Fantasy baseball FAAB rationale: AL LABR, Mixed Tout

      May 20, 2013 @ 17:00:00 PDT


LABR - AL-only

Rosters | Full transaction list (with failed bids) | Standings

Disabled list: Unlimited
Bids of $0: No
Vickrey bidding (winning bid reduced to $1 plus second-highest bid): No
Salaried player must be active unless not on his club's 25-man roster.

Drop Garcia, Freddy (P), BAL Didn't have high expectations a couple of weeks ago. Garcia met them. (Mean that in a good way.) No interest in keeping him for 2-start week vs. NYY, at TOR, especially with a trade in the works.
1. $1 Allen, Cody (P), CLE My miscalculation resulted in the waste of a buck. Wanted to cover Garcia's spot for intimidating 2-start week as well as the possibility that I'd be short a P with competent reliever after a potential trade. Dropped Allen afterward.
2. $1 Warren, Adam (P), NYY A backup miscalculation that would've resulted in the waste of a buck. For those tender moments, when you don't care to see your miscalculations not fail you.

Here's how I paid $1 for Cody Allen on Sunday night and then dropped him on Monday morning:

I wasn't willing to keep Freddy Garcia through this week, especially because his rotation spot may be a little tenuous. Jake Odorizzi was on my reserve list ($0), so I could substitute him if I wished. I entered a couple of bids to come reasonably close to ensuring that outcome, mostly in case I ended up including a pitcher or two in a prospective trade.

Tampa Bay Rays RP Joel Peralta
Insurance policy: Peralta

Earlier in the day, I sent word to my league-mates that I was willing to deal either an outfielder, a reliever who's logging saves or both to acquire a starting pitcher. I received some interest soon thereafter.

The swap I eventually made, with Steve Gardner (USA Today): I gave up Curtis Granderson and Fernando Rodney; he gave up Max Scherzer and Jonny Gomes.

I didn't need Allen to replace Garcia because the trade involved a solitary pitcher-for-pitcher exchange, so I could activate Odorizzi to replace the Baltimore Orioles' bum (affectionately). If I'd ended up dealing, say, the combo of Chris Perez and Vinnie Pestano or Rodney plus Kelvin Herrera and I hadn't entered those bids, I'd be stuck with Garcia (or zeroes from one of my minor leaguers or -- maybe worse -- Jordan Lyles, another reserve).

I didn't think to cancel my bids on Allen and Adam Warren. So, first, I wasted a whole dollar and, second, I activated Odorizzi because I wanted to gamble on the hunch that he would accumulate enough K's to make it worthwhile. Relievers like Allen are, of course, a dime a dozen.

But, I also secured one of the better starting pitchers in the Junior Circuit to address the multiple shortcomings of my pitching staff. Namely, those amount to a dearth of reliable starting pitchers, who accumulate innings, which correlate with strikeouts and loosely with W's -- at least if the dude pitches for the Detroit Tigers.

Tout Wars - Mixed

Rosters | Full transaction list (with failed bids) | Standings

OBP replaces BA
Disabled list: Unlimited
Bids of $0: Yes
Vickrey bidding (winning bid reduced to $1 plus second-highest bid): Yes

reserve JHammel Bal Not ready to give up on him, but Hammel is easily my poorest performer at P, at least of my starters. Not willing to clear space to activate Matt Garza for his first start of the year, with such a long layoff. Dropped Robbie Grossman.
1. bid 10 on JPeralta TB (Vickrey to $5) Don't care for insurance, but I play the game -- by the rules. This is a pittance to protect my investment (Fernando Rodney).
2. bid 1 on JGast StL He is a decent lefty, pitches for great organization and has potential long-term value (given his club's injury situation). He may turn out to provide acceptable depth.
3. bid 1 on JOdorizzi TB He is more skilled than Gast, but his stay is likely short-term, and the Tampa Bay Rays' reasons for choosing him to replace David Price this week suggest that their other young P's could easily be considered if there's a next time.

Here's how I determined that I was willing to pay as much as $10 for Joel Peralta:

This is a 15-team mixed league. There aren't many closers to go around. There'd be extremely low predictability about where I'd get saves and how much they'd cost were my investment in Rodney to lose value suddenly.

On April 1, Joaquin Benoit (speculative acquisition) went for $7 at the time. On April 8, Jim Henderson (he had the job, on only an interim basis at the time) went for $13, and Jose Valverde (speculative acquisition), $7 (to me). Those prices aren't bad, right? So I'll spare the rest of the closer purchases and list of exploratory bids between those and the winning number last week for Heath Bell: $38.

If someone else had been willing to pay more than $10, I could live with that. He may be wasting more than $10 on a player who could easily be of no use to him, and it's quite foreseeable. Peralta may be of no use to me, too, but my source of saves is close to protected. In a mixed league of 12 or fewer teams with standard rosters, it's so much less costly to acquire saves.

What is the proper amount? That depends on you. I obviously chose a pretty round number, something I don't ordinarily do. I wanted to make sure that I gave myself a convincing shot at winning Peralta, even if I would be uncomfortable with what the victorious number turned out to be, because I would be less comfortable with having to chase saves again. I also wanted to hurt the bankroll of the Peralta winner if it weren't me. Perhaps I'd make it more difficult for this other team who's also chasing saves to compete with me for them in the future, should I need them again.

If I didn't win Peralta, I wanted to add depth at starting pitcher. I became more aware of how much of that I have since my trade of Alex Cobb and because Hammel is struggling. In the end, naturally, it didn't matter. Phew.

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I explain the thought processes that went into my bids. Perhaps they'll be helpful to you. Perhaps feedback will be helpful to me. Glance at rosters to see the complete context.
About Nicholas Minnix

Minnix is baseball editor and a fantasy football analyst at KFFL. He plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570.

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