Fantasy Baseball Tumbling Dice: Dump or Trust?

by Lawr Michaels, MastersBall.com on May 28, 2013 @ 09:15:18 PDT

 

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Because we have come to the one-third mark of the season, it is time to assess your roster with more than a thought of "there is still plenty of time left."

To be sure, there is still plenty of time, but if your unproductive players don't drop the "un," the remaining four months of the season will slip away and as a result so will your chances for competing.

As we have seen recently with the Seattle Mariners' frustration over Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero, along with the Tribe's relegation of Lonnie Chisenhall, in a world rooted in patience, sometimes the hand of fate must be helped along.

So, let's look at some of the slow starters this season and try to judge whether we should sit them or keep on trotting them out, week-to-week, in our lineup.

San Diego Padres OF Carlos Quentin
Quittin' on Quentin?

Carlos Quentin (.218-5-16): The good news is, Zack Greinke aside, Quentin has been able to play pretty much every day for the San Diego Padres. The bad news is his average is 32 points below the outfielder's 162-game mean. However, if you have been watching the Friars as a team, and also are willing to note that, OPS-wise, Quentin is only about 40 points below his .838 career average over the same span, it is probably safe to let him play and get a chance to heat up during the summer months in San Diego.

B.J. Upton (.148-4-8): Ugh. So much for rebirth with a new team and being motivated playing with his brother. I am not sure if Upton is simply trying too hard -- or perhaps not hard enough -- but there is a painful trend towards "badness" in Justin's elder sib. Upton has not hit over .243 in five seasons, and his on-base numbers continue to tumble (.236 at present). Not to mention a guy with a speed game only has three swipes. At best I would think about swapping Upton to a team lower in the standings, ready to gamble. Then I would sit him. If I am in a really shallow league, with a better alternative in the reserve pool, I would consider dropping, believe it or not.

Rickie Weeks (.174-3-10): Almost "Ugh," but not as much as Upton. To Weeks' credit, last year he hit .199-8-29 with six swipes the first half, and .261-13-34 with ten steals in the second, so Weeks could be a classic cold first-, hot second-half player. I'd give him some latitude.

Mike Moustakas (.178-4-12): OK, a guy tears it up over two levels in the minors and has a .321-43-115 season. And we all drool at the next big thing. Well, that guy was Brandon Wood, who since has a .186-18-64 Major League presence. As opposed to Moustakas, who hit .322-36-124 -- also over a couple of levels in the minors -- and since has .240-29-115 totals. The Kansas City Royals grow weary of strikeouts. You should, too.

Ike and some SPs....

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About Lawr Michaels, MastersBall.com

Lawr Michaels has been a player in the fantasy baseball industry since he began writing for John Benson in 1993. He has written for STATS, Inc, was the first fantasy columnist for CBS Sportsline, and has appeared in numerous journals and on websites. In 1996, he founded CREATiVESPORTS, a staple for serious fantasy players, which he merged into Mastersball in 2010.

Over the years, Lawr has participated in a wide variety of playing formats and won numerous titles, including AL Tout Wars crowns in 2001 and 2009. Along with his Mastersball duties, Lawr works for MLB.com as a statistician.

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