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Fantasy NASCAR practice recap: AAA 400
by Brian Polking
on September 28, 2012 @ 17:23:43
PDT
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In 2007, Martin Truex Jr. won his first-ever Cup Series race. The victory came in dominating fashion at Dover, and to date, it remains his only win at the Cup level. Off to a slow start in the Chase in what has been the best year of his career, this weekend's trip to Dover could be just what the doctor ordered for both his championship hopes and his winless drought. Truex topped the charts in the opening practice Friday, and after finishing seventh at the "Monster Mile" in June, a strong performance could be on tap. Even if Truex doesn't win, he is still looking like a solid addition to fantasy rosters.
Truex's performance was part of an impressive showing from Michael Waltrip Racing in the session. His teammate Clint Bowyer posted the second-fastest lap, and Mark Martin made sure all three MWR entries ranked in the top four. Like Truex, Bowyer and Martin have a history of success at Dover. Bowyer has finished eighth or better in three straight starts, including a career-best fifth-place run earlier this year. Meanwhile, Martin has seven top-15 finishes in his last eight starts at Dover and has finished second twice during the stretch. Not to mention the fact that his 9.4 average finish in the last 20 races at the track is the fourth best in the series. MWR has already had dominating team performances on multiple occasions this season, and it is appears another one could be in the works. Don't hesitate to load up on the MWR guys this weekend. The other two drivers to crack the top five in the first practice were Denny Hamlin and Greg Biffle, and while both drivers are big names, they do come with some question marks. Hamlin has won three of the five races leading up to Dover, but his record at the track leaves a lot to be desired. In 13 starts, he has compiled a 20.5 average finish and has managed just four top-10s. Not to mention that he has failed to crack the top 15 in his last three starts at the track. Biffle, on the other hand, used to dominate at the concrete oval. He is a two-time winner at the track, and from 2006 to the summer of 2009, he ripped off seven straight finishes of eighth or better. However, he has failed to crack the top 10 in his last four Dover starts, finishing outside the top 15 three times during the stretch. If fantasy owners are going to take a chance on one of the two, Hamlin is probably the way to go. He has a ton of momentum, and now that he is in the thick of the championship battle, the No. 11 bunch will be doing whatever it takes to have a solid showing Sunday. In Happy Hour, Jeff Gordon jumped to the top of the charts. Although a stuck throttle at Chicagoland has him buried in the standings, Gordon has finished third or better in four of his last five races. His numbers at Dover are mediocre, but he has finished 13th or better four times in the last five races at the track. As well as he has been running lately, Gordon could break back into the top 10 at Dover for the first time since 2009. Among the big names, he could make a nice under the radar option for owners this weekend. Joey Logano and Jimmie Johnson followed Gordon on the charts, and while Logano could make a solid sleeper play with three top-10s in his last five Dover starts, Johnson has to be considered among the favorites. He won at the track in June and has seven Dover wins for his career. In his seven starts since the beginning of the 2009 season, Johnson has four wins and a second-place finish at Dover. The five-time champ is basically a must-have for fantasy owners this weekend. While the rest of the faster laps were turned mainly by drivers outside the top 35 in points practicing in qualifying trim, Kyle Busch led the way in terms of 10-lap average speeds. He is a two-time winner at Dover, and he has finished sixth or better in four of his last five starts at the track. Despite missing the Chase, he has opened up the playoffs with a top-five finish and was on his way to a second top-five last weekend when he had an engine issue. Busch runs well at Dover, and he could be the first non-Chaser to score a playoff win in 2012. Kasey Kahne and Brad Keselowski also cracked the top-five in terms of 10-lap average speeds, along with MWR teammates Martin and Truex. Kahne and Keselowski have been two of the hottest drivers in the series in the second half of the year, and they have remained hot to open the Chase. Both drivers are capable of having a strong showing Sunday, but with back-to-back top-10s at the track, Kahne has a slight edge between the two in terms of value this weekend. Perhaps the biggest surprise of Friday's sessions was the horrible showing from Matt Kenseth. He ranked 44th in the first practice and 38th in Happy Hour, and even if he was only practicing in race trim, the times are still concerning. Kenseth is a two-time winner at Dover for his career, and he has finished in the top five in eight of his last nine starts at the track, including three straight. It's hard to imagine Kenseth suddenly becoming totally uncompetitive after such a hot streak, but it has happened at the track before with Tony Stewart. Unless Kenseth comes up with a fast lap in qualifying, fantasy owners may want to stay away from him this weekend despite his numbers at Dover. Happy Hour Speeds (sorted by Best Lap)
10-Lap Average Speeds (must run 10 consecutive laps)
First Practice Speeds (sorted by Best Lap)
10-Lap Average Speeds (must run 10 consecutive laps)
About Brian Polking
Racing has been part of Brian's life ever since he can remember, and he spent his childhood at dirt tracks throughout Ohio and Kentucky watching his father race. NASCAR naturally became his favorite sport, and he has been following the Cup, Nationwide and Truck Series for most of his life. Brian majored in journalism and economics at Ohio State University and becoming a sports writer has always been his dream. Although he has covered everything from minor league baseball to the NCAA tournament, his passion has always been NASCAR. Brian has served as a NASCAR writer for a variety of sites, eventually becoming head editor of the NASCAR section for Fanball.com. His knowledge of NASCAR comes from his life-long love of racing, and he tries to add a personal touch to every article he writes. Brian is always up for talking NASCAR with anyone that wants to. Brian joined KFFL's team in 2011. Follow @kffl_racingDon't miss these great reports....
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