Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft: Round 5

March 14, 2012 @ 11:52:22

By KFFL Staff

Rnd: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28
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1) Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants

Team: Steve Gardner, USA TODAY/Sports Weekly | Roster

The No. 5 starting pitcher on my board, the consistently excellent Lincecum has health, strikeouts and a great home ballpark working in his favor. Sure, his K/9 rate has decreased each of the last three seasons, but come on! He's 27 and still whiffing more than a batter per inning. A 13-14 record last year only helps make him a better value this year.

2) Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners

Team: Ray Flowers, Baseball Guys/SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio | Roster

I don't usually go for pitching early, but I'd bet the fifth and sixth rounds are going to be filled with starters being grabbed. There's nothing wrong with grabbing a guy like Hernandez that should give me 200 K and 220 innings of elite work as my staff anchor. Also considered Zack Greinke.

3) Hunter Pence, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

Team: Joe Hamrahi, Baseball Prospectus | Roster

Hunter Pence has steadily become one of my favorite players to draft in fantasy leagues. He's almost a lock now every year for 25 home runs, 90 RBI, and 90 runs. He's also learning to be more selective at the plate, which can only lead to even better offensive numbers. Then there's the fact he plays his home games now at Citizens Bank Park...

4) Michael Bourn, OF, Atlanta Braves

Team: Pasko Varnica, Mastersball | Roster

After almost picking Nelson Cruz, yet another Ranger, and Carl Crawford, who could miss the beginning of the season, I chose Michael Bourn's stolen bases, the category my team was lacking. With him, I expect my team's roto 5x5 SB category to have a respectable showing.

A huge steal?

5) Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds

Team: Howard Bender, FanGraphs | Roster

Bruce is pure power and at 25, still hasn't reached his ceiling. Strikeouts will continue to kill the batting average, but the improved walk rate over the last two seasons indicates stronger plate discipline, which could translate to a better slash line and improved totals. Considered Nelson Cruz but abstained from the injury risk.

6) Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Cleveland Indians

Team: Mark Chamberlin, Baseball Sharks | Roster

He was my Plan B to Cliff Lee, so I was a little surprised he fell another round. He changed his swing last year and stayed healthy - it showed. This is not a one year wonder; Asdrubal is a perennial 20-20 stick.

7) Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox

Team: Nicholas Minnix, KFFL | Roster

I'm shocked that no one was willing to take the plunge before this. I looked at Crawford in the third and fourth rounds - there was no way that I could pass up this annual first-rounder any longer. The track record is too long, the lineup too good, the chance of a rebound too great. This will be at minimum good value; at maximum, highway robbery.

8) CC Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees

Team: Bill Macey, Baseball HQ | Roster

I generally avoid taking SP early given their inherently more risky nature, but Sabathia represented too much of a value here. Not only are 20 wins and 200 strikeouts well within his potential, he's also been remarkably durable and is about as safe as a SP gets.

9) Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles

Team: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times | Roster

I'm firmly planted in the driver seat of Wieters' bandwagon. Continued improvement in the strikeout rate was complemented by an increase in power in 2011. He crushed southpaws last year and just needs to rediscover the ability to hit righties that he showed in 2009-2010. I have him ranked third at the position and expect something in the neighborhood of 25 home runs, a .275 average and 160 runs plus RBI.

10) Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

Team: Doug Anderson, RotoExperts | Roster

Greinke offers the upside of the top pitchers in baseball, but comes at a slightly discounted price. His ugly start in the NL really camouflages a nice season. I think a sub-3.00 ERA is not out of the question and the Brewers offense is still good enough to support 15-18 wins.

11) Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees

Team: Tim Heaney, KFFL | Roster

Look at that ... a hot cornerman I considered two rounds ago fell. Though a full season isn't a safe bet, I couldn't pass up the allure of A-Rod's 30-homer upside - especially with more potential DH AB and his new legal enhancement - for my corner infield spot. The tier of 1B I usually target at CI isn't a priority anymore, and maybe this increases other owners' urgency to pluck one, leaving other values ripe for the picking.

12) Michael Young, 3B/1B, Texas Rangers

Team: Jeff Paur, RTSports | Roster

I needed to get a third baseman and Young was the best on the board. I actually was hoping for A-Rod here but he goes the pick before me. Ouch. Young will do fine, though. His power numbers aren't great but he'll hit for a high average and drive in a good number of runs in this lineup. I'm not expecting a repeat of his huge '11 season, but he can come close at this stage of his career.

Rnd: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28
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