Fantasy Baseball Tumbling Dice: Beware the Arms of April

by Lawr Michaels, MastersBall.com on April 9, 2013 @ 09:39:56 PDT

 

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Just the other day, at our Mastersball site, Amanda Scarborough, manning the Mastersblog, noted the combined ERAs of Matt Cain, Jered Weaver, David Price, R.A. Dickey, Stephen Strasburg, CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels was 6.89 after a week of play and a couple of starts each. "Surprise, surprise," a la Gomer Pyle, was Amanda's header on that piece.

Philadelphia Phillies SP Roy Halladay
Dejected Doc

The reality is I was working the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals game Sunday, when after cruising for three innings, Cain ran into the buzz saw of seven straight hits, which wound up as nine fourth-inning runs, sending the Giants workhorse running to the showers in what seemed an untimely way.

The questions, though, are two-fold. As in first, does this mean pitching is going to be down this year since hurlers generally have the early season advantage over hitters?

Second, and equally important, should you own one of these guys -- not to mention Roy Halladay, Chris Tillman and Matt Harrison, as I do -- what should you do with them?

Well, the answer to question one has to be one of it might be a tough year for those pitchers, but alternatively strong performances from Matt Moore, Matt Harvey, J.A. Happ and yesterday even Ervin Santana should reassure a little that getting good steady pitching from anyone is often as ephemeral as getting good hitting from a seemingly steady producer.

But clearly from the above information, we can indeed deduce that good pitching has not gone south everywhere in baseball even if the universe of some of the guys considered the most steady is topsy-turvy.

More challenging is the question of what to do should you own an exploding arm.

For now, I would suggest nothing.

As in suck it up, for just as your team ERA is not likely to remain at 5.84, neither is your team batting average likely to remain .417.

But my stats look so ugly....

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About Lawr Michaels, MastersBall.com

Lawr Michaels has been a player in the fantasy baseball industry since he began writing for John Benson in 1993. He has written for STATS, Inc, was the first fantasy columnist for CBS Sportsline, and has appeared in numerous journals and on websites. In 1996, he founded CREATiVESPORTS, a staple for serious fantasy players, which he merged into Mastersball in 2010.

Over the years, Lawr has participated in a wide variety of playing formats and won numerous titles, including AL Tout Wars crowns in 2001 and 2009. Along with his Mastersball duties, Lawr works for MLB.com as a statistician.

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