Fantasy Football on Target

Fantasy Football on Target: Week 9

November 2, 2011 @ 13:01:34

By Tim Heaney
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Fantasy Football Targets | Fantasy Football Stats

Opportunity in the NFL can translate to success in fantasy football. While a wide receiver or tight end may have caught a few passes in a given week, his target total might have been double or triple that. Those looks may not have turned into receptions one week but might in the future.

Whose involvement is worth watching? Are these target numbers a trend in the making or an aberration?

Hines Ward's health isn't going to define Antonio Brown's fantasy value anymore. He's emerging as a legit midrange threat in the Pittsburgh Steelers' aerial game. He has the trust of Ben Roethlisberger, especially as he's seemingly performing more three- and five-step drops lately because of his lingering foot injury.

Top Week 8 wide receivers

Rk	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec	Rec%
1	Antonio Brown	PIT	15	9	60.0
2	Pierre Garcon	IND	15	7	46.7
3	Reggie Wayne	IND	14	5	35.7
4	Sidney Rice	SEA	14	7	50.0
5	Brandon Lloyd	STL	13	6	46.2
6	Eddie Royal	DEN	13	6	46.2
7	Eric Decker	DEN	12	6	50.0
8	Anquan Boldin	BAL	12	7	58.3
9	Dwayne Bowe	KC	11	4	36.4
10	Greg Little	CLE	11	4	36.4
11	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	10	6	60.0
12	A.J. Green	CIN	10	4	40.0

Maybe you can use this stat line to sell Wayne. Maybe. The fact he has caught 49.3 percent of Indianapolis Colts offerings won't do you much good. He's only a WR3.
Rice was happy to have Tarvaris Jackson back behind center. For all the grief Jackson earns, he's the better commander of this rusty passing vessel right now, and Rice performs better when his former Minnesota Vikings teammate is locating him. Rice is locked in to WR3 value, at minimum.
A little more Rocky this week in the Denver Broncos' targets. They had to rally back from a large deficit in Week 8. Demaryius Thomas, their Week 7 target leader, was nonexistent, while Royal and Decker took the reins, especially in garbage time. This looks like a rotating situation, with Decker and Thomas holding more upside than the reception-defined Royal. Decker is in the slight lead at the moment, but it won't hurt to own a piece of this passing game. Start them? Not as solid a strategy if you have other more efficient wideouts that aren't dependant on Tim Tebow. And given Tebow's disappointing performance, a QB change could be coming, increasing this crop's flux.
A furious second half gave Boldin his best game of the year. Joe Flacco showed signs of competency, which should bode well for Q ... except for this week, when the Pittsburgh Steelers will make him a risky fantasy play.

Top Week 8 tight ends

Rk	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec	Rec%
1	Jason Witten	DAL	12	4	33.3
2	Dallas Clark	IND	10	6	60.0
3	Heath Miller	PIT	9	7	77.8
4	Fred Davis	WAS	9	8	88.9
5	Brent Celek	PHI	9	7	77.8
6	Ed Dickson	BAL	9	6	66.7
7	Rob Gronkowski	NE	9	7	77.8
8	Marcedes Lewis	JAC	9	4	44.4
9	Dennis Pitta	BAL	8	6	75.0
10	Jimmy Graham	NO	8	4	50.0

The Indianapolis Colts had to make another furious comeback. Clark proved he can be involved; he even had tied his season high in catches. All things equal, he's still a flex play since he typically stays in to block any threatening pass rusher.
Much of Miller's production came on the first drive of the game. An isolated air strike shouldn't slap Miller on your radar, but the Pittsburgh Steelers vet remains a capable backup who'll do this once in awhile.
Don't write off this Celek workload.
Dickson and Pitta will do this from time to time, especially in situations like the Baltimore Ravens' furious second-half comeback last week. Their cannibalism in an already inconsistent offensive role limits either's upside. Dickson is the first choice if you need to dip your toes here. Hopefully you don't.
Lewis' season-high involvement and catch total was probably his maximum production as long as Blaine Gabbert is directing the Jacksonville Jaguars' plays. He remains a risky play.

