Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft: Round 6
After debating between Jered Weaver, Cain and Yu Darvish and deciding on Weaver, I got buyer's remorse. Should have I selected Cain, whose ADP is 37? This is 61st position. He will not be available on the way back. Cain is a 16-game winner with an ERA of less than 3.00.
Pasko Varnica made this decision easy with his double-tap into the starter well. Greinke was my highest ranked starter remaining; great strikeouts to begin with and a move back to the NL will help even more. The dimensions of Chavez Ravine should bring that HR/FB down to single-digits again.
I had no interest in third basemen here once Brett Lawrie went off the board, but I doubt that his availability would've convinced me to change my direction. I debated between Michael Bourn and a catcher. Yadier Molina is extremely stable, and Matt Wieters promises some upside. I'm confident in the stability of the roster I've put together, though, so I wanted to take a risk: Napoli's hip condition won't affect his production in 2012, and the regular first baseman's eligibility at catcher will earn extra money.
I don't like taking such commodities early ... usually. My thump has a sound base and my BA foundation needed another rock. This mighty mite gives me one, as well as 30-plus swipes, which opens up my middle- and late-round avenues instead of having to settle for a speed-first player; plus, the MI crop along those lines is shaky. If Altuve clouts double-digit bombs (more possible than most think), this will yield an even bigger payoff.
I didn't want to fill my CI position yet, but would have had either Pablo Sandoval or Brett Lawrie fell. I think I will get equitable pitchers if I wait and I do not think the value matches the cost with the available MIs. Best available OF makes the most sense and I need speed to balance out my lineup based on earlier picks. Worst case, Jennings is what B.J. Upton has been. Best case, enormous.
This could be my make-or-break pick in the draft. I considered Elvis Andrus as another middle infield option, but thought there was a better chance of a run on second basemen before my next pick. Kipnis is a bit of a batting average risk, but other than an aging Jimmy Rollins, I don't see any other 20-20 middle infielders left.
As critical as I am about Bourn as a baseball player, his fantasy value in roto leagues cannot be underestimated. Grabbing him in the 6th round all but assures me of being near the top of the stolen base category. He should also finally top 100 runs scored leading off for a good Indians lineup.
I felt the last of the top tier shortstops were about gone so acting on Andrus was the way to go with this pick. He isn't going to help in the power categories but he'll be solid in average, stolen bases and runs. Andrus gets overlooked at times but I think he is right outside that group of elite shortstops.
Wainwright's poor start to the year in 2012 was nothing more than bad luck; his skills (K/9, BB/9 and GB%) throughout the year were virtually identical to his skills during his 2010 and 2011 seasons when he posted a sub-3.00 ERA. I believe he will challenge for the Cy Young award in 2013.
As I continue to pile up offense, I targeted a versatile hitter who qualifies at two spots. You can make a legitimate case that my team, after seven picks, has to be looked at as a club that could hit .300. He's a nice little hitter, and I know Howard Bender wanted him badly.
After going hitting with my first five picks, I was thinking to look for a good starter here. I ended up going with Yu Darvish. Fantasy owners were a bit disappointed with Darvish last season, however, they forget that he moved to a new country and had never dealt with the oppressive heat in Texas. Now that he has adjusted, I think he has another level in him - perhaps as high as top 5 in the AL.
Rollins is certainly a flawed player, but it seems like undervalued. Since Rollins' rookie season in 2001, he's failed to reach 30 stolen bases just two times. He adds upper-teens-homer power to the mix, and he plays a position that lacks impact bats. Those are plenty of reasons to look past a batting average that's likely to finish in the .255-.265 range.
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