Fantasy football analysis draft: Round 11
KFFL.com's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft (FAD) brings you behind the scenes on all 16 rounds of an actual fantasy football league draft. Each of our experts participating give you their analysis on why they took the player they did. This is not a mock fantasy football draft; this league will be played out during the course of the 2012 fantasy football season ... each participant is drafting to win!
A standard scoring system with one point per reception (RB-WR-TE) was used for this draft.
Fantasy football analysis: Yes, Moss took a year off after quitting on three teams in 2010. And, yes, Alex Smith is not much of a gunslinger, and recent reports say the new passing offense is experiencing some growing pains. However, a happy Moss (and Moss has been extremely thus far in camp) is a productive Moss. Should Moss flame out as many fear or Smith simply can't deliver the ball to him frequently enough having to drop my fifth wide receiver is not going to break my team. If Smith is ever going to develop into the quarterback the 49ers envisioned when they drafted him it will happen this season, with a big boost coming from Moss. Consider me intrigued.
Fantasy football analysis: While it appears Doug Martin is the top dog among the backs for the Bucs, he's an unproven rook and we've seen plenty of them fall on their faces over the years. Blount had a down year in '11, mostly due to the Bucs playing from behind often and not being able to give him the necessary touches. He's a load to bring down and fairly nimble for a big guy, but he lacks the team's confidence on third downs. In a worst case, I see him splitting time with Martin in a 60-40 or 70-30 split in Martin's favor. As my RB4, he provides me with plenty of upside and little downside based off the late pick investment. His floor is 600 yards rushing and six touchdowns; his ceiling might be more than double that if the stars align for playing time.
Fantasy football analysis: Week 7 looks like it's going to be a real bitch. Who cares. Baldwin is one of the most talented receivers remaining, and the more time Dwayne Bowe spends at home, washing his tights, the more time a dedicated Baldwin spends working as KC's No. 1 wideout. The Chiefs' offense is built on the running game, but a rebounding Matt Cassel throwing to the talent that his team has amassed outside may provide them with the tools to be somewhat balanced.
Fantasy football analysis: Williams is essentially in his first year in the NFL after missing his entire rookie season due to a serious knee injury suffered in the preseason. He and Beanie Wells will form a powerful, yet very brittle tandem. Williams has the most upside, and should be a solid flex option at times when the matchup is favorable.
Fantasy football analysis: Celek took some time to find chemistry with quarterback Michael Vick at the start of the 2011 season but finished the season with a touchdown in each of his last three games. Celek has not put up amazing stats during the last few seasons but is a reliable target for Vick. I would be fine with similar stats that posted in 2011 but a little improvement in each category would be a bonus.
Fantasy football analysis: Last year was a lost campaign for Bradford due to injuries and the presence of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator. I'm expecting St. Louis as a whole to rebound dramatically, making Bradford a sleeper as my backup QB. Hopefully I won't need him much, but Stafford has only put together one healthy season to date, so I needed to protect myself.
Fantasy football analysis: RB Adrian Peterson is still trying to fully recover from a knee injury and faces possible disciplinary action from a recent resisting arrest case that is winding its way through the court system. His return is uncertain both as to date and also as to what his condition will be. Gerhart is a very capable backup who will start in his absence. Thus, at least at the beginning of the season, Gerhart is probably going to start and should be a decent RB to have. I selected him to be my RB3 and to provide depth. If Gore is injured or gets off to a poor start, Gerhart will start for me. His numbers are difficult to predict since we don't know how much he will play nor for how long. I believe he will be at a minimum, a solid back up for me. I will watch him during the preseason, and depending on the situation on opening day, I may even start him as a flex play.
Fantasy football analysis: Can he take hold of the reins in the role the team envisioned for Marion Barber III in goal line and short-yardage situations? We'll see. I'm taking Bush with the hope that he can thrive as a touchdown vulture. Lead back Matt Forte saw a lot of action last season in receiving and rushing situations. Now that he's under a long-term contract, maybe they'll scale him back a bit.
Fantasy football analysis: It has been a very long time since I drafted five running backs before I had a fourth receiver, but there isn't much left at the position with these wideout-hungry drafters. I'll take my chances with Hillman. I dig his explosive nature and versatility. He should see ample work in this offense. I really don't have statistical expectations in mind, but I can see him being used as my flex player on occasion.
Fantasy football analysis: Since my Willis McGahee handcuff fell right before my pick, I'll take the other toter I was considering. Well, he's more so a catcher than a toter. The Falcons are knocking a bit off Michael Turner's workload in favor of the playmaker Rodgers, whom I expect to catch at least 40 passes in 2012. Touchdowns will probably be hard to come by, but a Turner injury or breakdown should open things up for J-Rod to dance into, at minimum, consistent PPR flex territory.
Fantasy football analysis: I was torn between selecting Thomas or San Francisco 49ers running back Brandon Jacobs here in the 11th round and chose Thomas because Miami's backfield situation is far less crowded. As a rookie, he gained 581 yards and appears to be in the lead for the No. 2 spot on the Dolphins' depth chart behind Reggie Bush. However, he'll have to improve on the 3.5 yards per carry he averaged last season or he'll find himself buried behind Steve Slaton and Lamar Miller, as well.
Fantasy football analysis: Nothing like handcuffing an injury-plagued running back with a guy that missed his rookie year, but Leshoure was a second-round pick, and he will get his chance to prove himself this season. Kevin Smith will be in the mix, but Detroit opted not to re-sign him once before for a reason. Smith isn't a feature back, and Leshoure might be. At the very least, I see the 230-pound back getting his carries at the goal line.
How do you feel about each selection? Would you have made the same move? We want to hear your thoughts in the comments area below.
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