Rivers run dry

"Worst day ever?" Worst season, for sure, in a shocking lack of San Diego Chargers jolt with Philip Rivers' struggles short-circuiting this once electric passing game. Antonio Gates looks relatively safe in his production, and Malcom Floyd has come on since Gates' return opened up more field to work with.

Not all well for Welker?

But Rivers' issues with the deep ball have zapped out Vincent Jackson's production. Good news: V-Jax has been sought out 22 times in the last three weeks; it's not that he's being ignored. Whether Rivers is fighting an injury, dealing with personal issues, overly missing Darren Sproles, or is merely battling bouts of inconsistency, there's some upside to Jackson if No. 17 can right his ship over the next few weeks. And with the Chargers' banged-up backfield, they'll probably be forced to throw often in the coming weeks anyway - back to what they're used to on offense. Heck, Billy Volek is one of the best backups in the league, so Jackson could go nuts with him at QB if needed.

Jackson's buy-low stock outweighs his downside at this point. You'll have to be patient, but the odds of this offense warming up in the cold months. If SD can hold off the pass rush, a matchup with the Green Bay Packers' secondary in Week 9 isn't a bad time to start.

Miles to go

Speaking of perfect storms, Miles Austin's last two weeks are suddenly slapping him with a "sell" label. Against the St. Louis Rams two weeks ago, the Dallas Cowboys leaned on DeMarco Murray's historic ground day while mixing in Jason Witten and Dez Bryant; Austin earned just five targets and two snares. Versus the Philadelphia Eagles' elite secondary, Dallas' offense was flustered overall, and Austin escaped with only three looks (all caught). Romo blamed the coverage for not looking Austin's way enough.

This offense boasts enough weapons that one or two will often get lost in the shuffle; drafters of any Cowboy knew this coming into 2011. But in the next four weeks, Dallas plays the Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins. After the receivers' virtual absence Sunday, they'll be shoved back into frequent activity immediately. Buy low on Austin now.

Well, Welker?

Wes Welker's quiet Week 8 can be attributed to the Pittsburgh Steelers' press man coverage - more than they've ever run before, per safety Ryan Clark. Have they found the blueprint in defending the New England Patriots' PPR pest? Hard to bench Welker in any league, but definitely a trend worth watching, especially for owners of Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

***

First-half review

Season leaders: WR catch percentage (min. 40 targets)

Rk	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec	Rec%
1	Mike Wallace	PIT	58	43	74.1
2	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	54	40	74.1
3	Lance Moore	NO	41	30	73.2
4	Michael Jenkins	MIN	40	29	72.5
5	Greg Jennings	GB	58	42	72.4
6	Percy Harvin	MIN	43	31	72.1
7	Jason Avant	PHI	43	31	72.1
8	David Nelson	BUF	44	31	70.5
9	Deion Branch	NE	43	30	69.8
10	Marques Colston	NO	42	29	69.1
11	Nate Washington	TEN	48	33	68.8
12	Wes Welker	NE	83	57	68.7
13	Victor Cruz	NYG	42	28	66.7
14	Stevie Johnson	BUF	59	39	66.1
15	Calvin Johnson	DET	74	47	63.5
16	Steve Smith	CAR	73	46	63.0
17	Miles Austin	DAL	42	26	61.9
18	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	62	38	61.3
19	Sidney Rice	SEA	40	24	60.0
20	Julio Jones	ATL	42	25	59.5

Avant, typically a middle-of-the-field option, has flourished this season thanks to opponents' increased efforts to snuff out DeSean Jackson. As they've been doing with Brent Celek, the Philadelphia Eagles want Avant to be more available to Michael Vick for underneath routes to keep the QB upright. The veteran catcher has become sturdy PPR depth.
Nelson, despite his recent struggles on adjusting to the outside, has snared eight of the 11 passes sent his way over the last two weeks. With Donald Jones (ankle) possibly returning this week, Nelson could move back inside to the slot, a productive spot in the Buffalo Bills' Chan Gailey-guided offense.
Jenkins isn't really a big-play guy, but that's how he accrued most of his Week 7 points. This is a case where you shouldn't trust percentage: Look at his week-to-week target and catch totals. Some inflation from a few big weeks might cause some to overvalue his potential.
The presence of many big-play wideouts in general says that type-downgrading guys like Megatron, Wallace, Jennings and Austin in PPR leagues isn't practical. Good receivers will get open at any area of the field.

