Colin Kaepernick was far too lucky in Week 15

      December 19, 2012 @ 18:12:33 PDT

I was talking with KFFLer Herija Green today about San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick's future in the NFL, and we both agreed that we'd like to see more before making any kind of finite prognostication of his long-term fantasy worth.

What he did against the New England Patriots was impressive, on the surface, but as Herija pointed out, Kaepernick and the 49ers were awfully lucky in that game.

Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Kaep should buy a lotto ticket

Some of the points Herija made resonated with me, to the point that I felt compelled to share them. The inclement weather conditions, while the Patriots were playing on their home turf, favored the more physical 49ers, who were more aggressive from the onset of the game. One thing I noticed during the game was how out of sync the Patriots were on offense. Herija highlighted just how unlucky they were: seven of the eight fumbles in that game went San Fran's way. That can't be coached or practiced with 100 percent in-game executive success. Sure, some drills can improve a team's chances of landing on a loose ball, but that oddly shaped pigskin sometimes has a mild of its own.

The Frank Gore touchdown was fluky, as was the way the ball popped up into a defender's hands on one of Stevan Ridley's fumbles (returned for a touchdown).

Two of Kaepernick's throws should have been picked off - only one was. With a little less luck, CK could have thrown four interceptions rather than that many touchdown passes. Herija's comments had me watch much of the game again, and he couldn't have been more accurate with his assessment.

I would love to see how Kaepernick handles being down 14 points or so against a formidable defense. In fact, that just may happen against the surging Seattle Seahawks in Week 16 ... on the road, no less. Seattle has more on the line than the 49ers do, and I like the 'Hawks to win this one with a little help from the 12th man.

It is hard to imagine Randy Moss will return in 2013, and Michael Crabtree is just a little better than average. He is coming into his own this season, but that isn't good enough. Vernon Davis has fallen off the map, and the Niners need to upgrade their passing game. Perhaps rookie A.J. Jenkins can be that guy opposite Crabtree, as I don't see Mario Manningham as anything more than a glorified slot receiver. The 2013 offseason will be a fun one to watch when it comes to San Francisco's personnel moves.

Kaepernick could be very good in this league. However, I'm not ready to anoint him a premier passer just yet.

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About Cory J. Bonini

Cory is KFFL's General Manager. In late 2002, he joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, Bonini has been featured in print, on radio and on scores of websites. Bonini co-hosted Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 2011 to 2012.

Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.

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