons club. Martin rushed for fewer than 4.0 yards per carry in seven games and went nine games without scoring (12 total TDs).
RB Montee Ball, Denver Broncos
It is not a foregone conclusion that Ball has the starting job on lockdown. It seems likely that he will lead the Broncos in carries over the course of the season, although he will have to contend with Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno for touches. Ball is most safely drafted as a third back, which won't happen in most leagues, as owners are overzealously drafting him inside the top 20. He won't see the field on third downs if he cannot protect Peyton Manning. This isn't your older brother's Denver running game.
WR Percy Harvin, Seattle Seahawks
Harvin is extremely talented, and he knows Darrell Bevell's offense. I respect those two areas of his outlook, yet I still cannot endorse him as anything more than a low-end No. 2 in PPR leagues. I've seen him go in the second round ... too rich for my blood. I'd rather get 16 games out of a cheaper option than deal with questioning if Harvin will suit up. He is too tough to rely on for the cost of owning him.
WR Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers
I like Brown a good deal, but he's a glorified possession receiver, at best. The Steelers have no proven weapon to take the lid off the D, so I see defenders swarming like mosquitoes. Brown will catch a lot of balls that end up going nowhere of substance. While PPR owners should look to him as a third receiver, it is unlikely he will get out of the fourth or fifth round.
TE Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
I would have put Aaron Hernandez here even before his off-the-field problems, but Gronk is more fitting of this placement. He is an injury waiting to happen and is in jeopardy of missing Week 1. It wouldn't shock me if Gronkowski missed the first six games of the season with his current back injury. The Patriots need to rely on him, and I don't know that Gronk can live up to his end of the bargain to the price of being a third-round pick. There are too many sound options at the position to risk a high pick on an already injured stud.