Fantasy Baseball Tumbling Dice: Halla-deal?

by Lawr Michaels, on July 17, 2012 @ 10:15:21 PDT


Other than the fairly rugged - as in 2-5 - week my Scoresheet team had just before the break, my Sluts and Prostitutes team in the H2H Murphy League has been chugging along pretty well.

In fact, while I was pretty much going crazy having lost starting pitching a few months back, suddenly I find myself rich in starters (not that anyone can have too much pitching, right?).

I did make a swap for Barry Zito and Mark Buehrle, so along with that esteemed pair, I also have Clayton Kershaw in the "dependable" column.

But, as a result of ineffectiveness, injury, uncertainty, or all the above, I also have Shaun Marcum, Francisco Liriano, Nathan Eovaldi, Luke Hochevar, David Phelps, Alexi Ogando, and that Roy Halladay guy.

Since I had been trudging along in playoff contention despite the erratic hunk of hurlers - not to mention sans Doc - I figured now was a good time to trot out Halladay and just see what he might be worth before he was reactivated.

I did get a couple of queries for my pitching, for my troll was simply that I had arms available, and that anyone not named Kershaw was negotiable.

Interestingly, the team that swapped me Buehrle a couple of months back when they had a pitching surplus queried about getting him back, and another team offered Adam Dunn and Craig Gentry for Doc, but that was not what I was looking for.

What I was really hoping for was some future prospects, and I mean that in the loosest of senses, for I am sure the owners of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper were not letting go of their treasures.

On the other hand, possibly Yoenis Cespedes, or Eric Hosmer, or Jason Kipnis, or some other up-and-comer would be tossed out there.

Not that I don't trust Halladay; on the contrary, he is great, and I am pretty sure he will recover well from his injury and pitch pretty well for the rest of the season.

But, I don't think he will be quite as dominant as he was, and by next season he will be 35, meaning logically Doc should start the downside of his career. And, though he could indeed have two or three good seasons left, somehow I am gambling that again his most dominant days are behind him.

Now, I need to note that as a kid, I was a big Dodgers fan, and during the '60s, the Bums carried out a bunch of swaps that made me wonder at first.

Claude Osteen for Frank Howard. Rick Monday for Bill Buckner and Ivan De Jesus. Tommy John for Dick Allen.

In every case it seemed like the Dodgers gave up too much for their stars, but Osteen was good for nine more years in the Dodgers' rotation, while John and Monday both stayed on for seven more years in Dodger Blue.

Conversely, though, Howard, Allen, and Buckner did post a good season with their new teams, that was pretty much it, and within a few years, their respective careers were over.

In fact, the Dodgers' philosophy then was to trade a star a year before he went south statistically. That way the receiving team would not feel particularly taken over the long haul by any swap, even if the stats and subsequent production proved otherwise.

So, I thought I would deal Doc Halladay in that vein. Or, at least try.

Unfortunately the swap I had in mind did not work out, as I countered a deal with the Adam Dunn team, but he had already traded one of the two things I coveted: his 19th-round pick in next year's draft.

That is because one of the rule changes the Murphy league employed this year was that in addition to the soft eight freezes each team could keep, we could each also retain the rights to up to three 19th-round selections.

Furthermore, the 19th-round was reserved for prospects - or at least players with no major league experience - meaning you could carry three Dylan Bundys or Jurickson Profars in the 19th round.

In addition, I was trying to get the ninth-round pick in the draft, which is essentially the first round after the soft eight rounds (if you are curious about the term soft eight, it means that should teams freeze fewer than that number, the draft started with those teams possessing fewer than the number eight, and then began for all, in earnest, when every team indeed had eight players on their roster).

So, in essence I was looking to augment my team with someone's first round and 19th-round selections for the services of Mr. Halladay.

Unfortunately, now the trade deadline has passed, so I will have to wait until the offseason to try and swap the Doc.

In the meantime, as I noted, we are still indeed in the hunt, so I can actually see just how much gas Roy has in the tank. But, what I would still hope for is the same deal, so the worst I come out with is at least a fair idea of Halladay's worth.

The good news will mean my trade should be good during the offseason.

I don't want to think about the bad.

Hey, now you can get me on Twitter at @lawrmichaels!

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About Lawr Michaels,

Lawr Michaels has been a player in the fantasy baseball industry since he began writing for John Benson in 1993. He has written for STATS, Inc, was the first fantasy columnist for CBS Sportsline, and has appeared in numerous journals and on websites. In 1996, he founded CREATiVESPORTS, a staple for serious fantasy players, which he merged into Mastersball in 2010.

Over the years, Lawr has participated in a wide variety of playing formats and won numerous titles, including AL Tout Wars crowns in 2001 and 2009. Along with his Mastersball duties, Lawr works for as a statistician. Fantasy Baseball

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