Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Chase Headley

by Nicholas Minnix on September 13, 2012 @ 11:11:56 PDT's Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market gives you candid reviews and ratings of fantasy baseball players making MLB news in your rotisserie or head-to-head baseball leagues. Are they trade bait or worth your FAAB dollars in your fantasy baseball games?

Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres 3B Chase Headley
Lumber has trumped leather

Coming into this season, some fantasy owners wisely viewed this switch-hitting third baseman as a value play for his projected double-digit contributions in the home run and stolen base categories. He's long possessed the power to hit 20-plus homers, but even his biggest fans must've figured that hitting such a plateau would be difficult because he suits up at PETCO Park for half of his contests.

How surprised is the roto community, then, that Headley swatted his 20th ding dong on Aug. 18? In fact, on the second page of Lord Zola's first edition of the by-position Review and Preview, the beneficent baseball baron surmises that the mad Friar may receive less recognition than any other 30-homer hitter before him, if he gets there. (He has 27.) In fact, he probably deserves more attention for his 30 home runs than most others do.

Headley hit the All-Star break with a modest eight round-trippers in his 315 at-bats (one every 39.4 ABs). He's been on a post-break tear (19 in 224 at-bats, one every 11.8 at-bats) that puts his going-yard frequency on the other side of the rates of players like Josh Willingham, however. (See Headley's Fangraphs splits for 2012 for an array of other comparisons, as well.)

Headley seems unlikely to slow down - much, anyway - in the final three weeks of the season. Mike Podhorzer, a writer for the previously mentioned comprehensive statistical resource, warns that the kind of power numbers we've seen from Headley are far from likely to occur again in 2013. It's lunacy to disagree.

Although this is probably some kind of growth campaign for the highly coveted (on the barter market) third baseman, he is no sure thing in San Diego, which is where he's likely to remain next season, at least until near the trade deadline. Headley's 2013 projection will almost certainly be far less optimistic than the prices his suitors are willing to pay will indicate. He's set up to be one of the most overvalued assets next spring.

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About Nicholas Minnix

Minnix is baseball editor and a fantasy football analyst at KFFL. He plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570.

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