Baseball HQ: National League Facts and Flukes

by BaseballHQ.com on March 21, 2013 @ 12:48:14 PDT

 

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Unlucky Lee chugs along .... Count Cliff Lee (LHP, PHI) as baseball's unluckiest pitcher last season.

The veteran lefty managed to win just six of his 30 starts despite a very solid 3.23 ERA and 1.11 WHIP thanks to poor offensive support from his injury-plagued team.

Year    IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl  Dom   Cmd  hr/9  H%/S%    G/L/F   hr/f   BPV
====   ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ====  =====  ========  ====   ===
2010   185  3.18  3.37  0.8  7.8  10.3   0.7  30/70  42/18/40    6%   141 
2011   233  2.40  2.76  1.6  9.2   5.7   0.7  30/80  46/21/32    9%   146  
2012   211  3.16  3.23  1.2  8.8   7.4   1.1  32/77  45/18/37   12%   150  
Philadelphia Phillies SP Cliff Lee
More support, please

Lee's skills remain solidly intact:

  • He continued to strike out almost a batter per inning while becoming even stingier with walks.
  • Lee allowed a few more HRs than he did the previous two seasons thanks to an uptick in hr/f.
  • His BPV shows remarkable consistency and reflects an elite pitcher in his prime.

At 34, Lee continues to hum along as one of baseball's most dependable starters. He now has five straight seasons of a sub-3.20 ERA and 200 IP. He also has registered 200-plus Ks each of the past two years. That said, Lee's value was dinged by last season's 6-9 record. Expect his value to rebound. 

 

Garza: Solid, but health a gamble ... Matt Garza (RHP, CHC) barely logged 100 innings in 2012 but pitched admirably for a losing team before injury ended his season. Garza will begin this season on the DL, too. But when he does take the mound, what does he offer?

Year     IP    ERA   xERA   Ctl   Dom   Cmd   hr/9   H%    G/L/F   hr/f   BPV
====    ===   ====   ====   ===   ===   ===   ====   ==  ========  ====   ===
2009    203   3.95   4.07   3.5   8.4   2.4    1.1   28  40/18/43   10%    74
2010    205   3.91   4.46   2.8   6.6   2.4    1.2   28  36/19/45   10%    58
2011    198   3.32   3.24   2.9   9.0   3.1    0.6   32  46/21/33    8%   108
2012    104   3.91   3.54   2.8   8.3   3.0    1.3   28  45/19/33   16%   100

Garza's BPIs show no signs of trouble, except too many balls leaving the yard:

  • He lost a strikeout per game, but retains a solid Cmd level.
  • Garza's hr/f rate doubled, but only 1 of the 15 HRs he allowed was at Wrigley Field.
  • He posted a triple-digit BPV for a second straight year.

Garza will begin the season on the DL with a strained lat muscle and there's been no firm timetable given for his return. The uncertainty around his health will no doubt push down his stock at the draft table. But know that when he does take the field, his skills are solid and at the right price he could be a nice value for owners willing to take the risk.

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