Fantasy Baseball Tumbling Dice: First Things First

by Lawr Michaels, on July 2, 2013 @ 12:05:00 PDT


Of course the beauty of hindsight is that it usually invokes our genius. For with hindsight, we can see so clearly what we should have done, as opposed to what we actually did do.

Case in point: Just about every fantasy baseball player on earth.

Issue: Who did you draft at first base, and when?

Well, I don't know about you, but as I have written before, I staked a lot of my National and Mixed League hunches on the wrong Davis, that being Ike instead of Chris.

In particular, I took Ike in the NFBC Draft Champions League, and I am not alone in that preference.

New York Mets 1B Ike Davis
Ike Davis looked like good pick, no?

For, if we look, Ike Davis was on average the 14th first baseman drafted in 2013 NFBC contests, being selected as the 107.45 pick, while Davis the Chris was the 16th first sacker taken, at an average spot of 124.87, more than a full round later.

In fact, among the first sackers taken prior to the Davis boys, we find Adrian Gonzalez (4th), Freddie Freeman (8th), Anthony Rizzo (9th), and Eric Hosmer (11th).

However, unless the owners who targeted those picks as a first sacker, and then grabbed Davis (as in Chris) down the road as a corner infielder, they are feeling the same pain as I.

This is likely unlike the Davis owners, for in my Draft Champions League #2202, the Damn Dirty Apes, who do own Chris Davis, have a 12.5 point lead over the second place Bilderberg Group.

That is compared to the 82 points my team Lawr and Order currently has, but if we break it down to hitting points (I have a miserable 11, to 71 pitching), and simply add 12 points in for the difference 26 homers would make to my totals (I addend 26 homers, runs, and RBI) the change in the standings is huge.

That one simple shift takes that minimum of 12 points from the Damn Dirty Apes, dropping them to striking distance (at 100.5), and would put me at 94, squeezing six teams within six points of first place in the league.

Now, I don't mean any sour grapes out of this, for the Apes did a better job than I for sure (they also selected Jean Segura, and Jason Kipnis, and have as many offensive points as I do pitching) but, I do mention it because we place so much emphasis on ADP, and who we draft first.

Furthermore, we regularly focus on making sure the first three rounds net a killer troika, but the Apes took Josh Hamilton, Justin Upton, and Aramis Ramirez as their first three players (I took Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ben Zobrist in contrast).

But, what this clearly shows is while you don't want to throw away those first three picks, where you win is generally in those middle rounds, for the Apes took Kipnis in the fourth round, Davis in the eighth, and Segura in the 16th.

But, to show just how iffy even that can be, the selection of Segura triggered a short run on shortstops, with Jurickson Profar, Everth Cabrera, and Andrelton Simmons all selected after the young Brewer. For no one would have argued the selection of any of these guys in the 16th round at the time.

But, with that wonderful hindsight we can clearly see that Segura was the only one of the quartet really worth drafting at all as a starter.

However, that is not the lesson: the lesson is that in those later rounds we do indeed make or break our drafts.

You can get the Mastersball Top 250 Prospects as part of our Platinum package, with more information at 2013 Mastersball Platinum Package. Mastersball Platinum is the edge that supported four of the top five finishers in the NFBC in 2012. You can get the same insights and analysis that helped Dave Potts with the $100,000 grand prize last year by subscribing to Mastersball at 2013 Mastersball Platinum Package.

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About Lawr Michaels,

Lawr Michaels has been a player in the fantasy baseball industry since he began writing for John Benson in 1993. He has written for STATS, Inc, was the first fantasy columnist for CBS Sportsline, and has appeared in numerous journals and on websites. In 1996, he founded CREATiVESPORTS, a staple for serious fantasy players, which he merged into Mastersball in 2010.

Over the years, Lawr has participated in a wide variety of playing formats and won numerous titles, including AL Tout Wars crowns in 2001 and 2009. Along with his Mastersball duties, Lawr works for as a statistician. Fantasy Baseball

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