Fantasy football analysis draft: Round 1

by KFFL Staff on August 1, 2012 @ 18:26:50 PDT


Pages 1 | 2 | all's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft (FAD) brings you behind the scenes on all 16 rounds of an actual fantasy football league draft. Each of our experts participating give you their analysis on why they took the player they did. This is not a mock fantasy football draft; this league will be played out during the course of the 2012 fantasy football season ... each participant is drafting to win!

A standard scoring system with one point per reception (RB-WR-TE) was used for this draft.

1) Arian Foster, running back, Houston Texans
Team: Eric McClung | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: Arian Foster may have stopped eating meat but he's the filet mignon of fantasy football. The other playmakers on the Texans have a thing for getting dinged up, which gives Foster a hefty load to carry each week. Matt Schaub is coming off a foot injury, Andre Johnson already has a mild groin sprain and Owen Daniels is made of glass. Foster is an elite back and the secondary receiver on a team that needs him to touch the ball 20-plus times a game. If Jason Peters wasn't out for the season I'd give LeSean McCoy a lot of consideration for the No. 1 spot.

2) LeSean McCoy, running back, Philadelphia Eagles
Team: Ryan R. Bonini | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: McCoy doesn't have a metric ton of mileage on his legs and is young. He is on a very deep, balanced Philly team that works him in on the ground and through the air. Securing my RB1 at the top of the draft was important, and only a couple of backs have as few questions surrounding them as McCoy does. He won't share many touches, he'll catch at least 45 passes, and he'll see the work in the red zone. I expect 1,300 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns to go along with at least 300 yards receiving and another couple of scores.

3) Ryan Mathews, running back, San Diego Chargers
Team: Nicholas Minnix | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: Ray Rice is about as safe as you can get at this spot, and more often than not, I'd take him here. True year-to-year consistency is a rarity, however, and that's probably true of no position more so than RB. I'll use Rice's possible decline in TDs as one more little reason to go big or go home with Mathews, 2012's breakout candidate extraordinaire, who has a better schedule and sounds much more prepared, physically and mentally, to be the type of back San Diego expected him to be when they drafted him.

Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

4) Ray Rice, running back, Baltimore Ravens
Team: Dan Dobish | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: I thought hard about taking Aaron Rodgers here, but Ray Rice is really the only elite level fantasy back remaining, even at this early juncture. I worry about MoJo's contract situation, I don't like Matt Forte as much with Michael Bush also on the roster, and Darren McFadden is too brittle for my liking.

5) Calvin Johnson, wide receiver, Detroit Lions
Team: Tim Piotrowski | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: I decided to take arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in Johnson instead of taking a running back since I am not sure any of them are a safer bet than Johnson. Johnson is playing in an offense that throws a lot and he has been the beneficiary of that style of offense. With continue improvement from quarterback Matthew Stafford, I think Johnson can at least match his 2011 stats.

6) Darren McFadden, running back, Oakland Raiders
Team: Keith Hernandez | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: I know this is a big risk, but McFadden is 100 percent healthy from the foot injury that caused him to miss nine games last year. The new offense in Oakland will further utilize his open-field prowess. When healthy, he can easily be a top-five rusher. Don't forget, he was the leader in fantasy points before he was injured last year.

7) Aaron Rodgers, quarterback, Green Bay Packers
Team: Jack Douglas | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: The safest running backs were gone and also the best wide receiver, so it was a good time to select the top-rated quarterback. Rodgers has a plethora of weapons to throw to on a team that likes to air it out. He is 28 years old and just starting to hit his prime. He should be able to at a minimum meet last year's totals of 45 passing touchdowns for 4,643 passing yards. He also takes care of the ball, as evidenced by a mere six interceptions in 2011. The sky is the limit.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

8) Maurice Jones-Drew, running back, Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: Ryan Dodson | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: I don't like taking players early with question marks, but here's hoping his holdout doesn't turn into a CJ2K down year. MJD has rushed for 1,300 yards three years in a row and has been pretty healthy throughout his career. His 4.7 YPC average was his largest since his rookie season, and I feel if I don't snag a bankable running back here, it may be tough to find one later. I expect another 1,300 yards and maybe 9 or 10 TDs.

9) Chris Johnson, running back, Tennessee Titans
Team: Cory J. Bonini | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: Johnson is the most intriguing running back choice left for me with this pick, because he represents boom or bust. I am not a fan of Matt Forte or Trent Richardson this early, and the only wideout to cross my mind was Larry Fitzgerald. I'm not one to draft a quarterback in the first round. CJ2K will rush for at least 1,300 yards and score nine or more ground touchdowns. I think he can catch 40 balls for 350 yards and score twice through the air, too. Picking ninth this year kind of stinks.

10) Wes Welker, wide receiver, New England Patriots
Team: Tim Heaney | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: This part of the first round frightens and confuses me. But wait, Unfrozen Caveman Drafter, here's a PPR security blanket, a highly touted member of one of the league's best offenses who's a 100-reception bet over a full season. He failed to register 10 PPR points in a game just twice last year. With the mess left at RB and my stubborn refusal to take a QB or TE this early, why not go with under-appreciated consistency?

11) Matt Forte, running back, Chicago Bears
Team: Jared Byrd | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: Keeping in mind that this is a PPR league, I wanted to use my first-round pick on a running back who also happened to be a pass-catching threat. The 26-year-old Forte appeared to be on the way to the best season of his career in 2011, with 1,487 all-purpose yards in only 12 games, before being sidelined with a knee injury. However, he has fully recovered and won't be distracted by his contract situation after recently signing a four-year deal. I predict that Forte will have 1,100 rushing yards, 550 receiving yards and 60 receptions in 2012.

12) Trent Richardson, running back, Cleveland Browns
Team: Brian Polking | Team Roster | League Scoring

Fantasy football analysis: There aren't many workhorse running backs left in the NFL these days, but Richardson is pretty much the only weapon Cleveland is going to have on offense this season. He is going to get plenty of touches, get the ball at the goal line, and catch passes out of the backfield. Playing in the AFC North won't be easy, but Richardson more than held his own in the SEC. In a world of running back committees, Richardson is the only show in town for the Browns. I expect a big rookie season.

How do you feel about each selection? Would you have made the same move? We want to hear your thoughts in the comments area below.

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