Fantasy Baseball Round Table: Ryan Braun or Mike Trout, more rest-of-season decisions
I think A-Gon will simmer down a bit and Teixeira will heat up. Not much science, guess just feel for pace and Tex's history of second-half love. It's quite close, though, and A-Gon closes the gap much tighter in OBP/SLG leagues.
I side with Lincecum over Lester just because of the division and schedule, and (don't ignore this) because Boston is falling apart off the field. Lincecum has looked more assertive on the mound - that was probably the biggest hump he had to get over besides fixing his mechanics. Lester's movement has looked better over the last few months, but NL West > AL East as the unbalanced schedules kick in.
Kemp over McCutchen, because I foresee the Dodger keeping his pace better than McCutchen will the rest of the way. Having Shane Victorino in the lineup will reinvigorate LA, and I trust Kemp to keep up such ridiculous indicators more than I do Cutch.
Just because Dempster moved to the worst possible location post-deadline, I'll go with Blanton, reluctantly. Chavez Ravine, on the other hand, was an ideal landing spot for Blanton.
Fielder is really starting to turn things on, and as much as I love Craig, I gotta go with the track record and the guy hitting behind Miguel Cabrera.
I side with Trout because of his lineup support and grander steals pace. The most shocking answer for me in this one, for sure.
Perry Van Hook
Joe Blanton or Ryan Dempster? - Blanton. Dempster in Arlington is putting the fire out with the gas can ... he should have stayed in the NL where the fall off wouldn't have occurred - especially pitching in Dodger Stadium.
Adrian Gonzalez vs. Mark Teixeira - Teixeira. Gonzalez has turned into almost extreme ground ball hitter and his approach at the plate is the most aggressive he's been in any full season of his career. You can't rely on him to hit for power and every HR down those final weeks if you're in the hunt for first place can be huge.
Lincecum vs. Lester - Tough choice as the skills seem there for both pitchers, but their heads are not. Lester's K/9 has now dipped each of the past three seasons. I'll go with Lincecum for the strikeouts, win potential, not having to face a DH, and better ballpark.
McCutchen vs. Kemp - I'd feel golden with either. I'll go with Kemp on the basis that he has hit only 6 fewer HRs and 8 fewer steals than McCutchen in approximately 200 fewer plate appearances.
Blanton vs. Dempster - Blanton's nothing special, but at least he has moved to a pitcher's park and doesn't have to face the DH. I'll reluctantly go with the guy who probably throws too many strikes for his own good.
Fielder vs. Craig - Fielder. Track record for power is legitimate, plus given his ability to make consistent contact with authority is a better bet for him to retain a .300 batting average for the rest of the season than Craig, a right-hander who is striking out about 20% of the time. The Cardinal is the more likely to come back to earth.
Trout vs. Braun - I'll go with Trout given the not too significant power reduction, but significant speed benefit. There's also the side though that with the Brewers out of it, should Braun get at all dinged up, he could be shut down while the Angels should be in it to the end.
Lord Zola's Wrap-up
The choice of Teixeira and Gonzalez involves a couple of first baseman, one that historically excels the second half and the other who is quietly scorching since July 1. In his previous 37 games spanning 143 at bats, Gonzalez is hitting a whopping .378 with 7 HR, 37 RBI and 23 runs. Prorated to a full season, that's 30 HR, 160 RBI and 100 runs, basically what is expected save for the bloated average. While I'm not quite ready to say the old Gonzalez is back, I am more optimistic, especially for next season. As for which one I would take, I agree with Perry: Tex for HR, A-Gon for average.
Back in March, a discussion involving Lincecum and Lester could have been about possible Cy Young candidates, now it is which disappointment will come closer to returning to form. Both have expected ERA's better than their real ERA's. And while I realize Lincecum is in the NL, pitches in a favorable park in an easier division, Lester's peripherals are more appealing to me, especially the walk rate so I would go against the tide and take him.
For what it's worth, I tend to ignore some of the anecdotal analysis such as team standing and whether or not the team recently had a clandestine meeting trying to get the manager fired. I am not saying doing this is better, just different strokes for different folks.
I have taken a beating over at ESPN for twice advising to sell high on McCutchen, specifically suggesting his power will regress. For the record, since I first made that declaration on July 18, Cutch has a measly one dinger. Did you know McCutchen has not stolen a base since June 19? In the 29 games Kemp has played since returning, his is hitting .363 with 5 HR, 20 RBI, 23 runs and has even swiped 4 bags. Give me Kemp all day long.
I think my favorite comparison is Blanton versus Dempster. Blanton is a run-of-the-mill innings eater while Dempster was sporting an ERA near 2.00 pre-trade and was one of the Majors nice stories. Before they were traded, no one in fantasy would have dealt Dempster for Blanton. Much like real estate, their present value is all about location, location, location. I think Nick nailed it - Blanton's outstanding K/BB will play better in Dodgerland than Philly.
Since June 1, Craig has 4 DNP's and has pinch-hit 4 times. He's a full-time player, I have no worries with respect to playing time. He hit 5 HR in May, June and July and has 2 thus far in August so another 5 is well within reach. This prorates to 30 in a season, which is what can be reasonably expected from Fielder. I'm a guy who relies on historical performance, but in this instance, I am going to go with Craig as a high-risk, high reward pick especially if you have to make up ground.
I have taken a beating over at ESPN for twice advising to sell high on Trout, specifically suggesting his power will regress. For the record, since I first made that declaration on July 18, Trout has a ... measly ... eight ... dingers. Sigh, win some, lose some. What Trout is doing is historically insane. He's making analysts look like idiots and risk takers look like geniuses. On the other hand, Braun has been the best fantasy player over the past three seasons. I'll take three seasons over three months, even if the months are amongst the best ever.
About Todd Zola, MastersBall.com
Focusing primarily on the science of player valuation and game theory starting in 1997, Todd Zola and Mastersball carved out an important niche in the fantasy industry. In 2006, Todd became the Research Director for fantasybaseball.com, and in 2009, he relaunched Mastersball and is now a managing partner.
Todd competes in Tout Wars and the XFL, and has been a multiple-time league champion in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. He has been a contributor to the fantasy content at MLB.com and SI.com, is a frequent guest on Sirius/XM and Blog Talk Radio and is an annual speaker at the spring and fall First Pitch Forum symposiums.
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