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Tim Tebow a winner, but what about his fantasy football value?

November 28, 2011


Tebowing out in full effect

Just win, baby. That's Tim Tebow's and the Denver Broncos' motto after Tebow has posted a 5-1 record - including 4-0 on the road - after taking the starting QB gig away from Kyle Orton (now with the Kansas City Chiefs) in Week 5. Tebow's resume also includes three road wins against divisional foes.

It hasn't been very pretty, but at the end of the day, the W is all that matters.

When it comes to fantasy football, Tebow has added value because of what he can do with his legs, but this hasn't helped out much. He's gone over 100 yards rushing in just one contest - Week 9 against the Oakland Raiders - and has three rushing scores.

Now that he has six starts under his belt, we have a better idea of what he can do (for the rest of this season) and what his fantasy value is. Unfortunately, team victories don't count toward QB points, so in my book, Tebow is a QB2 or spot start based on the right matchup.

Too bad he doesn't have running back eligibility, right?

Although there have been small improvements on a week-to-week basis, Tebow has a ton of maturing to do in the passing game. His accuracy at times has been horrendous and downright embarrassing, but he always seems to make the perfect pass at the most opportune time.

The fantasy football problem here is that Tebow won't be throwing enough, or completing enough passes for that matter, to be considered a full-time fantasy starter. At least not for the remainder of this season. After having Tebow attempt 20-plus passes in his first three starts, including 39 passing tries against the Detroit Lions in a blowout loss, John Fox and the coaching staff have made a drastic adjustment to the Tebow game plan; in his last three starts, he's attempted eight, 20 and 18 throws.

It's clear that Fox is intent on pounding the ball on the ground with Willis McGahee and Tebow, and the read option is still very prevalent in this offense. Controlling the ball and keeping the opposing offense off the field has been a main focus and a main reason why the Broncos are tasting success.

Fox and the rest of the staff deserve major props for gutting the playbook to cater to Tebow's strengths. They've put him in the best possible position to succeed, and he has. Another thing in Tebow's favor has been his ability to limit the turnovers and keep the ball safe; he's tossed eight TDs to one interception. Limiting his attempts has obviously played a part in that.

The game plan in Denver will limit Tebow's fantasy ceiling, but there is still some upside to be had if he can improve his passing game. Don't look for that to come this year, though.

One thing I know for sure: Tebow isn't the Mile High messiah; he can't carry the entire team on his back to a playoff appearance. He has shown he can be a game manager and clutch performer, but he's not an impact player at quarterback - not just yet, anyway.

The defense in Denver has stepped up in a big way with Tebow under center. Don't overlook that. Von Miller already looks like a man among boys in his rookie season. I'm already hearing people comparing him to Lawrence Taylor - for his on-field contributions, of course.

The young offensive line is outperforming expectations and is a big reason why the running game has dominated under Tebow. If this unit can stay healthy and intact in future seasons, Tebow could be running wild.

The point here is that Tebow needs some help in order to succeed. He's getting most of the credit for Denver's turnaround, but an all-around team effort is the real reason. Tebow's fantasy football success will continue to hinge on whether the offense can stick to their game plan.

I'd still be hesitant to start Tebow unless you had Matt Cassel, Matt Schaub or Jay Cutler, or like I mentioned earlier, he has a strong matchup. However, there is upside to be had here in future seasons if he can somehow fix his aerial deficiencies. All the guy does is prove everyone wrong, so don't be surprised.





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Keith Hernandez

Keith, an editor with KFFL, joined the team as a Hot off the Wire analyst in 2008 and has been playing fantasy sports since 2005. He is involved in MLB, NFL and NASCAR content. He graduated from the University of California-San Diego in 2005 with a B.A. in Communications and was a four-year starter as a member of the baseball program.

 

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