KFFL.com's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft (FAD) brings you behind the scenes on all 16 rounds of an actual fantasy football league draft. Each of our experts participating give you their analysis on why they took the player they did. This is not a mock fantasy football draft; this league will be played out during the course of the 2011 fantasy football season ... each participant is drafting to win!
1) Ryan Mathews, running back, San Diego Chargers
Team: Ryan R. Bonini | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: I went into this draft with the thought to take a few more chances than I typically do with my conservative draft style. Mathews is the fourth selection that fits that mold. We saw some brilliant flashes out of him last year ... but they were just flashes. He'll likely be tied to a committee attack this year, but I'm banking on his physical talents standing out amongst the team's backs and earning him more playing time. Since Mathews is my third running back (provided DMC stays healthy), I can be patient with him. I anticipate 800 yards rushing and eight rushing touchdowns to go along with 40 receptions, 300 receiving yards and one receiving score.
2) Marshawn Lynch, running back, Seattle Seahawks
Team: Tim Heaney | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: Considered Joseph Addai among others here, but Lynch is one of my favorite midrange value RBs this year. I think Leon Washington will get his share of carries eventually, and Justin Forsett could remain a factor, but Seattle is going with a run-first style with much-improved offensive line personnel and philosophy. Lynch could easily gain 1,000 even in a shared setup. I'll aim for that, plus nine total touchdowns and about 25 catches.
3) Jonathan Stewart, running back, Carolina Panthers
Team: Dan Dobish | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: Stewart probably went pretty early, but since I have DeAngelo Williams already, I wanted to make sure I got the other guy who will see carries just in case injuries crop up. They always do in the Carolina backfield.
4) Joseph Addai, running back, Indianapolis Colts
Team: Eric McClung | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: Addai isn't going to break big plays or put up huge numbers but, when healthy, he's a dependable RB3 that can typically post at least 70 or more total yards per game. Addai has job security after landing a new contract and the fact Donald Brown stinks. Rookie Delone Carter can't match Addai in the passing game, both as a receiver and a blocker, but could steal some work at the goal line. Of the remaining running backs on the board, I'm leery of their roles to begin the season, thus locking into Addai now. In the coming rounds, there will be far more wide receivers left to choose from I'd rather trust to plug into my remaining starting slots than the leftover backs.
5) Santana Moss, wide receiver, Washington Redskins
Team: Jared Byrd | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: At age 31, Santana managed to have a career year in 2010 (93 receptions and 1,115 yards) despite the less-than-desirable quarterback situation in Washington. I wouldn't be surprised if his numbers dipped in 2011 - not only because the team's QB position remains shaky, but also because Jabar Gaffney and Donte' Stallworth provide depth the team lacked at receiver last year. Moss should be good for 75-80 receptions, 950-1,000 receiving yards and six to eight TDs.
6) Beanie Wells, running back, Arizona Cardinals
Team: Cory J. Bonini | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: This was before Ryan Williams (knee) was lost for the year; I've been high on Beanie much of the summer. I think he has a chip on his shoulder and enough talent to prove his critics wrong. He isn't much of a PPR threat but should be in weekly consideration for my flex spot. I'll be happy with around 1,200 offensive yards and eight scores.
7) Vernon Davis, tight end, San Francisco 49ers
Team: Nicholas Minnix | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: At the time, the running backs and wide receivers available just didn't play my tune. I'm not ordinarily a drafter of tight ends early, but if you play it the same way all the time, it gets stale and you lose perspective. Davis is Alex Smith's favorite target and will remain so in what is reportedly an offense that heavily emphasizes the tight end. Braylon Edwards and (maybe) Michael Crabtree aren't studs, but they'll command attention. The No. 6 overall pick in 2006 and one of the NFL's best red zone weapons is a good bet to catch 70 balls again, to approach 1,000 yards and to score 10 times.
8) Fred Jackson, running back, Buffalo Bills
Team: Brian Polking | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: Despite basically riding the bench for the first five games of last season while the Buffalo front office shopped Marshawn Lynch, Jackson still finished with almost 1,000 yards on the ground and added 31 catches. Both those totals should increase this season when he gets the chance to be the feature back for the entire year. I expect Jackson to have a repeat of his 2009-10 campaign when he topped 1,000 yards rushing and caught 46 passes.
9) Dallas Clark, tight end, Indianapolis Colts
Team: Keith Hernandez | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: Injuries are a minor concern with Clark, but he appears to be fully healthy after suffering a major wrist injury last year, which limited him to just six games. In those six games, he still managed to grab 37 passes for three scores. In 2009, he put up 100 catches, 1,106 yards and 10 TDs. Clark is an elite tight end that could easily put up the top numbers at his position in 2011. Clark has excellent hands, and oh yeah, Peyton Manning is still the man in Indy. As Peyton's favorite target down the seam, I'm expecting Clark to haul in 80-90 passes and approach another 1,000-yard season.
10) Brandon Jacobs, running back, New York Giants
Team: Jack Douglas | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: The word out of the New York Giants' camp this summer indicates that Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw will split carries in 2011. My belief is that they will split something like 60 percent for Bradshaw and 40 percent for Jacobs, with Jacobs continuing to be a battering ram near the goal line. In addition, Bradshaw seems to fumble a lot and possibly could fumble his way out of the starting job. The Giants run the ball a lot, so good production for both backs is expected. Based on this and Jacobs' prior performances, my estimate for him in 2011 is 800-900 rushing yards, 8-10 rushing touchdowns and about 10 receptions for less than 100 yards receiving.
11) BenJarvus Green-Ellis, running back, New England Patriots
Team: Tim Piotrowski | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: The Law Firm did a majority of his fantasy scoring on the ground list season and likely will get his share of touches again this season. There is some risk because of the other options at running back, but Green-Ellis has shown he can be productive when given the opportunity. I will be happy if he rushes for around 950 yards and had at least eight touchdowns.
12) Sidney Rice, wide receiver, Seattle Seahawks
Team: Ryan Dodson | Team Roster | League Scoring
Reason and statistical expectations: I thought about going for a tight end here, but there was too much potential in these two picks. Rice is coming off a lost season due to hip surgery with something to prove. If he had a decent quarterback throwing to him, there's no chance he makes it to me at this pick. I actually considered him 20-some picks ago, so I liked the value here. Rice has the potential to be a top-15 receiver if healthy, but somewhere around 60 catches, 900 yards and seven or eight touchdowns will suffice.
How do you feel about each selection? Would you have made the same move? We want to hear your thoughts in the comments area at the bottom of the page. If you disagree with a pick, let your thoughts be known.
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