Ready, Freddie? Freeman has more upside than risk for his price
December 12, 2012 @ 14:39:24 PDT
The first base class, when you get to the borderline-starter tiers, carries its annual volatility, and few draft picks will have a bigger impact on their 2013 fantasy baseball owners than Freddie Freeman.
A big part of me argues he's a middle-class Joey Votto who has a chance to vault his owners this year. Some point to his splits versus left-handed pitchers and often long swing to discredit that thought.
And that's valid, as shown in my recent discussion with Outliar Baseball. (Follow @OutliarBaseball. And yes, civil Tweet-offs happen. You just have to look hard.)
This article expresses the two aforementioned concerns as well as pointing to splits regarding his batting order place and performance against "power" pitchers.
Again, reasonable issues to have with a young hitter, but I contend things run deeper with the lefty masher to explain his erratic '12.
In June, when he was hit by a Jose Reyes throw during a slide into second base, Freeman incurred a swollen knuckle and suffered soreness on his left hand. It likely bothered him for much of the season; he'll rest it and get some cortisone shots in the offseason.
A mauled top mano will jeopardize anyone's power potential (especially with his home park) and ability to hurl a bat around. I won't deny Freeman has some pre-existing swing issues both mechanically and physically (the latter may have resulted, at least partially, from an adjustment to increased bulk last year). Still, he shows plenty of thump when he does connect. An interrupted path to the strike zone, of course, renders that moot.
And if I have to explain how bouts with poor vision affect at-bats, well....
Will he follow Brian McCann's path down the LASIK road? McCann has had on-and-off post-op issues that have hurt his stick game. As David O'Brien notes, Freeman had trouble seeing during a trip to Colorado and said it bothered him until early October, as he frequently was changing contact lenses. Freeman couldn't get comfortable locating the ball much of the year.
You don't want a hitter to be doing that much guesswork.
Though his sight was obscured, his final batting-eye ratio jumped to 0.50, including a gain of two percent in his walk rate - maybe from hoping he'll be pitched around, but nonetheless a promising trend for a young lumber wielder. Imagine the level of his pitch recognition if and when his peepers start working again and how his increased lineup protection (welcome, B.J. Upton) will help his game.
About Tim Heaney
Tim's work has been featured by USA Today/Sports Weekly, among numerous publications, and recognized as a finalist in FSWA's awards. The Boston University alum competes in Tout Wars and LABR and has won numerous industry leagues in both baseball and football.
During baseball and football season, he's on The Reality Check with Glenn Clark every Wednesday on 1570 AM WNST in Baltimore. He hits the airwaves every Thursday at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio, where he often crashes other shows, as well.
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