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Fantasy Baseball: Closers calling it quits on cutters

February 22, 2012

Now that pitchers and catchers have reported - about time, right? - we can start dissecting players on an individual basis as they tweak and perfect their game for the upcoming season.

Yes, we know, every other story you read on a guy this spring is likely to be a BSOML (best shape of my life) account. Along those lines, there are a frequent number of reports indicating that a player has either added bulk and muscle to his frame or has trimmed down.

Kansas City Royals RP Joakim Soria
Soria hit small bump in the road

If you aren't tired of hearing all of this chatter yet, you probably will be by the time the first spring games have kicked off in early March.

I tend to focus on extremely specific mechanical tweaks from pitchers, batting-stance adjustments from hitters and anything that could suggest a more measurable form of a player's performance as it pertains to his fantasy baseball outlook for 2012.

There is no way of accurately predicting whether an adjustment will affect a player in a positive or negative way, but that's what spring training is for; everyone has a chance to try out a new stance or a new delivery, and we'll have somewhat of an idea as to how this might carry over into the regular season.

Recently, I've noticed that a decent amount of starting pitchers have been particularly focused on either adding a cut fastball or refining a cutter that they're not very proud of. Zack Greinke, Jered Weaver and Ricky Romero are several that come to mind in the starting-pitching lot.

On the flip side with the cut fastball, two relievers this spring have opted for the opposite approach; they have decided that the cutter has had negative effects to their productivity out of the pen.

Carlos Marmol and Joakim Soria, two high-end closer talents that may be undervalued heading into the 2012 fantasy baseball season due to their '11 struggles, will no longer employ cutters in their arsenals.

Soria didn't just come to the realization that the cutter wasn't the best idea for him this spring. 2011 was easily his worst season as a pro; he posted an ERA of 4.03 with 28 saves. But more importantly, he blew seven save chances and was even demoted from the role temporarily to get his mechanics right.

After trying to incorporate the cutter into his repertoire over the first couple of months last year, Soria ditched the pitch. He posted ERAs of 4.63 in April and 8.71 in May, and at that point he also developed bad mechanics, which pitching coach Dave Eiland has pointed out.

Aside from the mechanical flaws that can be corrected, the cutter negatively affected his other pitches, as he has acknowledged. After he abandoned the new pitch, he was able to secure an ERA of 2.58 over his final 37 outings.

This spring, with the cutter a thing of the past, Soria isn't making many adjustments based on the way he finished the '11 campaign. There isn't any reason to believe he can't return to his '10 form, especially since his BABIP and HR/9 rates soared last year.

Marmol similarly flirted with a cut fastball last season and also posted an ERA over 4.00 as a result. New skipper Dale Sveum and pitching coach Chris Bosio have already convinced Marmol to drop the pitch this year.

Unlike Soria, Marmol's downfall has always been his ability to control the strike zone. There's a tradeoff, though; his career K/9 rate is above 11.00. So if you're willing to sacrifice in the WHIP department here, you'll be rewarded in the dominance factor.

Dropping the cutter may not provide as drastic results for Marmol as they will for Soria, but it's logical that without an extra pitch, Marmol will be able to focus more on the command of the pitches that he will be throwing. The good news is that closers can survive with just several main pitches, which is why starters have more success when implementing the cutter.

You can wait for saves in your drafts - it's usually a good idea to do so. Soria and Marmol won't be among the top tier of closers that come off the board, anyway, mainly because people will be focusing on their failures from a year ago.

Just keep in mind that they have a much better chance for success now that they have ditched a pitch that wasn't working for them. There isn't really anyone knocking on the door in Chicago and Kansas City in case these two stoppers struggle again, either, so their leashes will be longer.





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Keith Hernandez

Keith, an editor with KFFL, joined the team as a Hot off the Wire analyst in 2008 and has been playing fantasy sports since 2005. He is involved in MLB, NFL and NASCAR content. He graduated from the University of California-San Diego in 2005 with a B.A. in Communications and was a four-year starter as a member of the baseball program.

 

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