Season leaders: TE catch percentage (min. 20 targets)

Rk	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec	Rec%
1	Vernon Davis	SF	31	27	87.1
2	Jake Ballard	NYG	24	19	79.2
3	Rob Gronkowski	NE	47	36	76.6
4	Heath Miller	PIT	40	30	75.0
5	Randy McMichael	SD	27	20	74.1
6	Fred Davis	WAS	44	32	72.7
7	Dennis Pitta	BAL	23	16	69.6
8	Evan Moore	CLE	23	16	69.6
9	Brandon Pettigrew	DET	60	41	68.3
10	Jermichael Finley	GB	37	25	67.6
11	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	52	35	67.3
12	Jimmy Graham	NO	74	49	66.2
13	Todd Heap	ARI	20	13	65.0
14	Owen Daniels	HOU	48	31	64.6
15	Aaron Hernandez	NE	45	29	64.4
16	Jason Witten	DAL	64	40	62.5
17	Jermaine Gresham	CIN	41	25	61.0
18	Antonio Gates	SD	28	17	60.7
19	Joel Dreessen	HOU	20	12	60.0
20	Daniel Fells	DEN	24	14	58.3

Daniels' touchdown promise has been consistently gnawed at by Dreessen's vulturing. It limits his upside, but Daniels is still a top-10 commodity.
Moore, Fells and Heap won't see the field enough to become consistent fantasy options, but this shows they can at least be decent fill-ins for deep leagues.

Buy

Player	Tm	Notes
Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley	SF, GB	When they're involved, they're involved. They boast some primo matchups on the horizon for an improving throwing setup.
Percy Harvin	MIN	As Christian Ponder starts to figure things out, Harvin will statistically follow. MIN gave him a rushing TD - they're figuring out how to get the ball in his hands early, which is vital to him contributing.

Sell

Player	Tm	Notes
Victor Cruz	NYG	Yes, he has talent. But have you seen some of his TDs this year? Big, busted plays, many of them with sloppy missed tackles. He relies on the big play. A Hakeem Nicks injury would give him legit consistent value, but if you can gain a massive profit in an area of need by giving him up, you shouldn't hesitate.
Stevie Johnson	BUF	Depends on your WR situation: 2 upcoming matchups with Darrelle Revis, a passing game that's getting some wind taken out of it.... He's talented and will see targets, but what will he be able to do with them? Depending on your situation, it might be best to let someone else worry about Weeks 9 and 12.

Risers

(Week 8 targets)

Player	Tm	Notes
Jonathan Baldwin (8)	KC	Taking targets from Steve Breaston. Physicality displayed in big Week 8 TD grab. Slot lineup produces matchup issues in passing O that's suddenly clicking. Won't always play this big, but has the potential to do so consistently.
Jake Ballard (7)	NYG	See the TE season leaders table. Becoming a security blanket a la Kevin Boss with Eli Manning at top of his game right now.
Braylon Edwards (7)	SF	Merely by being healthy. This is hardly an air-it-out setup, but Alex Smith is becoming more competent. In deep leagues, any hint of receiving attention is worth pursuing.

Monitor

(Week 8 targets)

Player	Tm	Notes
Taylor Price (1)	NE	Chad Ochocinco ... irrelevant. Price will see more work. Anyone with potential for more reps with Tom Brady is highlighted. Need a WR7?
Brandon Gibson (6)	STL	Another trip on the wideout merry-go-round. Danario Alexander is hurt, and Mark Clayton's 2011 is in jeopardy. Gibson could start on the outside for at least Week 9 versus the Arizona Cardinals.

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Author Bio

Tim Heaney

Since the Boston University alum joined KFFL in 2006, his work has been featured by USA Today/Sports Weekly and Yahoo! Sports, among numerous publications.

Tim competes in Tout Wars and LABR and appears every Wednesday on 1570 AM WNST in Baltimore, as well as frequently on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio.

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