Fantasy Baseball Articles of Configuration: ADP does not equal MVP

by MastersBall.com on June 17, 2013 @ 11:16:15 PDT

 

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By Brian Walton

Baltimore Orioles 1B Chris Davis
Crushing preconceived notions

As part of another project I am working on, I reviewed the current odds for the Most Valuable Player Awards as seen by the oddsmakers at bovada.lv.

In seeing some names historically connected to excellence such as Albert Pujols, still listed despite having rough seasons, I thought it would be interesting to put alongside the average draft position of the MVP odds leaders. I used the March 28 ADP results from Mock Draft Central for mixed leagues.

2013 AL MVP
June Odds
March ADP
Miguel Cabrera (DET)
1/1
2
Chris Davis (BAL)
3/1
89
Mike Trout (LAA)
7/1
3
Clay Buchholz (BOS)
10/1
275
Robinson Cano (NYY)
10/1
7
Adam Jones (BAL)
15/1
21
Prince Fielder (DET)
25/1
14
Evan Longoria (TB)
25/1
32
Joe Mauer (MIN)
25/1
52
Mike Napoli (BOS)
25/1
64
Adrian Beltre (TEX)
33/1
16
Yu Darvish (TEX)
33/1
55
Albert Pujols (LAA)
33/1
6

Certainly, we already knew that Davis and Buchholz are exceeding most everyone's expectations in the American League this season. Red Sox fans and Buchholz owners are holding their collective breath that the pitcher's neck injury subsides quickly.

2013 NL MVP
June Odds
March ADP
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)
5/1
20
Carlos Gonzalez (COL)
6/1
9
Troy Tulowitzki (COL)
6/1
18
Joey Votto (CIN)
7/1
11
Bryce Harper (WSH)
10/1
15
Jean Segura (MIL)
10/1
269
Justin Upton (ATL)
10/1
10
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD)
12/1
29
Andrew McCutchen (PIT)
12/1
5
Buster Posey (SF)
14/1
12
Ryan Braun (MIL)
15/1
1
Domonic Brown (PHI)
18/1
220
Carlos Gomez (MIL)
18/1
183
Yadier Molina (STL)
18/1
39
Carlos Beltran (STL)
25/1
107
Dexter Fowler (COL)
25/1
225
Carl Crawford (LAD)
33/1
181
Starling Marte (PIT)
33/1
179
Pablo Sandoval (SF)
33/1
132
Shin-Soo Choo (CIN)
33/1
81
David Wright (NYM)
33/1
26

Over in the Senior Circuit, the injury bug has become a pervasive problem. At least five of the named MVP candidates have recently encountered physical problems serious enough to be placed on the disabled list. They include Tulowitzki, Harper, Braun, Crawford and Sandoval.

In terms of major surprises compared to draft positions, Segura and Brown are most prominent in the NL, with Segura's 10/1 odds the same as Buchholz's.

I also found it very interesting that not a single pitcher is among the top 21 NL MVP favorites while two are on the AL list.

My final view for this week is the players who were in the top 25 in ADP on March 28 but as of June are each worse than 33/1 odds to win their respective league MVP awards.

Top 25 ADP not listed MVP
March ADP
Matt Kemp (LAD)
4
Jose Bautista (TOR)
8
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)
13
Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
17
Jason Heyward (ATL)
19
Justin Verlander (DET)
21
Josh Hamilton (LAA)
23
B.J. Upton (ATL)
24
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)
25

Sure, Upton and Hamilton may be the favorite whipping boys in each league, but the reality is that Kemp and Joey Bats had been placed on a much loftier perch from which to fall.

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