KFFL.com's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft (FAD) brings you behind the scenes on all 16 rounds of an actual fantasy football league draft. Each of our experts participating give you their analysis on why they took the player they did. This is not a mock fantasy football draft; this league will be played out during the course of the 2011 fantasy football season ... each participant is drafting to win!
1) DeMarco Murray, running back, Dallas Cowboys
Team: Ryan R. Bonini | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: I thought I'd be selecting Roy Helu Jr. here, but Cory selected him in the last round, forcing me to change gears slightly. Strongly considered a tight end here, too, but those that remain are all very similar so I'm content waiting another full turn. I'm a lot higher on Helu than Murray, but like Murray's situation nonetheless. Felix Jones doesn't have feature back written all over him, Marion Barber III is gone and Tashard Choice just doesn't seem to be on head coach Jason Garrett's radar. Murray could be that every-down back the Dallas offense craves; or, at the very least, a solid first- and second-down option with looks around the goal. His hamstring problems in camp worry me, but deep on my bench limits the need for him requiring a
significant early-season role. Floor expectations: 600 yards rushing and six touchdowns.
2) Steve Breaston, wide receiver, Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Tim Heaney | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: Admittedly a little safer pick than I usually try to make at this juncture, but he's Austin Collie insurance. Breaston carries more weight in PPR setups, so this is a solid spot for him as a WR4. He knows Todd Haley's offense and, despite his early-camp issues picking things up, could become a force as defenses shade toward Dwayne Bowe. Breaston could claim 75 receptions, with 700 yards and 6-8 touchdowns, if things break his way; hopefully I'll only need him as a bye fill-in and occasional flex play.
3) Jacoby Ford, wide receiver, Oakland Raiders
Team: Dan Dobish | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: I like Jacoby Ford's upside, but his broken hand has me a little concerned. All indications are that he'll be ready. It's a risky pick, but Darrius Heyward-Bey hasn't been consistent and Louis Murphy is already hurt and will miss time in the regular season. Ford showed glimpses of brilliance last season, so maybe 800 yards and six TDs isn't too much to expect.
4) C.J. Spiller, running back, Buffalo Bills
Team: Eric McClung | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: Maybe Spiller starts, maybe he doesn't. For now, it appears he's the only running back left on the board that has a decent shot at doing so. Either way, Fred Jackson is going to be in the mix so I'm not expecting a lot here from my RB4. Head coach Chan Gailey doesn't have much in the passing game and Spiller could find a niche role in that phase of the game, boosting his return in PPR. Spiller recorded 440 total yards of offense as a rookie, doubling that would be pretty sweet but I'm not holding my breath. Obviously, whatever happens to Jackson will ultimately swing this selection in one way or the other.
5) Danny Woodhead, running back, New England Patriots
Team: Jared Byrd | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: I needed to add some depth at running back, and selected Woodhead because of his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield (a valuable trait to have in PPR leagues). Woodhead surprised everyone - including his former team, the New York Jets - by breaking out for 547 rushing yards, 379 receiving yards and six total touchdowns with the Patriots last season. However, he is unlikely to match those numbers this year, thanks to the presence of rookie running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. Unless someone ahead of him on the depth chart gets injured, expect about 400 rushing yards and 350 receiving yards.
6) Johnny Knox, wide receiver, Chicago Bears
Team: Cory J. Bonini | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: Even though he has lost his starting job to Roy Williams, Knox will out-produce him and eventually reclaim his split end spot. Chicago's OL gives me reason to be concerned, as it will be a work-in-progress much of the year. Yet, I can't complain if Knox doesn't top 800 yards, but I have a sneaking suspicion that he will blow the doors off 900 yards and score at least six times.
7) Javon Ringer, running back, Tennessee Titans
Team: Nicholas Minnix | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: On Monday, Aug. 22, this looked like an awesome pick. On Tuesday, Aug. 23, it looks like a wasted choice. OK, it was probably a wasted pick anyway, but here's the worst-case scenario: Chris Johnson signs an extension and begins practicing with one week of the exhibition season remaining. Oh darn. CJ2K is incredibly rusty and susceptible to an injury. The Titans can't rely on him early on. They lean on the explosive Ringer for a couple of games. What if Johnson goes down? The Ringer smells 1,500 total yards and double-digit TDs.
8) Dustin Keller, tight end, New York Jets
Team: Brian Polking | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: He had the best season of his NFL career last year, catching 55 passes for 687 yards. A more experienced Mark Sanchez should help drive those numbers higher, and let's not forget that he was a first round pick after all. Keller was leaned on heavily in the AFC Championship game last year, catching eight passes. I expect that chemistry to continue in 2011-12, leading to career highs across the board for Keller this season.
9) LaDainian Tomlinson, running back, New York Jets
Team: Keith Hernandez | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: Tomlinson has surprised the coaching staff in camp and hasn't lost much of his explosiveness at age 32. His experience and effectiveness in picking up blitzes makes him the unquestioned third-down back. Shonn Greene will limit LT's carries, but Greene is already sidelined and hasn't been a full-time starter since college. In a PPR league, Tomlinson will be effective as a RB4. I'm expecting at least 30 catches and around five to seven total touchdowns.
10) Philadelphia Eagles defensive team/special teams
Team: Jack Douglas | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: The Philadelphia Eagles traditionally rely on a high pressure defense, which relies on getting to the quarterback and causing turnovers. In 2010, the Eagles picked off 21 passes, recovered 10 fumbles, had 39 sacks and had three defensive touchdowns. With the offseason additions they have made, this "Dream Team" should do a little better. With kick returner DeSean Jackson and a revamped defense, I predict something like 25 interceptions, 12-15 fumbles recovered, 40-45 sacks and four to five touchdowns from their defense and speciaThey are a top-3 defense and special teams unit this year.
11) Marcedes Lewis, tight end, Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: Tim Piotrowski | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: Lewis became a very productive fantasy player last season because he was tied for the league lead among tight ends with 10 touchdowns and should have a big role in the offense this season. The Jacksonville wide receivers are young and relatively inexperienced, so Lewis could be look to often during the early part of the season. I am hoping for around 60 catches, 700 yards and at least seven touchdowns.
12) Hines Ward, wide receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: Ryan Dodson | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: Ward's better days are behind him, and he has receivers emerging behind him. However, he's still a commodity in PPR leagues. At this pick, there is some upside for the 35-year-old. He posted 59-755-5, and that was without QB Ben Roethlisberger absent for four games. Numbers comparable to those would be just fine for the end of the 10th round.
How do you feel about each selection? Would you have made the same move? We want to hear your thoughts in the comments area at the bottom of the page. If you disagree with a pick, let your thoughts be known.
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