Many players coming off a big season often wind up as fantasy baseball busts or overvalued players. Who should you avoid in your fantasy baseball drafts this season?
Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies
Unquestionably, Rosario's 2012 season was revelatory for Colorado. The organization must've hoped that the right-handed hitter would slowly wrest playing time from veteran front-runner Ramon Hernandez. They couldn't have expected the rookie to bat .270 with 28 home runs in his first full campaign, however. He flourished after the All-Star break.
The 24-year-old skipped the Class AAA level. He lacks experience against older competition, so he'll have a lot to prove in terms of his ability to make adjustments. That could mean trouble for someone who doesn't control the strike zone well, like Rosario (0.25 BB/K, 70.9 percent contact rate). Don't be so quick to group him with the top options at this position. -NM
Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
He plans on a mid-April return following October shoulder surgery. There was already plenty of doubt when he was active - fleeting reports of poor vision, and either infrequent or dull contact.
The readiness of drafters to place him among the position's top fantasy backups ignores the physical and skill-based flaws he carries. Plus, in Atlanta's newly loaded lineup, he'll likely reside in a less favorable run-production spot.
Sure, if doubters lower his cost, he's a decent bet for a late-season recovery, but when will he get there? Potential upper-body sluggishness jeopardizes the payoff from his chief contribution. Odds are we'll have to acknowledge a new, less attractive statistical baseline when he resurfaces. -TH
Derek Norris, Oakland Athletics
The power-hitting Norris struggled to close out last season, no surprise given his propensity to strike out and pull the ball. Oakland acquired John Jaso this past offseason because the rest of the lineup struggled to get on base. He represents somewhat of an upgrade at the position, offensively.
Jaso is expected to platoon with Norris, at least initially. Norris, a right-handed hitter, is on the wrong side of that situation. At the Triple-A and MLB levels, he hasn't walked nearly as frequently as he did at previous rungs on the ladder. Norris is working on his plate discipline and is an intriguing stash possibility, but that's about it unless he shows tremendous progress quickly. -NM
Fantasy baseball sleepers, undervalued: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
Fantasy baseball busts, overvalued: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
About Nicholas Minnix
Minnix is baseball editor and a fantasy football analyst at KFFL. He plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.
The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570.
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