Fantasy football analysis draft: Round 13
KFFL.com's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft (FAD) brings you behind the scenes on all 16 rounds of an actual fantasy football league draft. Each of our experts participating give you their analysis on why they took the player they did. This is not a mock fantasy football draft; this league will be played out during the course of the 2011 fantasy football season ... each participant is drafting to win!
Reason and statistical expectations: With DE Julius Peppers causing havoc on the end, the Bears are an opportunistic defense that causes turnovers. WR Devin Hester is also a threat in the punt-return game. I like the Bears' defense more than the Giants' defense with their injuries right now. I went with the defense here sensing a big DT run upcoming and didn't want to miss out.
Reason and statistical expectations: Gronkowski had a very good rookie season in 2010 with 10 touchdowns and he should have a very good season in 2011 as well. Gronkowski may not get a lot of catches because of the receivers on the team and tight end Aaron Hernandez, but he will be able to put up numbers in the Patriots offense. I would be happy if he could produce around 50 catches, 650 yards and seven to nine touchdowns.
Reason and statistical expectations: Last year Williams resurrected his forlorn NFL career, taking advantage of his chance in Seattle, catching 65 balls for 751 yards and two receiving touchdowns. Head Coach Pete Carroll had faith in the former USC product, and Williams delivered. In the offseason, the Seahawks signed him to a three-year contract extension. Despite the offseason additions of tight end Zach Miller and wide receiver Sidney Rice, and even a new offensive coordinator, you have to believe that this suddenly highly motivated player will catch at least 45-55 balls for 600-700 yards and three to four touchdowns. Okay, I know quarterback is a mess in Seattle, but it was a mess last year, too. He is a good sleeper to gamble on late in the draft.
Reason and statistical expectations: Scott presents a nice change of pace to lead rusher Cedric Benson. Benson has a reputation for being injury-prone, and Scott has taken advantage of his opportunities in the past. The Bengals are returning to a run-first offense this year under offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, which means Benson and Scott should see plenty of touches. A move to a West Coast offense and the presence of a rookie quarterback could also mean more receptions for Scott.
Reason and statistical expectations: Cook finally got his chance to be a featured player in the Titans offense at the end of last season, and he totaled 12 catches for 154 yards and a score in the final two games. He is big, fast and ridiculously athletic, and word out of Tennessee is that he will be a major part of the team's passing game. Matt Hasselbeck likes what he sees, and if Jake Locker gets control of the offense, you know he will be looking for a safety valve. I expect a breakout year for Cook, and I am not opposed to playing two tight ends in a PPR format with a flex spot. I'll take a No. 1 tight end over a mediocre No. 2 receiver any day.
Reason and statistical expectations: With few rounds remaining, I didn't need a sixth receiver, but in leagues this shallow, which have owners with quick trigger fingers, there's often good stuff available, like a backup fantasy passer. There's too much upside in Gibson to pass when other available choices have a lot less going for them. Up-and-comer Sam Bradford is directing the high-flying offense of Josh McDaniels. Gibson, entering his third year, has reportedly been stellar throughout the preseason. He'll be No. 1B or 1C; Danny Amendola is the 1A blanket, and Mike Sims-Walker hasn't been as good as some advertise. Although I won't bank on it, Gibson could easily hit 75 catches for 1,000 yards and seven TDs - or better.
Reason and statistical expectations: I rarely handcuff players, but Maurice Jones-Drew has taken a pounding the past few years and worries me. Jennings showed flashes last year and would be the primary toter in a run-first system if MJD goes down. I've targeted him in draft in which I didn't own MJD. I have no statistical expectation, but if Jones-Drew goes down for a long period of time, I think Jennings can regularly produce 15 to 20 fantasy points per game in this format.
Reason and statistical expectations: Sproles is expected to serve as a third-down back who will also be used in pass-catching situations. In this sense, he's very much like the player he ended up replacing, Reggie Bush. He's a solid contributor on special teams, but he's not expected to carry the ball much with the presence of Pierre Thomas and rookie Mark Ingram. He should be good for 300 rushing yards and 55-60 catches for 500 receiving yards.
Reason and statistical expectations: Reunited and it feels ... not as a good as originally planned. That's what the scratched-up record playing inside the head of Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz sounds like right now. Despite having the best season of his career while in the Motor City under Martz, Roy Williams has gotten off to a rough start in Chitown after getting the boot in Big D. He's struggling in camp and could be headed to the dog house, along with Johnny Knox. The only other wideout on the radar is Devin Hester, who lacks consistency and still looks very green at receiver. You know who isn't rocking the S.S. Martz? Bennett. Quarterback Jay Cutler had success with Bennett at Vanderbilt but it hasn't been a dynamite connection in the pros yet. Still, based on all the drama going on in camp, Bennett has a good shot see the most targets and lead the Bears in most receiving categories.
Reason and statistical expectations: Jones isn't likely to start, but he'll be part of the powerful offense in Green Bay. If injuries occur and he gets a chance to start, who knows?
Reason and statistical expectations: His knee and Fred Davis are reasons to be concerned. At this point, however, his presence proves the depth of this position class. When healthy, he'll be leaned on by an offense undergoing a QB transition. A 60-reception season will do, factoring in a game or two lost via injury, with 700 yards and six or seven TDs. I'll look to Davis to replace him if needed.
Reason and statistical expectations: I like Olsen's chances this year to step forward as an elite tight end; he has a rookie quarterback on a bad offense starving for playmakers. 70 receptions, 800 yards and five touchdowns are within his reach.
How do you feel about each selection? Would you have made the same move? We want to hear your thoughts in the comments area at the bottom of the page. If you disagree with a pick, let your thoughts be known.
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