Fantasy baseball busts, overvalued - OF

by Nicholas Minnix and Tim Heaney on March 25, 2013 @ 10:00:00 PDT


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Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs

As a power-first complement at a reasonable mixed investment (fourth or fifth fly-catcher), Sori will do. But when you're hoping someone can reach a .262 BA again and that he's traded to a better offense, you should see the risk in aggressively buying him. Though he took fewer cuts last year, his contact rate remained below-average, and his punch-out rate was his highest in a full season - at age 37, he's had plenty of them.

This Cubs lineup could surprise many, but you'll find an unpleasant surprise if you think he has the makeup to sustain or build on an outlier year. Soriano's 2011 can still be a reasonable benchmark, but chiefly if he reaches a market price that alleviates the punishment of visiting his low floor. -TH

Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics

The A's appear to have fleeced the Boston Red Sox since Reddick batted .242 with 32 home runs and 11 stolen bases for his division-winning club last season. He's assuredly a power hitter, but a closer look reveals that 10 of his bombs came in one month - May. After the All-Star break, he batted .215 with 12 dingers and three thefts in 316 plate appearances.

It won't be easy to belt 30-plus bombs again if is where he's playing half of his contests. His batting average, of course, was pretty heavily dependent on the homers. His indicators for the category imply that he otherwise has very little ground to make up in it. Reddick enjoyed a breakthrough season in many ways, but the most notable was PT. Don't overpay for the streaky 26-year-old. -NM

Ryan Ludwick, Cincinnati Reds

Ludwick can serve as a productive fourth or fifth mixed outfielder from time to time. His 2012 run was an example of his performance ceiling, which looks elite over stretches of a month or so here and there. He'll probably have the first crack at cleanup so he can split lefty sticks Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and this, on paper, seems to favor his everyday presence with his favorable split versus righty pitchers.

But besides a boost in ropes, few of his peripherals say he'll sustain that epic run. He still swings frequently, with too many of them finding air. Expect a painful regression in batting average. Also, Dusty Baker said Chris Heisey will get his reps, and he's considered their best center fielder on roster. If Shin-Soo Choo's experiment up the middle goes awry, Ludwick looks like the loser in terms of PT. -TH

Michael Saunders, Seattle Mariners

Saunders, thanks largely to an unusual routine he adopted prior to 2012 that involves taking BP with an incredibly heavy bat, finally had a breakthrough at the major league level. With his .247 average, 19 home runs and 21 stolen bases, he demonstrated the athleticism that once made him one of the organization's top prospects.

Seattle added some firepower to the order, a plus. Saunders is a superb defender in the outfield, so it'll take a lot for him to lose playing time.

The reality is, however, that his improved plate discipline is still sub-par. Saunders, 26, may get a little better in 2013, but there's definitely room for him to lose ground, too. The M's have a pretty deep bench, just in case. His is a breakout that took a lot of work, and from whence it came as well as where it ended up suggest that even bigger things aren't on the horizon. -NM

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Fantasy baseball sleepers, undervalued: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP

Fantasy baseball busts, overvalued: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP

About Nicholas Minnix

Minnix is baseball editor and a fantasy football analyst at KFFL. He plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570.

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