American League Player outside of the Top 50 most likely to finish in the Top 10
TH: Alex Gordon - Great five-category production says uptick in power might be all he needs to do it. Austin Jackson a possibility, as well.
NM: Kendrys Morales - 2012 second half portends pre-injury form in store for 2013.
GM: Brett Lawrie - Has the tools. He needs to make adjustments, though.
LM: Howard Kendrick - Big year in there somewhere.
ZS: Matt Wieters - Might finally be ready to live up to "Joe Mauer with Power" hype.
RC: Jason Kipnis - He has the talent to end up as the top overall second baseman in fantasy, just has to put it all together and stay healthy.
TZ: Austin Jackson - If he keeps improving contact, a fantasy stud in the making.
National League Player outside of the Top 50 most likely to finish in the Top 10
TH: Freddie Freeman - Will have to go nuts in the non-SB categories, but definitely possible. Shin-Soo Choo is my zany choice.
NM: Adam Wainwright - Kind of hedging bets for NL fantasy Cy Young Award ... he should be back to pre-TJS form.
GM: Wilin Rosario - Maybe not top-10 but is better than everybody thinks. He could sneak into the top 25 if he plays to his ceiling.
LM: Ike Davis
ZS: Anthony Rizzo
RC: Ike Davis
TZ: Carlos Gomez - A nod to Cory Schwartz of mlbn.com for pointing out Gomez has a three-year trend of rising HR/FB and fly ball percent so power could sustain plus should get full season of at bats.
American League First-Rounder most likely to finish outside of the Top 100
TH: Albert Pujols - Would've picked Mike Trout except for fact that SB buoy his value.
NM: Mike Trout - Call me regression police or whatever else you want. The game isn't that easy.
GM: Jose Reyes - Only due to injury risk. He should be fine, but he's the most likely.
LM: Josh Hamilton - Age and drugs catch up.
ZS: Josh Hamilton - Injury-prone and could have trouble adjusting to new environment.
RC: Josh Hamilton - He seems like the safest bet to crash this year.
TZ: Albert Pujols - Tim took the words right off of my keyboard.
National League First-Rounder most likely to finish outside of the Top 100
TH: Buster Posey
NM: Buster Posey - He's a catcher who hasn't been hurt in either of the past two years. He might be due.
GM: Troy Tulowitzki
LM: Andrew McCutchen - Talented, but his team is not.
ZS: Troy Tulowitzki - Constant health woes the main reason.
RC: Buster Posey
TZ: Andrew McCutchen - Ironic that most stable skill is power. Can hit .260 as easily as .300, and I'm worried about steals as his success rate is poor and Starling Marte will take over the leadoff spot.
About Todd Zola, MastersBall.com
Focusing primarily on the science of player valuation and game theory starting in 1997, Todd Zola and Mastersball carved out an important niche in the fantasy industry. In 2006, Todd became the Research Director for fantasybaseball.com, and in 2009, he relaunched Mastersball and is now a managing partner.
Todd competes in Tout Wars and the XFL, and has been a multiple-time league champion in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. He has been a contributor to the fantasy content at MLB.com and SI.com, is a frequent guest on Sirius/XM and Blog Talk Radio and is an annual speaker at the spring and fall First Pitch Forum symposiums.
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