Fantasy baseball draft: Mixed Tout Wars roster, 5 thoughts
March 27, 2013 @ 12:25:00 PDT
- Mixed Tout Wars is experimenting with on-base percentage in place of batting average. I theorized that some of my opponents would let the rule change affect their prices and targets less than others would, automatically creating inefficiency. The poster children for increased value as a result of the change (basically, Adam Dunn) weren't my targets because, well, they're not exactly secrets.
I also theorized that standard rotisserie (BA, not OBP) commodities who lose significant value as a result of the switch (Adam Jones) wouldn't be discounted as much as they should be. The excessive allotment of dollars to such players would create opportunities to purchase money earners.
- I decided, if it appeared feasible based on how the first couple of rounds went down, I'd buy OBP (along with playing time) -- much like one might batting average -- especially when it coincided with power or stolen bases. OBP is a little more predictable than BA, and as a byproduct, it can be a little more difficult to make up ground in the former than the latter. (I've observed this in the FSWA IILs.)
By building a team that'll be among the leaders in OBP, I should've accumulated great quantities of runs and, with a reduced correlation, RBIs. I'll be shocked if I don't finish in the top three in OBP and a little surprised if I don't win the category, unless injuries decimate my squad.
- The idea is good, in theory, but I'm a little disappointed with my execution. I'm beyond pleased with my accumulation of OBP, but I wonder if I focused too much on it and not enough on home runs or stolen bases. I can live without a great deal of one or the other -- preferably, stolen bases, which are easier to acquire -- but, obviously, not both.
On the other hand, I've made a living in part by capitalizing on the acquisition of perceivably bearish assets that turn out to be worthwhile ventures. They don't all work out, of course, but enough of them have to keep me believing that my style is worthwhile, for me.
- My biggest concern: My standing in stolen bases is heavily dependent on Reyes, who'll be playing half of his contests on the Rogers Centre's artificial turf. I'm not worried because of that fact alone, but because of how magnified it is considering Reyes' importance to my club. I must acquire several players who could also make plus contributions in the cat.
- I'm sure that I come up well short in just about any set of projected standings you can find. (MLB.com's Cory Schwartz shared his, and I'm projected to finish 13th; OnRoto's haven't been optimistic about my chances in my first three go-rounds.) Wouldn't have it any other way. I've learned to be most comfortable in such a position.
I'll open with a few players who won't be on 25-man rosters as of opening day, and their short-term replacements (plenty of choices, initially) would make up some ground for me in those forecasts. The areas where I need the most help (stolen bases, saves) are where I prefer my shortcomings to be because of their relative ease of acquisition in the regular season.
- Big picture, I'm pleased. (Who isn't, at this stage? Sigh. I think a number of my opponents had very good drafts.) I bought considerable advantages in two categories (OBP, strikeouts) that have approximate effects on most of the others. Votto is, hands down, one of the top three products in this format, so I think he came at a relative markdown. I targeted Reyes and Zobrist for similar reasons. Joyce was a bargain, and Big Papi may very well be.
Now, the real work begins. Can't wait to get started.
About Nicholas Minnix
Minnix is baseball editor and a fantasy football analyst at KFFL. He plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.
The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570.
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