While we have a lot of time to watch his rehab play out, talk of Adrian Peterson (knee) being ready for Week 1 should be taken with a grain of salt. "Being ready" is quite relative, and just because he is dressed for the season-opener it doesn't mean he will be productive.

I recognize that AD is a superior athlete and will rehab his tail off to get back to 100 percent as soon as possible, but history suggests he won't be at that level until the 2013 season. He will be serviceable for fantasy owners in 2012, but you have to mitigate the risk by landing him at an acceptable stage of your draft. The million dollar question: What round should you begin to look at selecting Peterson?

Would you pull the trigger?

Let us assume the draft is a standard 16-round, 12-team non-PPR format. You pick in the top half of the first round and go with an RB1 before taking a wideout in the latter portion of the second round. The third round likely brings you to a decision between a quarterback and another receiver or rusher.

Pencil in a quarterback. The fourth round is when some owners will start pondering Peterson, as he stares back from the available player pool. That may be a hair early, and you might be better off going with a second wide receiver here (especially if you're in a PPR league). You are taking a chance that Peterson comes back to you as your RB2 in the early fifth round, but you should not fret if you lose out on him at this point. The fifth is still far too early in my opinion, but if you are going to land him, especially in a league with novice owners, you will have to reach for him. Someone will take him too early based on name value or by not understanding the magnitude of his injuries.

Table: Adrian Peterson - career statistics

Year	Att/Gm	Yds/Gm	Att/TD	Rec/Gm	Yds/Gm	Rec/TD
2007	17.3	81.5	17.3	1.5	11.6	18.0
2008	18.9	86.8	23.6	2.4	22.8	36.0
2009	19.6	86.4	17.4	2.7	27.1	N/A
2010	22.7	108.9	36.3	1.3	7.9	N/A
2011	17.0	95.2	19.8	1.4	19.1	19.0

Peterson's saving grace should be his proclivity to find the end zone. If you draft him as your second back, consider him a flex play - at best - the first month or more of the regular season. In his career, he has rushed for a touchdown ever 21.9 carries. The big plays probably won't be there most of the season, and Minnesota's coaches cannot possibly be dumb enough to run him into the ground. Their 2012 season is already down the tubes, so why risk the rest of his career by pounding him all year.

Smart owners will avoid Peterson, unless he falls so far that you cannot pass on him (eighth or ninth round, for example). You will have to draft another running back that is capable of being your No. 2 at any point, because Peterson cannot safely be relied on until after midway point of the season.

Assume Peterson is around 70 percent to start the year and eventually is, say, 80 percent, then you are looking at numbers in the 211-759-9 neighborhood. That would be an average of 3.6 yards per carry. To his credit, perhaps he strengthens considerably as the year wears on and improves to a 4.0 yards-per-tote average, since he is an athletic freak. That would still give him just 844 rushing yards on the same amount of carries.

At best, AD probably just cracks 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns, but the reality is that is tough to bank on. You can find that kind of production from plenty of other backs with less risk.

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Cory J. Bonini is a senior editor at KFFL. In late 2002, Bonini joined the KFFL staff as a research analyst. He vaulted himself into one of the industry's leading fantasy analysts.

Bonini has been involved in fantasy sports since 1996. A member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association as well as Fantasy Sports Writers Association, he has been featured in print, on the radio and is also a published writer on scores of sites. Bonini co-hosted Big Lead Sports on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 2011 to 2012.

Bonini was recognized with the 2010 Best Article in Print Award from the FSWA and was a finalist for the same award in 2011. In '11, he finished first overall in the FSWA NFL experts challenge that featured 60 of the industry's best competitors.

Follow him on Twitter @CoryKFFL

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