I'm not one to rush into drafting closers this fantasy baseball season. Of course, as you'll find out in the annual Baseball Analysis Draft (which debuts on the site Monday and continues for 28 juicy rounds), the industry feels the same way, which has created some tasty values.

Crack in Bell

One of the reasons I remain cautious about the market, however, is the Miami Marlins' Heath Bell, whom many might still believe is an unquestionably unstoppable ... stopper.

Even with Bell heading to a much better offense and another pitcher-friendly atmosphere (expected, at least), I beg to differ.

His frequent implementation of a sinkerball last season cut down his strikeout rate to 7.32 per nine and swinging-strike percentage from 10.6 to a career-low 8.3, per Fangraphs. Opponents produced a 21.3 percent liner rate against him - his highest allowed since '06.

Though his 2011 average velocities show he could luck into a better K/9, that's not looking like his approach anymore, and at age 34, can he sustain that FBv for another season? Will Wii Fit save him again?

Bell's K column won't reside at the levels of some firemen you can snag later on, like Sergio Santos and Rafael Betancourt. That advantage he used to offer is gone. Of course, he'll still hover near the top 10 at his position, at least in drafters' eyes, thanks to his experience.

Still, I'd rather avoid ringing Bell (almost made it through pun-free) and take a chance on Ryan Madson, Joakim Soria and Carlos Marmol, or wait on Santos or Betancourt or take a chance on Kenley Jansen winning the job eventually.

Bell will still be a fine buy at the right price, as long as you don't expect his increasingly hittable arsenal to magically return him to previously overpowering levels. He isn't the Liberty Bell yet, but the crack will get worse.

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KFFLians are saying....

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1

Eddy, at 06:09 on 02/10/12, says: Omg, you sound like a fantasy looser all the way....

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2

Tim Heaney, at 03:23 on 02/11/12, says: By "looser," Eddy, you mean I'm not as tight?

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3

Frank, at 08:35 on 02/11/12, says: I hope your wrong on Bell Tim. I rang him up as the 14th pick in the 8th rd in a 20 team 29 rd draft...also nailed Madson two rds later...anyway- it's better to be looser than a loser...yes?

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4

Tim Heaney, at 11:46 on 02/11/12, says: Frank, that's not a bad price on him at all, especially since he's a CL2; I wouldn't hesitate to take him there, depending on what else is available. I'm just worried some might consider him automatic, and by the way he changed things last season, he's not looking like the shutdown guy he once was. If Miami changes his approach or something else comes up that changes my opinion, I might "loosen" up about him. Just be wary, that's all. Who else do you have in that draft so far?

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5

Frank, at 09:27 on 02/11/12, says: 20 team redraft-my pick position was 7&14: Votto-M Holliday-Andrus-Soo Choo-Youklis - Ackley - Fister - Scherzer - Bell - Madson - J Garcia - Pagan - Boesch - Cozart - Nova - Reimhold - Stauffer -Hochevar -LaHair -S Perez -Bernadina -Bastardo Thats the active roster going in-comments are appreciated.

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Since the Boston University alum joined KFFL in 2006, his work has been featured by USA Today/Sports Weekly and Yahoo! Sports, among numerous publications.

Tim competes in Tout Wars and LABR and appears every Wednesday on 1570 AM WNST in Baltimore, as well as frequently on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio.

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