Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft: Round 5

by KFFL Staff on February 18, 2013 @ 12:50:11 PDT


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1) Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners

Team: Josh Shepardson, Baseball Prospectus | Roster

Starting pitchers sliding in an industry draft isn't unusual, and this draft has been no exception. I couldn't pass up getting an ace at the top of the fifth round. Hernandez is an innings horse that has surpassed 230 innings pitched with a sub-3.20 FIP each of the last four years.

Washington Nationals SS Ian Desmond
Desmond still has the goods

2) Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals

Team: Mark Bloom, RotoExperts | Roster

I am not sure why Ian Desmond always slips under the radar as he is a 20-20 shortstop who has more confidence in his swing thanks to the faith that manager Davey Johnson has shown in him. I would have considered Felix Hernandez had he still been on the board but am actually happier it worked out this way.

3) Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cincinnati Reds

Team: Ray Flowers, Baseball Guys/SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio | Roster

I could have gone the route of Michael Bourn here, but there seem to be players falling much later with similar skills (Juan Pierre, Ben Revere types). In the 5th I went with another across-the-board talent in Choo who should love hitting in Great American Ball Park.

4) Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City Royals

Team: Bill Macey, Baseball HQ | Roster

Butler is not a complete player - he's not going to steal any bases and he could be below average in runs. But I think he can get me 25 HR and a .300 batting average, which is what I need most at this point in the draft. He's also extremely reliable, which is very welcome given the risk I've already taken on in the previous rounds.

5) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves

Team: Jeff Paur, RTSports | Roster

I was hoping for Allen Craig with this pick but that didn't work out. He got taken a few picks after my last selection. I'm kind of regretting not taking Craig in Round 4 now since only one pitcher was taken after my selection of Lee. Oh well. I went with the next best first baseman as the elite guys were getting thin. I think Freeman is going to have a breakout year this year. He has been trending up and now has a lot of talent around him in the Braves' lineup. I think he could get 30 home runs and 100-plus RBIs.

6) Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees

Team: Michael Stein, The Hardball Times | Roster

After Paul Goldschmidt, Billy Butler and Freddie Freeman were off the board, I needed to make sure I got a first baseman with some power. Teixeira has struggled the past few years, especially in terms of his batting average. He may not approach the .290 range he used to reach, but I would settle for .260 with his standard 30 home runs and 100 RBI. [Ed. note: This draft took place in early February. Mike would not have picked Teixeira here if he were drafting today. Read on for how he adapted.]

7) Joe Mauer, C/1B, Minnesota Twins

Team: Steve Gardner, USA TODAY/Sports Weekly | Roster

He should also see time at first base, which will give him more at-bats than most catchers. And those should be quality at-bats too. Pairing him with Joey Votto gives me a rock-solid base in batting average that will allow me to take a chance on some riskier power and/or speed sources later in the draft.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim SP Jered Weaver
Weaver fell

8) Carlos Santana, C/1B, Cleveland Indians

Team: Mark Chamberlin, Baseball Sharks | Roster

I avoided Santana last year because I feared the sophomore slump and I am glad I did. He showed signs of breaking out of it in the second half and the front office took some pressure off his shoulders with the signings of Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds. Expect big things this year.

9) Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco Giants

Team: Tim Heaney, KFFL | Roster

Would've grabbed Santana if Mark didn't. Now, as to what actually happened: The weight risk made this difficult, but Panda still carries 30-homer, .300 BA upside, which is more than I can say about what else was left at the hot corner. Brett Lawrie entered my mind for a split-second. At least Sandoval can't break another hamate bone.

10) Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds

Team: Nicholas Minnix, KFFL | Roster

I had yet to address either of the middle-infield positions, and I don't have any of the shortstops remaining projected to earn close to what the top couple of second-sackers left could. I was extremely tempted to select Aaron Hill, but I opted for the track record of Phillips versus the somewhat greater upside (in the home run department) of Hill. Either way, I'm not losing out - good value, in my opinion.

11) Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Team: Howard Bender, FanGraphs | Roster

Felt like 3B and SP needed to be addressed here and even though Pasko Varnica had A-Ram, I opted to grab Lawrie just to feel at ease. So many great starters still available. Lawrie may not have the power most like at the hot corner, but he's another great 5-category guy with killer upside. The move down in the order should help increase the RBI total.

12) Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Team: Pasko Varnica, Mastersball | Roster

I considered Matt Cain and Yu Darvish, but chose Weaver because I trust that LAA will give him plenty of run support. That run support will translate into at least 16 wins, if not more. Whether other metrics will regress or bounce back is pure speculation.

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