The Fantasy Baseball Prospector: Amateur Draft First Glance

by on June 10, 2013 @ 11:30:54 PDT


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By Rob Leibowitz

The Rule 4 draft, as always, is the keeper leaguer's first glance at potential minor league squad picks for the following season. In other words, the depth of the draft and where the talent ultimately lands (AL or NL) may determine how hard they wish to push in order to obtain a good draft pick.

Arizona Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt
Goldy blocking Palka

Of course, draft picks in keeper leagues come by a variety of means. Whether the simple last-place team gets first minor league pick (dump as hard as you can and eschew league-minimum IP and AB requirements) or the first non-money spot team (have to rebuild and somewhat still compete at the same time) gets first pick could impact your strategy.

Generally speaking, with the exception of the truly top prep candidates, I tend to prefer to draft college players given their more rapid ascent to the majors. This is particularly noteworthy given the tendency of keeper leaguers to go for it one year and dump the next. This way, you are acquiring keepers while you rebuild one year and then deal the next when you make your championship run.

With that in mind, here are some thoughts on some key position players who will be drafted this year:


The catching class was not particularly deep this year. Reese McGuire was the top backstop selected (Pittsburgh Pirates). The lefty bat is skilled enough to stick behind the plate and could develop plus power as he matures. Andrew Knapp was the top collegiate receiver taken (Philadelphia Phillies). The switch-hitter has the tools to be a catcher, but it is unclear whether or not he will remain there given that his main tools are on the offensive side of things. The Atlanta Braves may have gotten a bit of a steal in Victor Caratini, who is a disciplined hitter with teens or better homer potential.

First Base

Dominic Smith was technically the first "true" first baseman selected in the draft. The lefty has a quick bat, great swing, good approach, and possible plus-power potential, but he will have to stick at first base for the long term. It will likely be a long while before he sees the majors given the New York Mets' one level at a time approach with other recent prep selections. D.J. Peterson (Seattle Mariners), a third baseman in college, will likely be the first 1B to make the majors from this draft class. Peterson is a patient right-handed hitter with 20-plus-home-run-per-season power. The next first baseman was not selected until the 88th overall pick (3rd round). Yellow Jacket Daniel Palka is a left-handed hitter with good raw power. Given the presence of Paul Goldschmidt, however, Palka may have to move to a corner outfield spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Second Base

L.J. Mazzilli (yes that Mazzilli) was the top collegiate second baseman selected in a rather weak crop. Granted, there were a number of shortstops selected who were ranked higher who may end up at second base in the long run. Like his dad, Mazzilli projects to be able to hit for average, provide high-single-digits-to-teens power and has decent enough speed/savvy to be a double-digit stolen base threat. Mazzilli is not a high-ceiling player but for now does project as an MLB regular.

3B, SS and OF to wrap up....

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